ATL: BERYL - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[ROCK]

Recon heading back for a center fix..not sure it did much since last one. Doesn’t seem like it..

Reminds me of Humberto…

[IcyTundra]

Recon heading back for a center fix..not sure it did much since last one. Doesn’t seem like it..

Reminds me of Humberto…

I was just thinking about Humberto the other day. Humberto RI'd in the final hours similar to how I think Beryl will. I'm thinking Beryl will be a combination of Nicholas (landfall location near East Matagorda or Sargent) and Humberto.

[Blinhart]

I leave for a couple of hours and she falls completely apart, glad it happened, but completely shocked.

[bob rulz]

Even if it does take until about 18ish hours before landfall to intensify, I wouldn't rule out a cat 2. A cat 3 does seem quite unlikely at this point.

[Steve]

I leave for a couple of hours and she falls completely apart, glad it happened, but completely shocked.

lol. Gotta be a bit blin.

[Stratton23]

Blinhart incorrect, the vortex has become more vertically stacked, wind field has gotten tighter, its not falling apart, its DMIN right now, dont be fooled

[weeniepatrol]

Excerpt from NHC discussion 34 posted 60 minutes ago

Beryl is currently in an environment of about 10 to 15 kt of
southerly vertical wind shear and surrounded by dry air, especially
on the south side of the circulation. However, the storm is expected
to move into an area of decreasing wind shear, and the global models
show the moisture increasing near the core. In fact, the SHIPS
model shows the shear decreasing to very low levels (less than 5 kt)
just prior to Beryl reaching the coast. These conditions combined
with a diffluent upper-level wind pattern should support notable
strengthening just prior to landfall. In fact, the hurricane
regional models HAFS-A, HAFS-B, HWRF, and HMON all show only gradual
strengthening during the next 12-24 hours, followed by significant
intensification just hours before Beryl makes landfall. Based on
the guidance and large-scale factors, there is a chance of rapid
intensification if Beryl becomes better vertically aligned, and it
is possible that it strengthens more between the 24- and 36-h
predictions.

Don't sleep on Beryl.

[SoupBone]

I leave for a couple of hours and she falls completely apart, glad it happened, but completely shocked.

I mean, it is DMIN. That's not entirely surprising.

[wx98]

New track is still just west of Port Carroll O'Connor. Cone narrowed, now from the Corpus-N. Padre Island bridge to east of Sargent, in Houston the eastern edge moved from Deer Park to west of downtown Houston.

Not wanting to get too focused on exactness, but for Houstonians, hoping that's a trend.

The track has been effectively the same the last few updates. The cone only narrows because it is now closer in time. Not really a trend either way. The effects will still be the same, so being removed from the cone isn’t a saving grace, but merely a by-product of track error at any given time for the center of circulation.

[HurricaneBrain]

I’m expecting tropical storm watches/warnings extending further up the coast tomorrow morning into Sabine Pass. GFS moved a bit east with a 975mb landfall just below Freeport.

[Anti-freeze]

New track is still just west of Port Carroll O'Connor. Cone narrowed, now from the Corpus-N. Padre Island bridge to east of Sargent, in Houston the eastern edge moved from Deer Park to west of downtown Houston.

Not wanting to get too focused on exactness, but for Houstonians, hoping that's a trend.

The track has been effectively the same the last few updates. The cone only narrows because it is now closer in time. Not really a trend either way. The effects will still be the same, so being removed from the cone isn’t a saving grace, but merely a by-product of track error at any given time for the center of circulation.

But the tracks staying basically the same each update is a new trend and a win for Houstonians, compared to what was repeated shifts east/north/right yesterday.

Unfortunately if the latest GFS is an indication, rather than an anomaly, that pattern shifting closer to Houston may return.

[ROCK]

I’m expecting tropical storm watches/warnings extending further up the coast tomorrow morning into Sabine Pass. GFS moved a bit east with a 975mb landfall just below Freeport.

Yeah I sort of agree with you but maybe not as far as Sabine given current guidance.

GFS totally caved to the ICON..same location ICON has it for like 4 days now lol…

[UTSARoadrunner4]

How long does DMIN last?

[Blinhart]

Blinhart incorrect, the vortex has become more vertically stacked, wind field has gotten tighter, its not falling apart, its DMIN right now, dont be fooled

Talking looks, I understand that everything is go for full speed resumption of intensification.

[InfernoFlameCat]

How long does DMIN last?

It should be over and things should become more favorable as we approach sunrise(Dmax)

[IsabelaWeather]

I leave for a couple of hours and she falls completely apart, glad it happened, but completely shocked.

I mean, it is DMIN. That's not entirely surprising.

WDYM DMIN??? DMIN was at like 8pm, not near midnight. I agree to not sleep on it, but the storm looks like crap right now. There has been no convection near the core in hours. I would believe Beryl doesn't do much, probably a high end TS. Pretty confident the storm wont be anything Texas can't handle. But you can never let your guard down with these types of systems.

[hurricaneCW]

I leave for a couple of hours and she falls completely apart, glad it happened, but completely shocked.

I mean, it is DMIN. That's not entirely surprising.

WDYM DMIN??? DMIN was at like 8pm, not near midnight. I agree to not sleep on it, but the storm looks like crap right now. There has been no convection near the core in hours. I would believe Beryl doesn't do much, probably a high end TS. Pretty confident the storm wont be anything Texas can't handle. But you can never let your guard down with these types of systems.

Expect major bursting and rapid organization over next 24hrs.

[dexterlabio]

A Cat1 impact is more than enough reason to NOT let your guards down...regardless if it indeed RI to Cat3+ or not.

[ROCK]

Recon heading back towards center for a fix. Not sure they are going to find anything too shocking right now.

Those guys have been in there a good while. Kudos to them.

[IsabelaWeather]

I mean, it is DMIN. That's not entirely surprising.

WDYM DMIN??? DMIN was at like 8pm, not near midnight. I agree to not sleep on it, but the storm looks like crap right now. There has been no convection near the core in hours. I would believe Beryl doesn't do much, probably a high end TS. Pretty confident the storm wont be anything Texas can't handle. But you can never let your guard down with these types of systems.

Expect major bursting and rapid organization over next 24hrs.

We will see, ive seen many storms not be able to recover from a complete core collapse from land. Beryl is not looking good right now. Its easier to start with nothing than rebuild an old ripped apart core.