ATL: BERYL - Models

[Steve]

I will be definitely considering the ICON the rest of this season for sure...

Probably my 5th time saying this since I started posting on Beryl. Don’t always trust it but consider it for the models that have a tropical Atlantic reach. It’s good sometimes. Not so good sometimes. It’s not blind squirrel ****. It just sometimes is way ahead of the curve. Should be running now

[catskillfire51]

Icon - Slight shift West towards East Matagorda Bay, roughly the same strength as earlier.

[loon]

I will be definitely considering the ICON the rest of this season for sure...

Probably my 5th time saying this since I started posting on Beryl. Don’t always trust it but consider it for the models that have a tropical Atlantic reach. It’s good sometimes. Not so good sometimes. It’s not blind squirrel ****. It just sometimes is way ahead of the curve. Should be running now

Interesting that they just open sourced that model software this year. I’ll be watching it just for that

[Steve]

Icon - Slight shift West towards East Matagorda Bay, roughly the same strength as earlier.

Perfect. Literally my call but I have it at 982 and it’s 980. It was also the model from 5+ days ago that went north after landfall. So let’s see because from here Houston would take a good shot if it’s maintaining that type of inland track.

[catskillfire51]

Icon - Slight shift West towards East Matagorda Bay, roughly the same strength as earlier.

Perfect. Literally my call but I have it at 982 and it’s 980. It was also the model from 5+ days ago that went north after landfall. So let’s see because from here Houston would take a good shot if it’s maintaining that type of inland track.

It does go due North, main swath of rain from Lake Jackson straight up to Huntsville through Houston.

[Steve]

So I’m not sure miles as the crow flies or degrees but from Jefferson/Orange County many days ago to a bit down a sloped coast was solid.

Looks like it’s going to smack Houston and maybe west/northwest more to me. Also a hair east of due north after landfall so still headed for Texarkana through Piney Woods. If it verifies that’s pretty damn good.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0700&fh=33

[ROCK]

So I’m not sure miles as the crow flies or degrees but from Jefferson/Orange County many days ago to a bit down a sloped coast was solid.

Looks like it’s going to smack Houston and maybe west/northwest more to me. Also a hair east of due north after landfall so still headed for Texarkana through Piney Woods. If it verifies that’s pretty damn good.



https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0700&fh=33

Yeah that run looks like many others it ran over the last few days. Good smack to Houston..

[jabman98]

The ICON has been pretty spot on. Kind of amazing when all the others were showing south of the border final landfall.

[Steve]

The ICON has been pretty spot on. Kind of amazing when all the others were showing south of the border final landfall.

Yeah. I run it during hurricane season anyway. But it for sure earned a seat at the big dog table for a little while. Not much data for this time of year and a system that cruised the Caribbean on its way to Texas. Kudos to the Germans

[Ptarmigan]

I will be definitely considering the ICON the rest of this season for sure...

Probably my 5th time saying this since I started posting on Beryl. Don’t always trust it but consider it for the models that have a tropical Atlantic reach. It’s good sometimes. Not so good sometimes. It’s not blind squirrel ****. It just sometimes is way ahead of the curve. Should be running now

Interesting that they just open sourced that model software this year. I’ll be watching it just for that

ICON has handled Beryl quite well so far.

ICON weather and climate model published as open source - A milestone in weather and climate research
https://www.admin.ch/gov/en/start/docum ... and%20days.

[IcyTundra]

00Z GFS stronger and further east into Sargent

[HurricaneBrain]

GFS further up the coast near Freeport at landfall. Stronger too.

[ROCK]

That puts the west end of Galveston in NE quad and most of Houston in the eastern eye wall…ouch..

I think the GFS is seeing a stronger storm thus the shift…

[LSU Saint]

Houston we have a problem

[HurricaneBrain]

Here’s a GIF of the last 4 GFS runs near landfall. You can see the obvious east trend run to run.

[Steve]

Posted in the wrong thread but CMC in the ballpark I think. Could be stronger though.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0700&fh=36

[LARanger]

Here’s a GIF of the last 4 GFS runs near landfall. You can see the obvious east trend run to run.

Could be worse.



Edit: This isn't a fair comparison, actually, since it features fewer Euro runs per day . . . the GFS wouldn't look any better given the same run times.

[ROCK]

HMON and HWRF rolling in. Shouldn’t be long.

[cutterwx]

HMON and HWRF rolling in. Shouldn’t be long.

HAFS-A just a strong as previous ones (970-975MB) and a hair further east; Matagorda or far western Brazoria County landfall.

Important to note that the wind and pressure relationship may be interesting with this one. Rather small circulation.

[LARanger]

NAM 3km conus is what everyone will be talking about though

957 but with no change in track compared to other models? Odd one, that.