ATL: BERYL - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[tolakram]

I simply do not trust any intensity forecasts. If this was easy all of this hindsight would make forecasting these storms easier. As to what someone said above, science will explain everything, we just lack some of the knowledge, or most likely the data.

Hurricane model landfall intensities are on the increase again. The trend is back up, that's all I know, and I don't trust them. IF I lived near the coast I would have my preparations done in May and be ready to bug out if the trend continues.

[aspen]

I must admit I don't get the suggestions that Beryl could reach cat 3 before its final landfall.

The core got shredded by wind shear in the western Caribbean sea and passage over the Yucatan and it takes time for a storm to rebuild the core. It has about two days before landfall i.e. not a great deal. Atmospheric conditions are far from ideal with wind shear stifling re-intensification and dry air to the south. Harvey was a different beast, it didn't develop into a tropical storm until after it has crossed the Yucatan so there wasn't a shredded core to rebuild, and Harvey formed in peak hurricane season not early July. This is not a Gilbert either, that hit the Yucatan as a cat 5 and was still a cat 2 when it came back over water, Beryl was a cat 2 and weakened to a tropical storm. I'm thinking of something like Isidore in 2002 which made landfall in the Yucatan, came back over the Gulf as a tropical storm and hardly intensified before coming ashore on the Gulf coast despite forecasts it would strengthen back to a hurricane. That was different again because I believe Isidore's inner core was destroyed from the land passage and it only started reforming hours before Gulf landfall, but in my mind it seems to be tropical cyclones frequently struggle to intensify much after a significant land crossing. Georges 2008 is another example of a landfall disrupted hurricane that struggled to reintensify much as it crossed the Gulf.

Gustav's passage over Western Caribbean certainly caused more issues than most anticipated. For Beryl conditions aren't going to get any worse and should start improving steadily as time goes on. The NHC's forecast of 85 MPH at landfall sounds about right to me.

Yeah maybe something like Hanna ‘20 in terms of intensity. I recall that storms struggled a bit until its final <24 hrs before landfall, where it became a high-end Cat 1.

If Beryl has managed to restack and re-construct an inner core by tomorrow morning, a major landfall does become a possibility, but for now a Cat 1 is the safest bet.

[utweather]

I must admit I don't get the suggestions that Beryl could reach cat 3 before its final landfall.

The core got shredded by wind shear in the western Caribbean sea and passage over the Yucatan and it takes time for a storm to rebuild the core. It has about two days before landfall i.e. not a great deal. Atmospheric conditions are far from ideal with wind shear stifling re-intensification and dry air to the south. Harvey was a different beast, it didn't develop into a tropical storm until after it has crossed the Yucatan so there wasn't a shredded core to rebuild, and Harvey formed in peak hurricane season not early July. This is not a Gilbert either, that hit the Yucatan as a cat 5 and was still a cat 2 when it came back over water, Beryl was a cat 2 and weakened to a tropical storm. I'm thinking of something like Isidore in 2002 which made landfall in the Yucatan, came back over the Gulf as a tropical storm and hardly intensified before coming ashore on the Gulf coast despite forecasts it would strengthen back to a hurricane. That was different again because I believe Isidore's inner core was destroyed from the land passage and it only started reforming hours before Gulf landfall, but in my mind it seems to be tropical cyclones frequently struggle to intensify much after a significant land crossing. Georges 2008 is another example of a landfall disrupted hurricane that struggled to reintensify much as it crossed the Gulf.

Yeah the weather channel was gung ho on this being a cat 2 possibly cat 3 at landfall this morning. It was a crew I didnt recognize so maybe new. Anyway I went out and mowed the yard after that incase Austin gets some heavy rains like Alberto did. We shall see..

[Zonacane]

I must admit I don't get the suggestions that Beryl could reach cat 3 before its final landfall.

The core got shredded by wind shear in the western Caribbean sea and passage over the Yucatan and it takes time for a storm to rebuild the core. It has about two days before landfall i.e. not a great deal. Atmospheric conditions are far from ideal with wind shear stifling re-intensification and dry air to the south. Harvey was a different beast, it didn't develop into a tropical storm until after it has crossed the Yucatan so there wasn't a shredded core to rebuild, and Harvey formed in peak hurricane season not early July. This is not a Gilbert either, that hit the Yucatan as a cat 5 and was still a cat 2 when it came back over water, Beryl was a cat 2 and weakened to a tropical storm. I'm thinking of something like Isidore in 2002 which made landfall in the Yucatan, came back over the Gulf as a tropical storm and hardly intensified before coming ashore on the Gulf coast despite forecasts it would strengthen back to a hurricane. That was different again because I believe Isidore's inner core was destroyed from the land passage and it only started reforming hours before Gulf landfall, but in my mind it seems to be tropical cyclones frequently struggle to intensify much after a significant land crossing. Georges 2008 is another example of a landfall disrupted hurricane that struggled to reintensify much as it crossed the Gulf.

Did you see the latest recon VDM?

[Horn1991]

I must admit I don't get the suggestions that Beryl could reach cat 3 before its final landfall.

The core got shredded by wind shear in the western Caribbean sea and passage over the Yucatan and it takes time for a storm to rebuild the core. It has about two days before landfall i.e. not a great deal. Atmospheric conditions are far from ideal with wind shear stifling re-intensification and dry air to the south. Harvey was a different beast, it didn't develop into a tropical storm until after it has crossed the Yucatan so there wasn't a shredded core to rebuild, and Harvey formed in peak hurricane season not early July. This is not a Gilbert either, that hit the Yucatan as a cat 5 and was still a cat 2 when it came back over water, Beryl was a cat 2 and weakened to a tropical storm. I'm thinking of something like Isidore in 2002 which made landfall in the Yucatan, came back over the Gulf as a tropical storm and hardly intensified before coming ashore on the Gulf coast despite forecasts it would strengthen back to a hurricane. That was different again because I believe Isidore's inner core was destroyed from the land passage and it only started reforming hours before Gulf landfall, but in my mind it seems to be tropical cyclones frequently struggle to intensify much after a significant land crossing. Georges 2008 is another example of a landfall disrupted hurricane that struggled to reintensify much as it crossed the Gulf.

Did you see the latest recon VDM?

1001?

[Zonacane]

I must admit I don't get the suggestions that Beryl could reach cat 3 before its final landfall.

The core got shredded by wind shear in the western Caribbean sea and passage over the Yucatan and it takes time for a storm to rebuild the core. It has about two days before landfall i.e. not a great deal. Atmospheric conditions are far from ideal with wind shear stifling re-intensification and dry air to the south. Harvey was a different beast, it didn't develop into a tropical storm until after it has crossed the Yucatan so there wasn't a shredded core to rebuild, and Harvey formed in peak hurricane season not early July. This is not a Gilbert either, that hit the Yucatan as a cat 5 and was still a cat 2 when it came back over water, Beryl was a cat 2 and weakened to a tropical storm. I'm thinking of something like Isidore in 2002 which made landfall in the Yucatan, came back over the Gulf as a tropical storm and hardly intensified before coming ashore on the Gulf coast despite forecasts it would strengthen back to a hurricane. That was different again because I believe Isidore's inner core was destroyed from the land passage and it only started reforming hours before Gulf landfall, but in my mind it seems to be tropical cyclones frequently struggle to intensify much after a significant land crossing. Georges 2008 is another example of a landfall disrupted hurricane that struggled to reintensify much as it crossed the Gulf.

Did you see the latest recon VDM?

1001?

[Stratton23]

I think it will get up to a cat 2, beryl will mix out the dry air, think it will have a more well developed core by later this evening- overnight, Levi Cowan pretty much said expect a hurricane at landfall, and hes one of the best in the business

[capNstorms]

You can see that beryl is a better stacked system this afternoon, the outflow is really starting to ramp up. You can feel the winds being pulled toward the deepening system in the gulf. I am in Beaumont, Texas.
I have a really bad feeling for Galveston if this thing continues to deepen... There will be flooding along the coastal cities with the surge alone, the rainfall totals on the east side of this system will be concerning as well.

[cycloneye]

I recommend the members to read this post from Eric Webb about the Harvey comparisons that I agree it has to stop.

 https://x.com/webberweather/status/1809643994177237427



Whole post.

While I do agree that #Beryl may rapidly intensify into landfall in Texas later tomorrow, we need to pump the brakes on the “this could be Harvey all over again” paradigm.

There are some truly gigantic differences between this and Harvey, in that during Harvey you started from basically nothing, whereas here w/ #Beryl you have a broad center and wind maxima that needs time to consolidate before really getting going again.

Also, not to mention #Beryl’s environment isn’t exactly pristine, with a lot of mid-level dry air lurking to the south and moderate-strong southerly wind shear helping to force this dry air into the core.

While there are a few exceptions, it’s **much, much** easier for a TC to intensify more quickly when you start with next to nothing like Harvey and just wrap up a tight initial inner core. Contrast that with #Beryl where you’re try to tighten up something that’s initially broad, with a lot more inertial stability to overcome.

Historically speaking, most tightly wound cat 4-5s in the Atlantic that unwind then try to reintensify later on usually do so at a much slower pace, even in a great environments. This is likely because the broad pressure field left by the older, relic inner core pumps the breaks truly rapid intensification when it comes to surface winds. In these kinds of storms, you tend to get a lot more deepening, pressure falls, & a larger wind field at the expense of the peak winds having a harder time keeping up. I wouldn’t be surprised if that happens here w/ #Beryl

[Michele B]

I'm still expecting that cone to move further East and the intensity to go up to at least 3.

I’m curious if you have any scientific reasoning for your statements? Sounds like a lot of -removed- going on here from several users?

Sure people get excited for storms, I will admit I'm also a little excited for it, that's just human nature. But to the other point you mentioned "scientific reasoning" is there really any scientific reasoning to explain the things that this storm has done so far. The reason I say that is because from all of the news I have been watching and the various forms I have been on including Storm2k and the mets on tv, they all have a common theme, this storm has done the unexpected, so from a scientific standpoint, there are no plausible explanations for some of the storms actions, sure case studies will be done after the fact and new data and algorithms will be fed into the models, but it's still a "guessing game" science is a tool, it is helpful, but is not 100% accurate, sometimes, you just go with your "gut" and at times your gut is more scientific and correct than any "model"...just my opinion

Storms don’t and can’t operate outside of science and its “laws of nature.”

We just may not be able to quantify what those unseen “laws” are as of yet.

[LarryWx]

I must admit I don't get the suggestions that Beryl could reach cat 3 before its final landfall.

The core got shredded by wind shear in the western Caribbean sea and passage over the Yucatan and it takes time for a storm to rebuild the core. It has about two days before landfall i.e. not a great deal. Atmospheric conditions are far from ideal with wind shear stifling re-intensification and dry air to the south. Harvey was a different beast, it didn't develop into a tropical storm until after it has crossed the Yucatan so there wasn't a shredded core to rebuild, and Harvey formed in peak hurricane season not early July. This is not a Gilbert either, that hit the Yucatan as a cat 5 and was still a cat 2 when it came back over water, Beryl was a cat 2 and weakened to a tropical storm. I'm thinking of something like Isidore in 2002 which made landfall in the Yucatan, came back over the Gulf as a tropical storm and hardly intensified before coming ashore on the Gulf coast despite forecasts it would strengthen back to a hurricane. That was different again because I believe Isidore's inner core was destroyed from the land passage and it only started reforming hours before Gulf landfall, but in my mind it seems to be tropical cyclones frequently struggle to intensify much after a significant land crossing. Georges 2008 is another example of a landfall disrupted hurricane that struggled to reintensify much as it crossed the Gulf.

Somewhat related to your post from Eric Webb at 1:42 PM EDT in response to Ryan Maue showing a sat. image of Harvey 48 hours prior to landfall:

While I do agree that #Beryl may rapidly intensify into landfall in Texas later tomorrow, we need to pump the brakes on the “this could be Harvey all over again” paradigm. There are some truly gigantic differences between this and Harvey, in that during Harvey you started from basically nothing, whereas here w/ #Beryl you have a broad center and wind maxima that needs time to consolidate before really getting going again. Also, not to mention #Beryl’s environment isn’t exactly pristine, with a lot of mid-level dry air lurking to the south and moderate-strong southerly wind shear helping to force this dry air into the core. While there are a few exceptions, it’s **much, much** easier for a TC to intensify more quickly when you start with next to nothing like Harvey and just wrap up a tight initial inner core. Contrast that with #Beryl where you’re try to tighten up something that’s initially broad, with a lot more inertial stability to overcome. Historically speaking, most tightly wound cat 4-5s in the Atlantic that unwind then try to reintensify later on usually do so at a much slower pace, even in a great environments. This is likely because the broad pressure field left by the older, relic inner core pumps the breaks truly rapid intensification when it comes to surface winds. In these kinds of storms, you tend to get a lot more deepening, pressure falls, & a larger wind field at the expense of the peak winds having a harder time keeping up. I wouldn’t be surprised if that happens here w/ #Beryl

https://x.com/webberweather/status/1809 ... _&ref_url=

[capNstorms]

hurricanes like to move toward hot water. . .

[Steve]

I simply do not trust any intensity forecasts. If this was easy all of this hindsight would make forecasting these storms easier. As to what someone said above, science will explain everything, we just lack some of the knowledge, or most likely the data.

Hurricane model landfall intensities are on the increase again. The trend is back up, that's all I know, and I don't trust them. IF I lived near the coast I would have my preparations done in May and be ready to bug out if the trend continues.

Intensity forecasts are tough. In the future more 3D sampling (satellites or drones) will allow us to get it better. But here’s an experiment from less than 2 days out. No model, regardless of where they hit in Texas, doesn’t show best organization right at landfall. We have a few more model cycles that could change but be ready to anyone on the immediate coast. Literally every model is strongest as it hits. Maybe they got that part of intensity correct but everyone knows about Texas landfalling storms.

[Steve]

I must admit I don't get the suggestions that Beryl could reach cat 3 before its final landfall.

The core got shredded by wind shear in the western Caribbean sea and passage over the Yucatan and it takes time for a storm to rebuild the core. It has about two days before landfall i.e. not a great deal. Atmospheric conditions are far from ideal with wind shear stifling re-intensification and dry air to the south. Harvey was a different beast, it didn't develop into a tropical storm until after it has crossed the Yucatan so there wasn't a shredded core to rebuild, and Harvey formed in peak hurricane season not early July. This is not a Gilbert either, that hit the Yucatan as a cat 5 and was still a cat 2 when it came back over water, Beryl was a cat 2 and weakened to a tropical storm. I'm thinking of something like Isidore in 2002 which made landfall in the Yucatan, came back over the Gulf as a tropical storm and hardly intensified before coming ashore on the Gulf coast despite forecasts it would strengthen back to a hurricane. That was different again because I believe Isidore's inner core was destroyed from the land passage and it only started reforming hours before Gulf landfall, but in my mind it seems to be tropical cyclones frequently struggle to intensify much after a significant land crossing. Georges 2008 is another example of a landfall disrupted hurricane that struggled to reintensify much as it crossed the Gulf.

Somewhat related to your post from Eric Webb at 1:42 PM EDT in response to Ryan Maue showing a sat. image of Harvey 48 hours prior to landfall:

While I do agree that #Beryl may rapidly intensify into landfall in Texas later tomorrow, we need to pump the brakes on the “this could be Harvey all over again” paradigm. There are some truly gigantic differences between this and Harvey, in that during Harvey you started from basically nothing, whereas here w/ #Beryl you have a broad center and wind maxima that needs time to consolidate before really getting going again. Also, not to mention #Beryl’s environment isn’t exactly pristine, with a lot of mid-level dry air lurking to the south and moderate-strong southerly wind shear helping to force this dry air into the core. While there are a few exceptions, it’s **much, much** easier for a TC to intensify more quickly when you start with next to nothing like Harvey and just wrap up a tight initial inner core. Contrast that with #Beryl where you’re try to tighten up something that’s initially broad, with a lot more inertial stability to overcome. Historically speaking, most tightly wound cat 4-5s in the Atlantic that unwind then try to reintensify later on usually do so at a much slower pace, even in a great environments. This is likely because the broad pressure field left by the older, relic inner core pumps the breaks truly rapid intensification when it comes to surface winds. In these kinds of storms, you tend to get a lot more deepening, pressure falls, & a larger wind field at the expense of the peak winds having a harder time keeping up. I wouldn’t be surprised if that happens here w/ #Beryl

https://x.com/webberweather/status/1809 ... _&ref_url=

Damn. Mic drop on Weatherbell’s sensanationalism.

[capNstorms]

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Eric Webb said it best.

I did think that Beryl had a solid chance of being a major in the gulf... if it had never left hurricane strength. We also were used to Beryl just defying all the odds --- dry air, wind shear, land interaction --- as it blew up to a category 5 and stayed a major for over four days.

However, with the state Beryl is, it's just difficult to see it come close to where it was. Not impossible, but not worth sensationalizing yet. The OHC, temps, and moisture are still not conducive to *extreme* rapid intensification ala Harvey or East Caribbean Beryl. A lower-end hurricane is nevertheless plausible. I can't give a ceiling yet though

[LarryWx]

I must admit I don't get the suggestions that Beryl could reach cat 3 before its final landfall.

The core got shredded by wind shear in the western Caribbean sea and passage over the Yucatan and it takes time for a storm to rebuild the core. It has about two days before landfall i.e. not a great deal. Atmospheric conditions are far from ideal with wind shear stifling re-intensification and dry air to the south. Harvey was a different beast, it didn't develop into a tropical storm until after it has crossed the Yucatan so there wasn't a shredded core to rebuild, and Harvey formed in peak hurricane season not early July. This is not a Gilbert either, that hit the Yucatan as a cat 5 and was still a cat 2 when it came back over water, Beryl was a cat 2 and weakened to a tropical storm. I'm thinking of something like Isidore in 2002 which made landfall in the Yucatan, came back over the Gulf as a tropical storm and hardly intensified before coming ashore on the Gulf coast despite forecasts it would strengthen back to a hurricane. That was different again because I believe Isidore's inner core was destroyed from the land passage and it only started reforming hours before Gulf landfall, but in my mind it seems to be tropical cyclones frequently struggle to intensify much after a significant land crossing. Georges 2008 is another example of a landfall disrupted hurricane that struggled to reintensify much as it crossed the Gulf.

Somewhat related to your post from Eric Webb at 1:42 PM EDT in response to Ryan Maue showing a sat. image of Harvey 48 hours prior to landfall:

While I do agree that #Beryl may rapidly intensify into landfall in Texas later tomorrow, we need to pump the brakes on the “this could be Harvey all over again” paradigm. There are some truly gigantic differences between this and Harvey, in that during Harvey you started from basically nothing, whereas here w/ #Beryl you have a broad center and wind maxima that needs time to consolidate before really getting going again. Also, not to mention #Beryl’s environment isn’t exactly pristine, with a lot of mid-level dry air lurking to the south and moderate-strong southerly wind shear helping to force this dry air into the core. While there are a few exceptions, it’s **much, much** easier for a TC to intensify more quickly when you start with next to nothing like Harvey and just wrap up a tight initial inner core. Contrast that with #Beryl where you’re try to tighten up something that’s initially broad, with a lot more inertial stability to overcome. Historically speaking, most tightly wound cat 4-5s in the Atlantic that unwind then try to reintensify later on usually do so at a much slower pace, even in a great environments. This is likely because the broad pressure field left by the older, relic inner core pumps the breaks truly rapid intensification when it comes to surface winds. In these kinds of storms, you tend to get a lot more deepening, pressure falls, & a larger wind field at the expense of the peak winds having a harder time keeping up. I wouldn’t be surprised if that happens here w/ #Beryl

https://x.com/webberweather/status/1809 ... _&ref_url=

Damn. Mic drop on Weatherbell’s sensanationalism.

To be fair, Ryan hasn't been with WxBell in years. Not that they don't sensationalize though.

[capNstorms]

beryl is about to go over some 93 octane water, i see some RI in the future

[Steve]

My bad. I don’t follow him except when he gets posted here. But it definitely looks to be strongest coming in. Definitely not Harvey but it could be strong.

[ConvergenceZone]

beryl is about to go over some 93 octane water, i see some RI in the future

perhaps later tomorrow or tomorrow night once shear and dry air is relaxed.