ATL: BERYL - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[sphelps8681]

https://i.imgur.com/NBhSUIp.gif

I am just a novice for a long time. And was wonder is it closing the se side from the dry air? Sorry this maybe a stupid question. Just looks more closed. TIA

[sponger]

I disagree that broader storms take more to consolidate than one coming from nothing. Charlie was a prime example of what a strong organized hurricane will do after its decimated over land. Organization is organization and it is far easier to ramp up an existing structure that is weakened by land interaction. Dry air is the only inhibiting factor and this storm has has fought off everything thrown at it. If I am in central Texas, I would be preparing for upper 2 low end 3 conditions. Intensity forecasts are decades behind forecast track improvements, which have been considerable.

[Sciencerocks]

[Hurrilurker]

A lot of lightning clustered around the core in the image @Sciencerocks posted. Seems likely to run out of water before it gets a chance at RI but who knows.

[xironman]

https://i.imgur.com/60eflkQ.gif

You can see the LLC being wrapped around the MLC. Eventually it will stack.

[TomballEd]

Is the next recon tonight about 7?

7 pm is the requested first center fix, but as noted, the planes are in the air, the NOAA plane is reaching the storm, the first pass into the center probably happens an hour before the 7 pm requested center fix, so we're an hour to having a rough idea of the pressure and top winds.

[Steve]

A lot of lightning clustered around the core in the image @Sciencerocks posted. Seems likely to run out of water before it gets a chance at RI but who knows.

Gonna run out of ocean but as discussed earlier, every 12z model has it strengthening all the way in. So it’s probably going to look really good overnight tomorrow and Monday am. If it cranks early and sustains, there’s still a day and a half.

[UTSARoadrunner4]

Refugio County has issued a MANDATORY evacuation order.
https://news4sanantonio.com/amp/news/local/refugio-county-orders-mandatory-evacuation-as-hurricane-beryl-approaches-woodsboro-gas-roads-storm-tracker

Port Aransas has issued a MANDATORY VISITOR evacuation order.
https://www.lmtonline.com/news/weather/article/mandatory-evacuations-texas-19558298.php

Lieutenant/Acting Governor Dan Patrick adds 81 East Texas counties to the disaster declaration ahead of Beryl.
https://www.ltgov.texas.gov/2024/07/06/acting-governor-dan-patrick-adds-81-texas-counties-to-hurricane-beryl-disaster-declaration/

[ronjon]

Looks like the LLC and mid-level center are not aligned so probably not much strengthening tonight. Probably need a huge burst of convection overnight to get them stacked.

[hipshot]

A lot of lightning clustered around the core in the image @Sciencerocks posted. Seems likely to run out of water before it gets a chance at RI but who knows.

Gonna run out of ocean but as discussed earlier, every 12z model has it strengthening all the way in. So it’s probably going to look really good overnight tomorrow and Monday am. If it cranks early and sustains, there’s still a day and a half.

Was just watching the CBS evening news here in Dallas and some of the folks in Galveston are boarding up, but the tourists on the beach...not so much. I hope they don't get stuck there but we should know more by in the mornign.

[Nimbus]

Is the next recon tonight about 7?

7 pm is the requested first center fix, but as noted, the planes are in the air, the NOAA plane is reaching the storm, the first pass into the center probably happens an hour before the 7 pm requested center fix, so we're an hour to having a rough idea of the pressure and top winds.

The NOAA flight didn't record the surface pressure all the way in but its broad and the gradient is shallow so far.

[HurricaneBelle]

I disagree that broader storms take more to consolidate than one coming from nothing. Charlie was a prime example of what a strong organized hurricane will do after its decimated over land. Organization is organization and it is far easier to ramp up an existing structure that is weakened by land interaction. Dry air is the only inhibiting factor and this storm has has fought off everything thrown at it. If I am in central Texas, I would be preparing for upper 2 low end 3 conditions. Intensity forecasts are decades behind forecast track improvements, which have been considerable.

Not sure what you're talking about with respect to Charley 2004.

1) Charley was a compact storm, not broad at all
2) Charley's land interaction was a brief trip over the thin western end of Cuba, which didn't weaken it at all (stayed at 105, and the pressure dropped from 975 to 970 in the crossing), let alone "decimate" it

[TheDreamTraveler]

If this were late August/September things would probably be looking a bit different right now. It's easy to forget with how much of a over performer Beryl was that it's still only July 6th.

[ROCK]

Recon is in the storm with another plane in route. Curious to see what pressure it is at now. I think we are seeing with every blowup the LLC being relocated under it. Want to know what heading its on...

994MB

that pressure was displaced from the recent colder tops by a good amount. ie not aligned yet

[galvestontx]

we're ready. not looking forward to the power outages with feel like temps in the 120's.

[mpic]

I am desperately -removed- for a moderate TS, but will also be slightly disappointed if Beryl outperforms itself once again. Talk about adrenaline!

[mpic]

we're ready. not looking forward to the power outages with feel like temps in the 120's.

Power outage would definitely brutal in this heat. For nighttime, I'm ready with a "summer" pup tent, rechargeable fans and a tank of gas in the car to recharge them lol.

[MEANINGLESS_NUMBERS]

we're ready. not looking forward to the power outages with feel like temps in the 120's.

Would you really lose power in a tropical storm or a category 1 hurricane?

[Nimbus]

The NOAA flight might have missed the eye, but moisture levels were high and its still on the northwest track from this morning. There are 50 knot winds quite far from the center with this storm so the power outages are likely to be a problem.

[mpic]

we're ready. not looking forward to the power outages with feel like temps in the 120's.

Would you really lose power in a tropical storm or a category 1 hurricane?

Not directed at me, but yes. Think trees.