ATL: BERYL - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Stratton23]

Thinking this will come in a little more east than forecasted, still a little NE of the track

[vbhoutex]

Based on the last 2 advisories, 1 interim, both of you are correct.

[MGC]

Outflow looks to be improving so the shear might be relaxing.......however, all that dry air! Beryl looks to be embedded in dry air. Might be Beryl's Achilles' heel......MGC

[wx98]

New track update will have essentially an update of the previous advisories, only a few miles eastward. Track inland at Port O’Connor and Indianola. Landfall should be about 12z Monday morning as a Category 1.

[South Texas Storms]

Thinking landfall will occur near Matagorda Bay Monday morning with winds in the 80-100 mph range. Houston will be on the dirty side with tropical storm force winds (at least in gusts) and 4-8 inches of rain. Pretty impactful storm but hopefully not too much widespread damage.

Unfortunately the drought stricken area of the TX Hill Country will likely miss out again. Just a brutal stretch over there the past few years with missing these big rain events.

[Horn1991]

Thinking landfall will occur near Matagorda Bay Monday morning with winds in the 80-100 mph range. Houston will be on the dirty side with tropical storm force winds (at least in gusts) and 4-8 inches of rain. Pretty impactful storm but hopefully not too much widespread damage.

Unfortunately the drought stricken area of the TX Hill Country will likely miss out again. Just a brutal stretch over there the past few years with missing these big rain events.

Thinking the exact same.

[jaguars_22]

So Victoria will be on the west side then right? Shouldn’t be quite as bad as the east

[mpic]

Is the next recon tonight about 7?

[xironman]

Is the next recon tonight about 7?

I think that is when they are in storm. Kermit just took off.

[South Texas Storms]

So Victoria will be on the west side then right? Shouldn’t be quite as bad as the east

Going to be a very close call for Victoria. Could see hurricane or just tropical storm conditions depending on the exact track it takes.

[xironman]

Still open to the SE. The last gulp of dry air has been taken for now, convection over the Yucatan is moistening the atmosphere. Looks less tilted from the visible, have to see what recon finds.

[Tireman4]

Is the next recon tonight about 7?

I think they are in there now

[wx98]

I recommend the members to read this post from Eric Webb about the Harvey comparisons that I agree it has to stop.

 https://x.com/webberweather/status/1809643994177237427



Whole post.

While I do agree that #Beryl may rapidly intensify into landfall in Texas later tomorrow, we need to pump the brakes on the “this could be Harvey all over again” paradigm.

There are some truly gigantic differences between this and Harvey, in that during Harvey you started from basically nothing, whereas here w/ #Beryl you have a broad center and wind maxima that needs time to consolidate before really getting going again.

Also, not to mention #Beryl’s environment isn’t exactly pristine, with a lot of mid-level dry air lurking to the south and moderate-strong southerly wind shear helping to force this dry air into the core.

While there are a few exceptions, it’s **much, much** easier for a TC to intensify more quickly when you start with next to nothing like Harvey and just wrap up a tight initial inner core. Contrast that with #Beryl where you’re try to tighten up something that’s initially broad, with a lot more inertial stability to overcome.

Historically speaking, most tightly wound cat 4-5s in the Atlantic that unwind then try to reintensify later on usually do so at a much slower pace, even in a great environments. This is likely because the broad pressure field left by the older, relic inner core pumps the breaks truly rapid intensification when it comes to surface winds. In these kinds of storms, you tend to get a lot more deepening, pressure falls, & a larger wind field at the expense of the peak winds having a harder time keeping up. I wouldn’t be surprised if that happens here w/ #Beryl

I believe I mentioned something to this effect a day or two ago on this thread about the possibility or likelihood of the situation of a broadening pressure field where the pressure may fall but peak winds stay rather low (Cat 1-ish). Ike had this problem in 2008 after hitting Cuba and crossed the entire Gulf as a Cat 2 despite lower central pressure. This often heightens the surge risk and broad wind risk at the expense of a localized extreme wind threat.

[kassi]

Seems like she is starting the NW motion now.

NHC 4pm CDT update says NW (310°) at 13mph

[LSU Saint]

12Z Euro has the dirty side going right over Houston

[hurricane2025]

Icon Freeport

[Anti-freeze]

Unfortunately the drought stricken area of the TX Hill Country will likely miss out again. Just a brutal stretch over there the past few years with missing these big rain events.

They may not hit the jackpot, but there's currently several storms in that area.

[tolakram]

[Stratton23]

Starting to get more of a vigorous burst of convection over the center, I suspect beryl is beginning to cut off the dry air thats been intruding on it most of the day, i wouldnt be surprised if this recon flight finds it to be a little bit stronger

[galaxy401]

I still remember going to sleep with Harvey looking pathetic and waking up to a rapidly organizing storm. One of the biggest rapid organizations I recall seeing.

There are some parallels here for Beryl but it's still July and not August or September. Of course, climatology is already thrown out the window but we'll see what happens.