ATL: BERYL - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Tireman4]

Gonna be a long couple of days of "F5's", satellite and wobble watching.

Sidenote: Blue Shed is a great band name.

Back to the action.

Or Drive Shaft...and yes..this could be some anxious days coming up

[IcyTundra]

As much as I didn't want this to hit land and affect people and animals, I'm so glad it didn't just go through the channel. Had it went through the channel I think we would be looking at a Cat 4 hurricane as opposed to a Cat 1 hurricane. Let's hope that it continues to struggle and maybe landfalls as a very minimal cat 1 cane worse case. The fact that the NHC hasn't make their usual statement about it being possibly much stronger than forecast just shows you how confident they are on it not getting much stronger.

NHC did mention that there is still some uncertainty on the intensity and that the average intensity error is close to 1 category at 48 hours. The best idea is to be preparing for a cat 2 and hoping for the best.

[OuterBanker]

12:30 pm and seems to me that everything is improving. Dry air to the south and west should mix out by this afternoon. Symmetry is starting to improve. 80k cloud tops now located near center. I think this will be a hurricane by 5pm advisory. Bath waters and lack of shear I’m afraid will allow this to intensify quickly. Outflow now quite impressive. I just hope this gets to land before any large expansion can happen.

[Texashawk]

As much as I didn't want this to hit land and affect people and animals, I'm so glad it didn't just go through the channel. Had it went through the channel I think we would be looking at a Cat 4 hurricane as opposed to a Cat 1 hurricane. Let's hope that it continues to struggle and maybe landfalls as a very minimal cat 1 cane worse case. The fact that the NHC hasn't make their usual statement about it being possibly much stronger than forecast just shows you how confident they are on it not getting much stronger.

NHC did mention that there is still some uncertainty on the intensity and that the average intensity error is close to 1 category at 48 hours. The best idea is to be preparing for a cat 2 and hoping for the best.

I love how they specifically mentioned this. Makes me think they’re less confident than usual in the forecast

[MGC]

As much as I didn't want this to hit land and affect people and animals, I'm so glad it didn't just go through the channel. Had it went through the channel I think we would be looking at a Cat 4 hurricane as opposed to a Cat 1 hurricane. Let's hope that it continues to struggle and maybe landfalls as a very minimal cat 1 cane worse case. The fact that the NHC hasn't make their usual statement about it being possibly much stronger than forecast just shows you how confident they are on it not getting much stronger.

Mirrored my thoughts! I'm just north of Houston in Montgomery County most people in my circle are expecting a little rain and not really preparing. I'm the opposite. Groceries and bottled water in May, run the freezer empty before June 1st and all I have to do now is tidy up the porch and a few odds/ends in the yard. I'm elderly so that has a lot to do with how much I can get done at the last minute.

That is pretty much what we do. I keep very few items in the freezer. My parents had just made a big grocery run a week before Betsy hit in 65. No power for 3 weeks so we ate a lot of steak the next few days after Betsy. We have enough canned food for 6 months on hand and keep a lot of water too. 3 months without running water after Katrina here.......MGC

[ConvergenceZone]

As much as I didn't want this to hit land and affect people and animals, I'm so glad it didn't just go through the channel. Had it went through the channel I think we would be looking at a Cat 4 hurricane as opposed to a Cat 1 hurricane. Let's hope that it continues to struggle and maybe landfalls as a very minimal cat 1 cane worse case. The fact that the NHC hasn't make their usual statement about it being possibly much stronger than forecast just shows you how confident they are on it not getting much stronger.

NHC did mention that there is still some uncertainty on the intensity and that the average intensity error is close to 1 category at 48 hours. The best idea is to be preparing for a cat 2 and hoping for the best.

True about the 1 category in error, but remember it goes both ways. They could be off a category on the upside, but they could also be off a category on the down side, so in this case meaning a tropical storm. I still think it will hit as a hurricane, but wanted to point that out.

[mpic]

That is pretty much what we do. I keep very few items in the freezer. My parents had just made a big grocery run a week before Betsy hit in 65. No power for 3 weeks so we ate a lot of steak the next few days after Betsy. We have enough canned food for 6 months on hand and keep a lot of water too. 3 months without running water after Katrina here.......MGC

Having no water bill is nice when you have a well, but when the power goes out, it's bad lol. I keep one large trash full all year around and will fill the other one with this storm.

[Keldeo1997]

 https://x.com/RyanMaue/status/1809626576201331162

[InfernoFlameCat]

The fqct that the current pulse has not stopped but continues to produce vigorous convection may be a sign of a building CDO instead of a CCC.

[REDHurricane]

Dry air mixing starting to become evident on the upper level water vapor IR, probably won't do too much to stop strengthening though imo

[BobHarlem]

 https://x.com/RyanMaue/status/1809626576201331162

Beryl now same sat view
Harvey forecast plots:
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 24/0900Z 23.2N 92.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 24/1800Z 24.0N 93.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 25/0600Z 25.1N 94.8W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 25/1800Z 26.3N 95.8W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 26/0600Z 27.5N 97.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 27/0600Z 28.5N 97.8W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
96H 28/0600Z 28.5N 97.8W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
120H 29/0600Z 27.6N 97.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND

Harvey ^^ roughly same time out as beryl is now

[BobHarlem]

 https://twitter.com/crownweather/status/1809638212555456546

[StormPyrate]

Wow just went back and looked at Harvey as it got its act together, that would be bad

[JtSmarts]

Last vortex from recon reported 40% eyewall and winds considerably more organized. Restructuring phase still coming along.

[Into The Fog]

I live in Galveston. It would be nice if this were an "Alberto lite" and nothing more. So many were impacted down at Surfside and the West End. And they are still drying out.

[al78]

I must admit I don't get the suggestions that Beryl could reach cat 3 before its final landfall.

The core got shredded by wind shear in the western Caribbean sea and passage over the Yucatan and it takes time for a storm to rebuild the core. It has about two days before landfall i.e. not a great deal. Atmospheric conditions are far from ideal with wind shear stifling re-intensification and dry air to the south. Harvey was a different beast, it didn't develop into a tropical storm until after it has crossed the Yucatan so there wasn't a shredded core to rebuild, and Harvey formed in peak hurricane season not early July. This is not a Gilbert either, that hit the Yucatan as a cat 5 and was still a cat 2 when it came back over water, Beryl was a cat 2 and weakened to a tropical storm. I'm thinking of something like Isidore in 2002 which made landfall in the Yucatan, came back over the Gulf as a tropical storm and hardly intensified before coming ashore on the Gulf coast despite forecasts it would strengthen back to a hurricane. That was different again because I believe Isidore's inner core was destroyed from the land passage and it only started reforming hours before Gulf landfall, but in my mind it seems to be tropical cyclones frequently struggle to intensify much after a significant land crossing. Georges 2008 is another example of a landfall disrupted hurricane that struggled to reintensify much as it crossed the Gulf.

[IcyTundra]

I must admit I don't get the suggestions that Beryl could reach cat 3 before its final landfall.

The core got shredded by wind shear in the western Caribbean sea and passage over the Yucatan and it takes time for a storm to rebuild the core. It has about two days before landfall i.e. not a great deal. Atmospheric conditions are far from ideal with wind shear stifling re-intensification and dry air to the south. Harvey was a different beast, it didn't develop into a tropical storm until after it has crossed the Yucatan so there wasn't a shredded core to rebuild, and Harvey formed in peak hurricane season not early July. This is not a Gilbert either, that hit the Yucatan as a cat 5 and was still a cat 2 when it came back over water, Beryl was a cat 2 and weakened to a tropical storm. I'm thinking of something like Isidore in 2002 which made landfall in the Yucatan, came back over the Gulf as a tropical storm and hardly intensified before coming ashore on the Gulf coast despite forecasts it would strengthen back to a hurricane. That was different again because I believe Isidore's inner core was destroyed from the land passage and it only started reforming hours before Gulf landfall, but in my mind it seems to be tropical cyclones frequently struggle to intensify much after a significant land crossing. Georges 2008 is another example of a landfall disrupted hurricane that struggled to reintensify much as it crossed the Gulf.

Gustav's passage over Western Cuba certainly caused more issues than most anticipated. For Beryl conditions aren't going to get any worse and should start improving steadily as time goes on. The NHC's forecast of 85 MPH at landfall sounds about right to me.

[ConvergenceZone]

I must admit I don't get the suggestions that Beryl could reach cat 3 before its final landfall.

The core got shredded by wind shear in the western Caribbean sea and passage over the Yucatan and it takes time for a storm to rebuild the core. It has about two days before landfall i.e. not a great deal. Atmospheric conditions are far from ideal with wind shear stifling re-intensification and dry air to the south. Harvey was a different beast, it didn't develop into a tropical storm until after it has crossed the Yucatan so there wasn't a shredded core to rebuild, and Harvey formed in peak hurricane season not early July. This is not a Gilbert either, that hit the Yucatan as a cat 5 and was still a cat 2 when it came back over water, Beryl was a cat 2 and weakened to a tropical storm. I'm thinking of something like Isidore in 2002 which made landfall in the Yucatan, came back over the Gulf as a tropical storm and hardly intensified before coming ashore on the Gulf coast despite forecasts it would strengthen back to a hurricane. That was different again because I believe Isidore's inner core was destroyed from the land passage and it only started reforming hours before Gulf landfall, but in my mind it seems to be tropical cyclones frequently struggle to intensify much after a significant land crossing. Georges 2008 is another example of a landfall disrupted hurricane that struggled to reintensify much as it crossed the Gulf.

Excellent writeup! Yea I'm going for a landfall strength of 75 to 85 mph at landfall. While it's possible that it may not reach hurricane strength, I think it will just make it right before hitting land.

[Tailgater33]

Visible imagery showing an eddy near 24.5N 92W spinning cow around center I think. Not a sign of a well organized system imho.

[Tailgater33]

Visible imagery showing an eddy near 24.5N 92W spinning ccw
around center I think. Not a sign of a well organized system imho.