ATL: BERYL - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[FLpanhandle91]

Sonde is getting 32 knots of surface wind for example on last pass. 996mb with 32 knots of surface wind, so maybe a pressure around 993mb.

Before that 996mb with 27 knots. I assume it is tilted some still. I don't know a lot about that kind of thing, I just write some software to interpret the stuff, but it would seem to me it's tilted some based on that.

On the last pass they released it around when the wind was noted as suspect at flight level, which a lot are this mission, but it was 4 knots. First wind reported in sonde text released was at 708mb level and it was 10 knots. At surface it was 32 knots. Dropped around 24.57N 93.74W and landed at 24.57N 93.76W. So I would say it's tilted based on that.

Congrats on 5k posts! I'm not really seeing the vertical tilt in recon/dropsondes. If we take a cross-section of HWRF analysis, we can see Beryl doesn't have much tilt:
https://i.imgur.com/F6KuZKC.png

We can see in the CIMSS 200mb product that our ULL to the west has started to weaken as well (which has been the main culprit for the shear/tilt):
https://i.imgur.com/ZMtu1ig.gif

As I previously posted, DMIN + pulse down has degraded the appearance of Beryl on IR, but if we take a look at enhanced WV on TT, the dark blacks (dry air) are starting to fill in on the eastern and northern quadrant:
https://i.ibb.co/Dg5Zmkf/goes16-wv-rgb-02-L-202407070042.gif

Watch for this inflow band highlighted in pink here and see if it expands to east. This will be a good indication that Beryl is starting to 'wall off' the dry air and can begin to intensify later this evening:
https://i.imgur.com/Ltkdkwi.png

Great post man. Just the type of stuff you don't find anywhere else.

[GCANE]

Last eyedrop showed no hint of any dry air in the core.
5500 CAPE now to the NW of the LLC.
Looks like the unstable air mass will slowly entrain in.

[GCANE]

CIMSS analysis just came in.
Shear down to 15knots

[GalvestonDuck]

Voluntary evacuations have been ordered for Galveston Island’s west end effective 10 a.m. tomorrow morning.

[GCANE]

Good convection firing to the NW of the LLC.
Obvious effect of the high CAPE air entraining in.

[mpic]

I didn’t see a reply so here’s my 2 cents, if it were my family I would tell them not to go to Conroe. Go west. Even if they just go to San Antonio, they can always come to y’all in Conroe after.

Relatives who live in an RV at Port Aransas have until 3pm tomorrow to pull out. They are ready to that. The problem is, do they come here to Conroe or should they go someplace west? Don't want them to wait too long so they end up driving in winds, but don't want them to drive exactly where the storm might come. Forecasts among mets here seem to be all over the place right now. How long do you think it will be before a Houston landfall or a more eastern track can be ruled out?

Thank you! They ended up finding a place in Mathis which is west of Corpus. Glad they got out of being in the eye and actually found a place to park. It's also half of the driving distance.

[GCANE]

Recon dodged the convection

[ConvergenceZone]

No doubt. And let’s see if the models back off on intensification to and maybe a hair after landfall. I don’t think so. Should burst tonight and then again tomorrow and then tomorrow night for good. Shout out to Hankfrank from the good old days. I gotta go check mesos so see y’all in the model thread.

I expect them to back off on intensification if Beryl doesn't improve by morning, probably would expect a max 75mph at landfall if that happens. At this point I think 85 MPH is still a possibility, but things are going to have to change quickly for that to happen.

Most of the early cycle 18z models were TS/Cat 1 but all peaked at Landfall. Reminds me to go look at that before FV3 and NAM run and then ICON I guess would be next

Initially I was planning on staying home tomorrow thinking that with an intensifying hurricane this board would be going insane, but I no longer think that, so 'm just going to use tomorrow to run some errands and visit some friends etc..... I figure I'll get plenty of board time in come August and September

[ConvergenceZone]

Another nice thing about Beryl being so weak is that due to the slow traffic on this board, it makes the job of the Mods easier....I think late August and September will be nuts, when the tropics really get going.

This thread has been pretty active most pages for a storm since Ian in 2022.

Most of that activity happened when Beryl was breaking records and was looking to be a "potential" major in the gulf. Not so much over the last day or two. But that's normal for weak systems.

[loon]

Impressive blow up last few frames. Always interesting watching these things at night.

[869MB]

In your profile, add your location so that the forum will know exactly where ‘your backyard’ is located. I’ve noticed a lot of members reference their local weather and/or local weather history but they don’t have their respective location included within their profile in order for the forum to see.

Im in Sweeny Texas...I haven't got any messages...I think we are under a TS Warning here?...but im not far from Matagorda...so I dunno if there's really a difference in conditions possible here...Nicholas landfalled at Sargent...it was thunder and blitzen here for sure...I have fam in Sargent...I think they have voluntary evacuations goin on there..I am guessing you are on the shore?...I do they broadcast surge warnings in inland towns and such?...I dunno...

Thanks for the tip. I'm sorry for the lapse. I've been a lurker for a decade and have never posted. I'm in Baytown, Texas somewhat close to the bay and definitely close to some problematic creeks, but we've never flooded here. Everyone be safe.

Good deal. We’re really glad that you’re posting now. So I can assume you received the alert that you did because your location is most likely included in the NHC’s Storm Surge Warning which can be found on the National Hurricane Center’s website…https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at2+shtml/212126.shtml?wsurge#contents

[cheezyWXguy]

I expect them to back off on intensification if Beryl doesn't improve by morning, probably would expect a max 75mph at landfall if that happens. At this point I think 85 MPH is still a possibility, but things are going to have to change quickly for that to happen.

Most of the early cycle 18z models were TS/Cat 1 but all peaked at Landfall. Reminds me to go look at that before FV3 and NAM run and then ICON I guess would be next

Initially I was planning on staying home tomorrow thinking that with an intensifying hurricane this board would be going insane, but I no longer think that, so 'm just going to use tomorrow to run some errands and visit some friends etc..... I figure I'll get plenty of board time in come August and September

It isn’t tomorrow yet. This is a little bit of a delicate situation where people aren’t taking beryl very seriously because it looks messy right now. The potential is there for beryl to intensify a good deal in the final hours before landfall and catch a lot of people off guard. Whether it realizes that potential is in question, and you’re entitled to prepare (or not) however you want, but it’s too early to post sentiments suggesting that this isn’t living up to the threat it was once thought to be.

As others have said, if you live in the area expected to be affected, prepare for 1-2 categories above forecast. If it doesn’t pan out, you’ll already be prepared for the next threat and if it does you’ll certainly be glad you did.

[Anti-freeze]

New track is still just west of Port Carroll O'Connor. Cone narrowed, now from the Corpus-N. Padre Island bridge to east of Sargent, in Houston the eastern edge moved from Deer Park to west of downtown Houston.

Not wanting to get too focused on exactness, but for Houstonians, hoping that's a trend.

[loon]

Long time for us (Houston) to be on the N/NE/E side of the storm. Hopefully the rains are spread out to give time for run off.

[HurricaneBelle]

Pretty sure this is going to be one of those storms where people say right after landfall "if it only had (X) more hours over water..."

[jabman98]

Long time for us (Houston) to be on the N/NE/E side of the storm. Hopefully the rains are spread out to give time for run off.

So not looking forward to this. Can't wait for the piles of tree debris from the derecho to turn into projectiles in Beryl's winds. Ugh.

[ConvergenceZone]

Most of the early cycle 18z models were TS/Cat 1 but all peaked at Landfall. Reminds me to go look at that before FV3 and NAM run and then ICON I guess would be next

Initially I was planning on staying home tomorrow thinking that with an intensifying hurricane this board would be going insane, but I no longer think that, so 'm just going to use tomorrow to run some errands and visit some friends etc..... I figure I'll get plenty of board time in come August and September

It isn’t tomorrow yet. This is a little bit of a delicate situation where people aren’t taking beryl very seriously because it looks messy right now. The potential is there for beryl to intensify a good deal in the final hours before landfall and catch a lot of people off guard. Whether it realizes that potential is in question, and you’re entitled to prepare (or not) however you want, but it’s too early to post sentiments suggesting that this isn’t living up to the threat it was once thought to be.

As others have said, if you live in the area expected to be affected, prepare for 1-2 categories above forecast. If it doesn’t pan out, you’ll already be prepared for the next threat and if it does you’ll certainly be glad you did.

Sorry, I should have mentioned that I'm in Sacramento not Texas , so I don't have to prepare I was referring to running errands and such as opposed to watching this forum, which is what I was going to do originally.

[Steve]

Pretty sure this is going to be one of those storms where people say right after landfall "if it only had (X) more hours over water..."

That’s right. It did get its fair share of time over water. Sometimes it was moving like 19 mph. It hit Cat 5. Maybe ends up 35-36 ACE? It got disrupted but probably still kicks some ass in the end.

[Hurricane Mike]

11PM video on Beryl
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oAMGZjEI8Uc

[tolakram]