BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Beryl Advisory Number 33
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022024
400 PM CDT Sat Jul 06 2024
...HURRICANE AND STORM SURGE WARNINGS ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE
COAST OF TEXAS...
...HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS, LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE, AND HEAVY
RAINS EXPECTED IN PORTIONS OF SOUTH TEXAS...
SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.9N 93.0W
ABOUT 385 MI...615 KM SE OF CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
A Hurricane Warning is now in effect for the Texas coast from
Baffin Bay northward to Sargent.
A Tropical Storm Warning is now in effect for the Texas coast
north of Sargent to High Island.
A Storm Surge Warning has been issued from North Entrance of
the Padre Island National Seashore northward to San Luis Pass,
including Corpus Christi Bay and Matagorda Bay.
A Storm Surge Watch has been issued along the Texas coast east of
High Island to Sabine Pass.
Tropical Storm Beryl Discussion Number 33
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022024
400 PM CDT Sat Jul 06 2024
Beryl's convective organization has increased since the last
advisory, with a ragged band forming in the western semicircle.
However, this band is best organized around what appears to be a
mid-level center to the north or northeast of the low-level center.
Earlier aircraft data indicated that the maximum winds were near 50
kt and the central pressure was in the 997-999 mb range, and since
that time various objective intensity estimates have shown little
change. Thus, the initial intensity remains 50 kt. The next
aircraft missions into the cyclone should arrive around 2300-0000Z.
Beryl is still being affected by shear and dry air entrainment,
which helped produce a large arc cloud that was visible for most of
the day to the south and southwest of the convection.
The initial motion is now 310/11 kt. Water vapor imagery
continues to show a developing mid-latitude trough over the central
United States that is opening a break in the subtropical ridge over
Texas. Beryl should move northwestward for the next 24 h or so,
then gradually turn north and move into the break. This motion
should lead to the cyclone making landfall on the Texas coast
between 36-48 h. Recurvature to the northeast is subsequently
expected after 60-72 h. There has been a little bit of a northward
shift in the guidance and track, due mainly to a more northward
initial position. While this has produced only a small change in
the forecast landfall location, the landfall time is now a few
hours earlier than in the previous advisory. It should be noted
that some erratic motion could occur tonight due to possible center
reformations.
While Beryl remains in an area of southerly vertical shear and mid-
to upper-level dry air, the convection has been persistent during
the past several hours. The shear is forecast to decrease by
Sunday morning, which should allow Beryl to re-intensity as
shown by all of the guidance. The intensity forecast calls for
Beryl to regain hurricane status Sunday or Sunday night, and to
reach an intensity of around 75-kt near the time of the Texas
landfall. This intensity is based on the regional hurricane models,
which have landfall intensities ranging from 65-85 kt. After
landfall, Beryl is expected to weaken, with the system forecast to
decay to a remnant low pressure area by 96 h.
It is important to note that the average NHC track error at 36
hours is about 50-60 miles and the average intensity error is close
to one category. Users are reminded to consider these uncertainties
when using the forecast information.
Key Messages:
1. There is a danger of life-threatening storm surge inundation
late Sunday night and Monday along the coast of Texas from the north
entrance to the Padre Island National Seashore to San Luis Pass.
Residents in that area should follow any advice given by local
officials and follow evacuation orders.
2. Beryl is forecast to bring damaging hurricane-force winds to
portions of the lower and middle Texas coast late Sunday night and
Monday. A Hurricane Warning is now in place from Baffin Bay to
Sargent. Preparations should be rushed to completion before tropical
storm conditions begin late Sunday.
3. Flash and urban flooding, some of which may be locally
considerable, is likely across portions of the Texas Gulf Coast and
eastern Texas beginning late Sunday through the middle of next week.
River flooding is also possible.
4. Rip currents will cause life-threatening beach conditions through
the weekend across much of the Gulf Coast. Beachgoers should heed
warning flags and the advice of lifeguards and local officials
before venturing into the water.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 06/2100Z 23.9N 93.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 07/0600Z 24.8N 94.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 07/1800Z 26.0N 95.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 08/0600Z 27.5N 96.3W 75 KT 85 MPH
48H 08/1800Z 29.1N 96.7W 60 KT 70 MPH...INLAND
60H 09/0600Z 30.8N 96.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
72H 09/1800Z 32.4N 95.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
96H 10/1800Z 35.0N 91.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
120H 11/1800Z 38.0N 88.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
$$
Forecaster Beven
Tropical Storm Beryl Advisory Number 33
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022024
400 PM CDT Sat Jul 06 2024
...HURRICANE AND STORM SURGE WARNINGS ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE
COAST OF TEXAS...
...HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS, LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE, AND HEAVY
RAINS EXPECTED IN PORTIONS OF SOUTH TEXAS...
SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.9N 93.0W
ABOUT 385 MI...615 KM SE OF CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
A Hurricane Warning is now in effect for the Texas coast from
Baffin Bay northward to Sargent.
A Tropical Storm Warning is now in effect for the Texas coast
north of Sargent to High Island.
A Storm Surge Warning has been issued from North Entrance of
the Padre Island National Seashore northward to San Luis Pass,
including Corpus Christi Bay and Matagorda Bay.
A Storm Surge Watch has been issued along the Texas coast east of
High Island to Sabine Pass.
Tropical Storm Beryl Discussion Number 33
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022024
400 PM CDT Sat Jul 06 2024
Beryl's convective organization has increased since the last
advisory, with a ragged band forming in the western semicircle.
However, this band is best organized around what appears to be a
mid-level center to the north or northeast of the low-level center.
Earlier aircraft data indicated that the maximum winds were near 50
kt and the central pressure was in the 997-999 mb range, and since
that time various objective intensity estimates have shown little
change. Thus, the initial intensity remains 50 kt. The next
aircraft missions into the cyclone should arrive around 2300-0000Z.
Beryl is still being affected by shear and dry air entrainment,
which helped produce a large arc cloud that was visible for most of
the day to the south and southwest of the convection.
The initial motion is now 310/11 kt. Water vapor imagery
continues to show a developing mid-latitude trough over the central
United States that is opening a break in the subtropical ridge over
Texas. Beryl should move northwestward for the next 24 h or so,
then gradually turn north and move into the break. This motion
should lead to the cyclone making landfall on the Texas coast
between 36-48 h. Recurvature to the northeast is subsequently
expected after 60-72 h. There has been a little bit of a northward
shift in the guidance and track, due mainly to a more northward
initial position. While this has produced only a small change in
the forecast landfall location, the landfall time is now a few
hours earlier than in the previous advisory. It should be noted
that some erratic motion could occur tonight due to possible center
reformations.
While Beryl remains in an area of southerly vertical shear and mid-
to upper-level dry air, the convection has been persistent during
the past several hours. The shear is forecast to decrease by
Sunday morning, which should allow Beryl to re-intensity as
shown by all of the guidance. The intensity forecast calls for
Beryl to regain hurricane status Sunday or Sunday night, and to
reach an intensity of around 75-kt near the time of the Texas
landfall. This intensity is based on the regional hurricane models,
which have landfall intensities ranging from 65-85 kt. After
landfall, Beryl is expected to weaken, with the system forecast to
decay to a remnant low pressure area by 96 h.
It is important to note that the average NHC track error at 36
hours is about 50-60 miles and the average intensity error is close
to one category. Users are reminded to consider these uncertainties
when using the forecast information.
Key Messages:
1. There is a danger of life-threatening storm surge inundation
late Sunday night and Monday along the coast of Texas from the north
entrance to the Padre Island National Seashore to San Luis Pass.
Residents in that area should follow any advice given by local
officials and follow evacuation orders.
2. Beryl is forecast to bring damaging hurricane-force winds to
portions of the lower and middle Texas coast late Sunday night and
Monday. A Hurricane Warning is now in place from Baffin Bay to
Sargent. Preparations should be rushed to completion before tropical
storm conditions begin late Sunday.
3. Flash and urban flooding, some of which may be locally
considerable, is likely across portions of the Texas Gulf Coast and
eastern Texas beginning late Sunday through the middle of next week.
River flooding is also possible.
4. Rip currents will cause life-threatening beach conditions through
the weekend across much of the Gulf Coast. Beachgoers should heed
warning flags and the advice of lifeguards and local officials
before venturing into the water.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 06/2100Z 23.9N 93.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 07/0600Z 24.8N 94.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 07/1800Z 26.0N 95.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 08/0600Z 27.5N 96.3W 75 KT 85 MPH
48H 08/1800Z 29.1N 96.7W 60 KT 70 MPH...INLAND
60H 09/0600Z 30.8N 96.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
72H 09/1800Z 32.4N 95.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
96H 10/1800Z 35.0N 91.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
120H 11/1800Z 38.0N 88.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
$$
Forecaster Beven