ATL: BERYL - Models

[IcyTundra]

12Z Euro isn't that far off from the ICON. 12Z Euro Ensemble also has some members into Freeport so it is a possibility still.

I havent seen the Euro ensembles today..can you post of point me in that direction. My prior link is toast.

My bad those were 06.

Steve the 12Z Euro ensemble is running late today just like the operational Euro did. I will post the 12Z Euro ensemble when I see it.

[Steve]

That’s also roughly eps mean for 12z. I think it’s going in somewhere close to there but possibly the northern side of the bay?

[Steve]

Thanks Icy. I ran the shaded one over at Tidbits and it was in line with the GFS. Icon still a bit up the coast but damn.

[BobHarlem]

Frame after landfall actually lower pressire. May indicate the thought of strengthening at landfall

[Steve]

https://i.imgur.com/d10emEK.png
Frame after landfall actually lower pressire. May indicate the thought of strengthening at landfall

Thanks Bob. They’re literally all doing it. Gonna be a bit of surprise for anyone near where the eye comes ashore.

[IcyTundra]

Thanks Icy. I ran the shaded one over at Tidbits and it was in line with the GFS. Icon still a bit up the coast but damn.

Found it on twitter from Ben Noll

[Steve]

I think that mean is close. Pretty late in the game but I think I’d call strengthening Cat 1 982ish Matagorda or Brazoria County (deference to the icon).

[ROCK]

I think that mean is close. Pretty late in the game but I think I’d call strengthening Cat 1 982ish Matagorda or Brazoria County (deference to the icon).

agree..I want to get a center fix in about 30min. I think the center is being sucked around after each blow up under the CDO. Curious to see what it does for overall track.

[IcyTundra]

18Z GEFS shifted north all members north of Corpus. Landfall will be somewhere between Port Aransas and Freeport with the most likely location somewhere along Matagorda Bay.

[jaguars_22]

So dumb!!! Hurricane models still show western movement in near term???? Are they that bad????

[Steve]

So dumb!!! Hurricane models still show western movement in near term???? Are they that bad????

Sometimes.

[AnnularCane]

Thanks Icy. I ran the shaded one over at Tidbits and it was in line with the GFS. Icon still a bit up the coast but damn.

Found it on twitter from Ben Noll
https://i.ibb.co/PCrNmNF/GR1-ZTIvb-MAA8-Hra.jpg

Any particular reason why the center line looks like that?

[Craters]

I havent seen the Euro ensembles today..can you post of point me in that direction. My prior link is toast.

ROCK — You can always go with Weathernerds: https://www.weathernerds.org/.

[tolakram]

HWRF,

another run showing stronger.

[tolakram]

HAFS A and B

[tolakram]

ICON, because I can.

[Steve]

Those sub-970’s scream close to Cat 2 if the Hurricane models are right.

[HurricaneBrain]

18Z Euro (not sure if it’s been posted yet) with Beryl moving north into a landfall between Matagorda and Galveston.

[jabman98]

ICON, because I can.

https://i.imgur.com/4v1H6YK.png

That ICON sure is determined to stay where it's been.

[jaguars_22]

So port Aransas is out of danger now correct?? Its more San Antonio bay and Matagorda?