ATL: BERYL - Models

[Steve]

Prognosticated rainfall rates through 72 hours

ICON
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0612&fh=72

GFS
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0612&fh=72

FV-3 Hi-res (only out to 60 hours)
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0612&fh=60

NAM 12km
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0612&fh=72

Looks like a general 4-6" for Houston per these models. It does flood there, but this doesn't look too extreme. NAM has more rain but it's a bit farther west

[Steve]

I don’t know what to think about the HWRF. It also shows a big pulse at landfall. But it goes in south and comes up west of everything else I looked at so far. Closest to NAM but instead of going north it continues NW toward San Antonio and New Braunfels. So it’s feeling the ridge to be a little farther west I suppose.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 70612&fh=6

[Steve]

HMON also shows best organization right at landfall but less than HWRF. It comes up a little east of HWRF and a little west of most of the earlier models.

[aspen]

HWRF is showing a closed moisture pocket forming between 03-09z Sunday. If is verifies, that’s when we should start seeing some more pronounced recovery.

[Craters]

HWRF is showing a closed moisture pocket forming between 03-09z Sunday. If is verifies, that’s when we should start seeing some more pronounced recovery.

That's when the European drops 8 mb in one frame, too...

[tolakram]

979MB on a global which has a habit of underestimating strength. This is why I'm harping on the messaging. I don't know if it will be a cat 4 or cat 1, and I don't think the pro's do either.

[IcyTundra]

12Z Euro landfall is just east of Matagorda Bay. Landfall is close to where Nicholas made landfall in 2021.

[IcyTundra]

18Z ICON landfall near Freeport

[ROCK]

18Z ICON landfall near Freeport
https://i.ibb.co/7VZntzv/icon-mslp-pcpn-watl-fh3-45.gif

iCON still showing this track. I am beginning to wonder if it is just a scratch in the CD.. never seen a model so hell bent to one area run after run.

[jaguars_22]

Normally the icon caves… satellite is improving

[jaguars_22]

How good are the hurricane models that show Corpus Christi to rockport still?? Should we throw those out?

Hwrf hafs

[Steve]

Normally the icon caves… satellite is improving

When it’s an outlier sometimes as most of them do. But not always. Icon/EC is a decent alliance. It sees things ahead of other models sometimes. Genesis and position. Pretty much everything else was south of Texas then the border. Then south padre. Maybe they’ll be right. Icon didn’t waver for better or worse. We gonna see.

[IcyTundra]

Normally the icon caves… satellite is improving

When it’s an outlier sometimes as most of them do. But not always. Icon/EC is a decent alliance. It sees things ahead of other models sometimes. Genesis and position. Pretty much everything else was south of Texas then the border. Then south padre. Maybe they’ll be right. Icon didn’t waver for better or worse. We gonna see.

12Z Euro isn't that far off from the ICON. 12Z Euro Ensemble also has some members into Freeport so it is a possibilty still.

[ROCK]

18Z NAM up Matagorda and angles over to N Houston....depending on what happens in the next 24hrs it could still be fairly potent then...

[ROCK]

Normally the icon caves… satellite is improving

When it’s an outlier sometimes as most of them do. But not always. Icon/EC is a decent alliance. It sees things ahead of other models sometimes. Genesis and position. Pretty much everything else was south of Texas then the border. Then south padre. Maybe they’ll be right. Icon didn’t waver for better or worse. We gonna see.

12Z Euro isn't that far off from the ICON. 12Z Euro Ensemble also has some members into Freeport so it is a possibility still.

I havent seen the Euro ensembles today..can you post of point me in that direction. My prior link is toast.

[Steve]

GFS is running.

Here’s the early cycle 18z. Most mid coast

https://hurricanes.ral.ucar.edu/realtim ... _early.png

Early cycle intensity for 18z. Note all models peak at 36 hours/landfall +/- Might be slightly underdone as strengthening Cat 1 is my best guess.

https://hurricanes.ral.ucar.edu/realtim ... _early.png

[Steve]

When it’s an outlier sometimes as most of them do. But not always. Icon/EC is a decent alliance. It sees things ahead of other models sometimes. Genesis and position. Pretty much everything else was south of Texas then the border. Then south padre. Maybe they’ll be right. Icon didn’t waver for better or worse. We gonna see.

12Z Euro isn't that far off from the ICON. 12Z Euro Ensemble also has some members into Freeport so it is a possibility still.

I havent seen the Euro ensembles today..can you post of point me in that direction. My prior link is toast.

My bad those were 06.

[BobHarlem]

18z gfs

[LSU Saint]

18Z GFS has a Matagorda Bay impact.

[IcyTundra]

18Z GFS shifted a little further east now into the middle of Matagorda Bay. Beryl strengthens 9 MB in between hour 36 and hour 42 of the run. Could be more than that because it is showing 984 MB inland and probably weakened a little bit.