ATL: BERYL - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[wx98]

I'm thinking it will get it's act together tonight. Thinking landfall just a little west of Galveston. Will probably come in as a high end Cat 1 to low end Cat 2.

It would have to go nearly due north to get to near Galveston. The NHC track (or close to it) is the best bet.

[aspen]

We have two planes at two different heights in Beryl, and they look to be recording the circulation at around the same spot: 24.5N/93.6W. Seems to be stacked now, just has to mix out all the dry air.

[USTropics]

We have two planes at two different heights in Beryl, and they look to be recording the circulation at around the same spot: 24.5N/93.6W. Seems to be stacked now, just has to mix out all the dry air.

That's where I have the center at as well. Here is an overlay of both recon flights + mesoscale IR. The black line is the forecast track and the white circle is where recon is finding the center (just slightly east of forecast track):

[underthwx]

Long time lurker here, Is it possible beryl still moves east up the coast at landfall or is that pretty much a done deal with Matagorda area? Would/could strength play a factor still on a landfall point? Is the weakness in place and ready? Just curious. TIA

Freeport/Surfside Beach area is as far east as I can see landfall happening. Factors that might lead to changes in Beryl's track include possible center reformations and how much Beryl intensifies tomorrow as Beryl could wobble to the north if she strengthens quicker than expected. Not a done deal yet for the Matagorda Bay area but it is the most likely landfall area at this point.

I wondered the same thing to myself....given the track nudges over the past couple days...I have read that a stronger storm...might track more northward thru the weakness in the sub-tropical ridge?...maybe towards the northern gulf coast?...please correct me if I am mistaken...

[Steve]

Long time lurker here, Is it possible beryl still moves east up the coast at landfall or is that pretty much a done deal with Matagorda area? Would/could strength play a factor still on a landfall point? Is the weakness in place and ready? Just curious. TIA

Legit question. Personally think it’s the bay or north/east of there but we will see soon.

[jabman98]

we're ready. not looking forward to the power outages with feel like temps in the 120's.

Would you really lose power in a tropical storm or a category 1 hurricane?

Oh, yeah. Lost power today during relatively minor thunderstorms. Felt like a preview of Beryl. Ugh.

We still have huge piles of tree debris clogging up curbs and ditches from the mid-May derecho. Going to be a problem if we get flooding rain from Beryl. Everyone in my neighborhood is a bit on edge.

[Steve]

We have two planes at two different heights in Beryl, and they look to be recording the circulation at around the same spot: 24.5N/93.6W. Seems to be stacked now, just has to mix out all the dry air.

That's where I have the center at as well. Here is an overlay of both recon flights + mesoscale IR. The black line is the forecast track and the white circle is where recon is finding the center (just slightly east of forecast track):
https://i.imgur.com/yjGujEC.png

Then that is where we should expect the next round of storms firing off in a few hours.

[JKG43]

Did anybody else get the storm surge message on their phones just now or is it just headed straight for my backyard?

[txag2005]

we're ready. not looking forward to the power outages with feel like temps in the 120's.

Would you really lose power in a tropical storm or a category 1 hurricane?

Oh, yeah. Lost power today during relatively minor thunderstorms. Felt like a preview of Beryl. Ugh.

We still have huge piles of tree debris clogging up curbs and ditches from the mid-May derecho. Going to be a problem if we get flooding rain from Beryl. Everyone in my neighborhood is a bit on edge.

Stay safe out there. I've been dreading this storm more than normal given how many people are still dealing with the aftermath of the derecho.

[underthwx]

we're ready. not looking forward to the power outages with feel like temps in the 120's.

Would you really lose power in a tropical storm or a category 1 hurricane?

Oh, yeah. Lost power today during relatively minor thunderstorms. Felt like a preview of Beryl. Ugh.

We still have huge piles of tree debris clogging up curbs and ditches from the mid-May derecho. Going to be a problem if we get flooding rain from Beryl. Everyone in my neighborhood is a bit on edge.

Yeah...lost power for over a week or two with Nicholas...I upgraded my generator to deal with this better this time...should it come to pass...harvey was another story....I hope wherever Beryl goes...it passes quickly....

[869MB]

Did anybody else get the storm surge message on their phones just now or is it just headed straight for my backyard?

In your profile, add your location so that the forum will know exactly where ‘your backyard’ is located. I’ve noticed a lot of members reference their local weather and/or local weather history but they don’t have their respective location included within their profile in order for the forum to see.

[GalvestonDuck]

Did anybody else get the storm surge message on their phones just now or is it just headed straight for my backyard?

Yes, east end of Galveston here.

[USTropics]

Long time lurker here, Is it possible beryl still moves east up the coast at landfall or is that pretty much a done deal with Matagorda area? Would/could strength play a factor still on a landfall point? Is the weakness in place and ready? Just curious. TIA

Legit question. Personally think it’s the bay or north/east of there but we will see soon.

There still remains an unusual amount of spread in the ECMWF ensembles for this lead time (partly attributable to the orientation of the coast line):

[catskillfire51]

Did anybody else get the storm surge message on their phones just now or is it just headed straight for my backyard?

Yes, I am in Brazoria County. Currently in Freeport/Quintana.

[davidiowx]

It’s going to be interesting day tomorrow. Will she get her act together or is she grasping at air coming ashore. I’m ready for the worst but hoping for the best!

[underthwx]

Did anybody else get the storm surge message on their phones just now or is it just headed straight for my backyard?

In your profile, add your location so that the forum will know exactly where ‘your backyard’ is located. I’ve noticed a lot of members reference their local weather and/or local weather history but they don’t have their respective location included within their profile in order for the forum to see.

Im in Sweeny Texas...I haven't got any messages...I think we are under a TS Warning here?...but im not far from Matagorda...so I dunno if there's really a difference in conditions possible here...Nicholas landfalled at Sargent...it was thunder and blitzen here for sure...I have fam in Sargent...I think they have voluntary evacuations goin on there..I am guessing you are on the shore?...I do they broadcast surge warnings in inland towns and such?...I dunno...

[CypressMike]

What is the significance of the convection firing off to the NE of the Center?

[jabman98]

..I hope wherever Beryl goes...it passes quickly....

I really hope so too. I think that's the general forecast, right? That Beryl will move through relatively quickly.

[aspen]

996/27 from AF and 996/26 from NOAA, so probably 994mb.

[underthwx]

..I hope wherever Beryl goes...it passes quickly....

I really hope so too. I think that's the general forecast, right? That Beryl will move through relatively quickly.

that's my understanding too..