ATL: BERYL - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[IcyTundra]

we're ready. not looking forward to the power outages with feel like temps in the 120's.

Would you really lose power in a tropical storm or a category 1 hurricane?

Depends I briefly lost power for an hour or two today after a normal thunderstorm. Cat 2 at landfall isn't completely off the table yet either.

[GCANE]

The PVS signature of the ULL has significantly deteriorated today.
Looks like Beryl's chances to develop on its way to the TX coast have increased.

https://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/ ... oom=&time=

[Bimms]

I'm thinking it will get it's act together tonight. Thinking landfall just a little west of Galveston. Will probably come in as a high end Cat 1 to low end Cat 2.

[Steve]

I'm thinking it will get it's act together tonight. Thinking landfall just a little west of Galveston. Will probably come in as a high end Cat 1 to low end Cat 2.

Decent call. I’m pretty close but a 1+ and a county or so farther down the coast (Brazoria/Matagorda). But like rock said we gotta catch the movement in recon and see if the llc is being tugged NW or even N. N pull before the coast brings it farther up the coast.

[ROCK]

they are coming around for another pass for a fix....The second plane will be in soon also....

[ATXAG95]

Well I’m in Bryan and I’m honestly looking forward to cooler temps. Here’s hoping that I don’t loose power. I’m hoping for some decent rain!

[GalvestonDuck]

we're ready. not looking forward to the power outages with feel like temps in the 120's.

Would you really lose power in a tropical storm or a category 1 hurricane?

Lost power twice during Allison’s development.

[Hammy]

we're ready. not looking forward to the power outages with feel like temps in the 120's.

Would you really lose power in a tropical storm or a category 1 hurricane?

35-40 mph gusts is enough to cause power outages

[cycloneye]

Breaking news= ASCAT shows a closed low.

[Smurfwicked]

Watching the burst of convection sure looks it's got much more of a NNW component to it to me. Years of being a member here have taught me that these tropical systems tend to follow the convection and get pulled towards it. This indicates to me it currently is tracking east of forecast points.

Also not expecting this to bomb out with current conditions and being so early in season but to be a strengthening hurricane at landfall. Strengthening systems could easily have brutal gust a category above.

Looks like landfall will be mid day Monday and if I am reading the tide chart correctly it appears high tide for Galveston is around 3pm which would amplify surge effects along southeast Texas coast.

I'm out of state working currently but home is Galveston County and I don't know how saturated the ground is but it seems everytime I check the weather it's raining. A co worker from Dayton said the Trinity river has been way up for awhile now.

Have friends that live there for a few years that never really experienced real hurricane as they've only been here for a few years. I always worry about such people that follow the guidance of the downplaying locals.

[Bimms]

we're ready. not looking forward to the power outages with feel like temps in the 120's.

Would you really lose power in a tropical storm or a category 1 hurricane?

We lose power during normal summer storms so yea, you can lose power.

[ConvergenceZone]

we're ready. not looking forward to the power outages with feel like temps in the 120's.

Would you really lose power in a tropical storm or a category 1 hurricane?

35-40 mph gusts is enough to cause power outages

Man, the power line system must be bad there. We get 35 to 40 mph gusts here all the time in Sacramento and never lose power. Usually when gusts hit around 55+ is when our power outages start.

[Blinhart]

Would you really lose power in a tropical storm or a category 1 hurricane?

35-40 mph gusts is enough to cause power outages

Man, the power line system must be bad there. We get 35 to 40 mph gusts here all the time in Sacramento and never lose power. Usually when gusts hit around 55+ is when our power outages start.

The power lines are above ground here in the South, they aren't buried.

[SecondBreakfast]

we're ready. not looking forward to the power outages with feel like temps in the 120's.

Would you really lose power in a tropical storm or a category 1 hurricane?

Tropical Storm Isaias caused half a million outages in NY alone in 2020.

[Frank P]

Watching the vis sat loops, the highest convention area I assume is near the center, and to me the center of the system seems to heading in more of a WNW motion, hopefully recon will give us some info on motion

[Nimbus]

Watching the burst of convection sure looks it's got much more of a NNW component to it to me. Years of being a member here have taught me that these tropical systems tend to follow the convection and get pulled towards it. This indicates to me it currently is tracking east of forecast points.

Also not expecting this to bomb out with current conditions and being so early in season but to be a strengthening hurricane at landfall. Strengthening systems could easily have brutal gust a category above.

Looks like landfall will be mid day Monday and if I am reading the tide chart correctly it appears high tide for Galveston is around 3pm which would amplify surge effects along southeast Texas coast.

I'm out of state working currently but home is Galveston County and I don't know how saturated the ground is but it seems everytime I check the weather it's raining. A co worker from Dayton said the Trinity river has been way up for awhile now.

Have friends that live there for a few years that never really experienced real hurricane as they've only been here for a few years. I always worry about such people that follow the guidance of the downplaying locals.

Last recon pass was close to a center near 24.1 N -93.3 W which is NW from the earlier 1001 MB fix this morning but next pass will be a better fix. The models arent forecasting 990 mb surface pressures till tomorrow so its an important mission..

[sponger]

[quote="cycloneye"]Breaking news= ASCAT shows a closed low.

So much for the extended time to consolidate. Those hot towers and lighting at center indicated as much hours ago!

[Horn1991]

Watching the vis sat loops, the highest convention area I assume is near the center, and to me the center of the system seems to heading in more of a WNW motion, hopefully recon will give us some info on motion

That's what it looks like to me.

[Jr0d]

Watching the burst of convection sure looks it's got much more of a NNW component to it to me. Years of being a member here have taught me that these tropical systems tend to follow the convection and get pulled towards it. This indicates to me it currently is tracking east of forecast points.

John Hope on The Weather Channel is where I first heard this, unfortunately I can't find any of his old broadcasts where he mentions this.

[Texashawk]

Breaking news= ASCAT shows a closed low.

https://i.imgur.com/3Fnrd8L.jpeg

What’s the significance of that? I thought it already had a closed low?