ATL: BERYL - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[USTropics]

It's not exactly the quadrant I would expect to be open. Or from looking at the satellite to be quite that organized yet.

It's still not quite there on radar to see it:
https://mrms.nssl.noaa.gov/qvs/product_ ... _active=on

Then again, the last vortex message from the Air Force for the previous mission said:

40 PERCENT EYEWALL WITH SVR TURB WEST
WINDS CONSIDERABLY MORE ORGANIZED

I would have though winds would have come up a bit by now if it were as organized as recon says. But pressure is dropping some.

If there is an eyewall, it's extremely shallow and not seeing any signs of it on IR. We're currently getting a pulse down + DMIN, which is capping the convective cloud top temps. Dropsondes are showing shear starting to abate though, I would expect a ramp up in the next few hours again.

[ScottNAtlanta]

Looking at the latest AF Vortex Msg...it doesn't look like it has moved very much. I think it is still trying to stack itself.

[Chris_in_Tampa]

Sonde is getting 32 knots of surface wind for example on last pass. 996mb with 32 knots of surface wind, so maybe a pressure around 993mb.

Before that 996mb with 27 knots. I assume it is tilted some still. I don't know a lot about that kind of thing, I just write some software to interpret the stuff, but it would seem to me it's tilted some based on that.

On the last pass they released it around when the wind was noted as suspect at flight level, which a lot are this mission, but it was 4 knots. First wind reported in sonde text released was at 708mb level and it was 10 knots. At surface it was 32 knots. Dropped around 24.57N 93.74W and landed at 24.57N 93.76W. So I would say it's tilted based on that.

[LSU Saint]

This thing looks awful right now

[ScottNAtlanta]

Sonde is getting 32 knots of surface wind for example on last pass. 996mb with 32 knots of surface wind, so maybe a pressure around 993mb.

Before that 996mb with 27 knots. I assume it is tilted some still. I don't know a lot about that kind of thing, I just write some software to interpret the stuff, but it would seem to me it's tilted some based on that.

On the last pass they released it around when the wind was noted as suspect at flight level, which a lot are this mission, but it was 4 knots. First wind reported in sonde text released was at 708mb level and it was 10 knots. At surface it was 32 knots. Dropped around 24.57N 93.74W and landed at 24.57N 93.76W. So I would say it's tilted based on that.

Yeah, the pattern they are flying would make me think they are trying to sort that out because the pressure readings make me think it isn't stacked

[cycloneye]

 https://x.com/RaleighWx/status/1809760186900386260

[IcyTundra]

Looks terrible this evening. It's been hours since any new convection.

DMIN. Should look better in the morning

[Nimbus]

Sonde is getting 32 knots of surface wind for example on last pass. 996mb with 32 knots of surface wind, so maybe a pressure around 993mb.

Before that 996mb with 27 knots. I assume it is tilted some still. I don't know a lot about that kind of thing, I just write some software to interpret the stuff, but it would seem to me it's tilted some based on that.

On the last pass they released it around when the wind was noted as suspect at flight level, which a lot are this mission, but it was 4 knots. First wind reported in sonde text released was at 708mb level and it was 10 knots. At surface it was 32 knots. Dropped around 24.57N 93.74W and landed at 24.57N 93.76W. So I would say it's tilted based on that.

That is .47 N for .46 W from where I had it a couple hours ago.
Pressures were 991 or 992 on a couple passes I saw but they could have flagged the drops?
Its following the NHC forecast pretty much.

[Shoshana]

I didn’t see a reply so here’s my 2 cents, if it were my family I would tell them not to go to Conroe. Go west. Even if they just go to San Antonio, they can always come to y’all in Conroe after.

Relatives who live in an RV at Port Aransas have until 3pm tomorrow to pull out. They are ready to that. The problem is, do they come here to Conroe or should they go someplace west? Don't want them to wait too long so they end up driving in winds, but don't want them to drive exactly where the storm might come. Forecasts among mets here seem to be all over the place right now. How long do you think it will be before a Houston landfall or a more eastern track can be ruled out?

[cheezyWXguy]

Haha, for some of y’all it seems like your first rodeo. If so, welcome! If this is not, you should know by now how quickly things can change. A good connective burst could get people posting about cat4 potential. Pressures have dropped since the previous flight and the core is a little better organized. Let’s wait and see what happens during dmax tonight.

[Chris_in_Tampa]

I wish the NRL site had pages that lasted so they could be linked to.

The image from NRL in that tweet is here:
https://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tcdat/tc24/ ... p0.1p0.jpg

To get that, you go to NRL:
https://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/TC.html

Then click storm name if it isn't already on front page.

Then click on square that corresponds to SSMIS and 85GHz H.

Then click "Previous" if needed to go to a pass that was acceptable.

[Steve]

Haha, for some of y’all it seems like your first rodeo. If so, welcome! If this is not, you should know by now how quickly things can change. A good connective burst could get people posting about cat4 potential. Pressures have dropped since the previous flight and the core is a little better organized. Let’s wait and see what happens during dmax tonight.

No doubt. And let’s see if the models back off on intensification to and maybe a hair after landfall. I don’t think so. Should burst tonight and then again tomorrow and then tomorrow night for good. Shout out to Hankfrank from the good old days. I gotta go check mesos so see y’all in the model thread.

[ConvergenceZone]

Another nice thing about Beryl being so weak is that due to the slow traffic on this board, it makes the job of the Mods easier....I think late August and September will be nuts, when the tropics really get going.

[ConvergenceZone]

Haha, for some of y’all it seems like your first rodeo. If so, welcome! If this is not, you should know by now how quickly things can change. A good connective burst could get people posting about cat4 potential. Pressures have dropped since the previous flight and the core is a little better organized. Let’s wait and see what happens during dmax tonight.

No doubt. And let’s see if the models back off on intensification to and maybe a hair after landfall. I don’t think so. Should burst tonight and then again tomorrow and then tomorrow night for good. Shout out to Hankfrank from the good old days. I gotta go check mesos so see y’all in the model thread.

I expect them to back off on intensification if Beryl doesn't improve by morning, probably would expect a max 75mph at landfall if that happens. At this point I think 85 MPH is still a possibility, but things are going to have to change quickly for that to happen.

[IcyTundra]

Another nice thing about Beryl being so weak is that due to the slow traffic on this board, it makes the job of the Mods easier....I think late August and September will be nuts, when the tropics really get going.

This thread has been pretty active most pages for a storm since Ian in 2022.

[Steve]

Haha, for some of y’all it seems like your first rodeo. If so, welcome! If this is not, you should know by now how quickly things can change. A good connective burst could get people posting about cat4 potential. Pressures have dropped since the previous flight and the core is a little better organized. Let’s wait and see what happens during dmax tonight.

No doubt. And let’s see if the models back off on intensification to and maybe a hair after landfall. I don’t think so. Should burst tonight and then again tomorrow and then tomorrow night for good. Shout out to Hankfrank from the good old days. I gotta go check mesos so see y’all in the model thread.

I expect them to back off on intensification if Beryl doesn't improve by morning, probably would expect a max 75mph at landfall if that happens. At this point I think 85 MPH is still a possibility, but things are going to have to change quickly for that to happen.

Most of the early cycle 18z models were TS/Cat 1 but all peaked at Landfall. Reminds me to go look at that before FV3 and NAM run and then ICON I guess would be next

[JKG43]

Did anybody else get the storm surge message on their phones just now or is it just headed straight for my backyard?

In your profile, add your location so that the forum will know exactly where ‘your backyard’ is located. I’ve noticed a lot of members reference their local weather and/or local weather history but they don’t have their respective location included within their profile in order for the forum to see.

Thank you for your guidance. I should have known better than to speak up. I appreciate all of you for your wisdom and guidance.

[USTropics]

Sonde is getting 32 knots of surface wind for example on last pass. 996mb with 32 knots of surface wind, so maybe a pressure around 993mb.

Before that 996mb with 27 knots. I assume it is tilted some still. I don't know a lot about that kind of thing, I just write some software to interpret the stuff, but it would seem to me it's tilted some based on that.

On the last pass they released it around when the wind was noted as suspect at flight level, which a lot are this mission, but it was 4 knots. First wind reported in sonde text released was at 708mb level and it was 10 knots. At surface it was 32 knots. Dropped around 24.57N 93.74W and landed at 24.57N 93.76W. So I would say it's tilted based on that.

Congrats on 5k posts! I'm not really seeing the vertical tilt in recon/dropsondes. If we take a cross-section of HWRF analysis, we can see Beryl doesn't have much tilt:


We can see in the CIMSS 200mb product that our ULL to the west has started to weaken as well (which has been the main culprit for the shear/tilt):


As I previously posted, DMIN + pulse down has degraded the appearance of Beryl on IR, but if we take a look at enhanced WV on TT, the dark blacks (dry air) are starting to fill in on the eastern and northern quadrant:


Watch for this inflow band highlighted in pink here and see if it expands to east. This will be a good indication that Beryl is starting to 'wall off' the dry air and can begin to intensify later this evening:

[wx98]

Still looking like a Port O’Connor area landfall early Monday morning as a Cat 1 and potentially up to Cat 2. Main risk up the coast to Galveston will be storm surge.

[cutterwx]

A note that other have also mentioned -

Even the most bullish of models (HWRF, etc.) don't show all that much strengthening tonight. Structural improvement? Yes. But, most data suggest the most strengthening will occur within 12-18 hours of landfall.