ATL: BERYL - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[utweather]

Got some good rains in the Austin area today partially related to Beryl. I expect the same tomorrow and Monday. It will be beneficial. Winds are still low on Beryl so good there also. Mets explained why earlier today so not expecting major impacts and the trajectory has it not stalling out inland westward and bombing anyone with catastrophic flooding. So that is good also. Keep looking weak Beryl and I wishcast you to stay a TS or a depression if you feel like it.

[Stratton23]

Unfortunately thats not going to happen

[Pas_Bon]

Well, Friday looked ominous for League City. Friday night late into Saturday morning looked better. Saturday night into Sunday morning does not look great. I think all these model shifts have added probably 15-25mph or so to our sustained winds experience.
I wrecked my lower back last night moving patio furniture indoors and I still have stuff to move in, but I’m now immobilized. FML.
We had 3+” of rain today. We did not need that pre-game, but oh, well. I can’t remember seeing it rain that hard.

[catskillfire51]

Looks like the eye is trying to wrap around now. May be getting her act together.

[Jr0d]

Not looking impressive tonight despite the many of the global models suggesting this could make a strong run maybe even RI before landfall.

Despite the lack of deep convection, there still seems to be a vigorous circulation...maybe this waning of convection will give her a chance to be stacked when she pops off tomorrow.

[chaser1]

How long does DMIN last?

As long as Beryl continues to "dry-heave" as a result of that easterly shear and inability to moisten up its core. Wait a second? Did I just say "easterly shear" in the GOM?? What kind of inverse reality are we living in LOL?

Looking at satellite water vapor, one can plainly see the prominent dry slot from NE of center, and wrapping fully around Beryl until about NW of center. Essentially, there just ain't any deep rich feed of moisture that will magically renourish Beryl's former circulation wind field. Thus the reasoning that a very small tight center might eventually reintensify if/when the shear slackens substantially enough for Beryl to reinvent itself. I think the dry air will remain around the storms' perimeter throughout leaving perhaps a tiny densely convective core to eventually landfall looking more like a large (Fujita scale) F-0, then typical tropical cyclone. I think all of the hurricane models are overly deepening a broader wind field then what time will allow.

[TomballEd]

We're lucky Beryl will almost certainly be a strong TS or a minimal hurricane, because the >50 year old NOAA planes based on a Viet Nam era submarine patrol planes based on a 1950s passenger plane is not reliable. It pretty clearly turned back early, it'll be almost 12 hours before the 1730Z USAF mission sends back the first measure of winds and estimated pressure, maybe an hour earlier just after noon CDT. The NOAA planes fail during missions on a regular basis, there probably should have been a 12Z plane scheduled. In a year with probably double the normal seasonal storms, hurricanes and major hurricanes, a near 12 hour gap between center fixes on a hurricane inside of a day from US landfall will be potentially disastrous.

[ElectricStorm]

Can't ever trust the gulf since a lot of these systems over the last several years like to get going right before landfall, but seeing how it looks now I'm not really buying any RI scenarios. Most intensity guidance now suggests at or below minimal Cat 1 at landfall, with the exception of HAFS-B showing a Cat 2. I'm thinking we'll see a 55-70kt landfall but likely not much more than that but we'll see.

[Chris_in_Tampa]

Various radars...



Interactive displays:

https://mrms.nssl.noaa.gov/qvs/product_ ... _active=on

https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/map/?&zoom=7&c ... _loop=true

https://radar.weather.gov/?settings=v1_ ... Z9fQ%3D%3D

https://realearth.ssec.wisc.edu/?produc ... t=nexrrain

https://www.wunderground.com/wundermap? ... rm-cells=0

Others:

https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=s ... =undefined
Other closer options available in "View Localized Sectors".

Long loop:
https://bmcnoldy.earth.miami.edu/tropics/radar/

https://vortex.plymouth.edu/mapwall/sat ... od_name=sp

[Pas_Bon]

Her first salvo just came ashore a short while ago in Galveston County and other stretches along the upper TX coast.
No wind. Just light rain and a smattering of thunder and lightning.

[CronkPSU]

https://x.com/webberweather/status/1809 ... FezRDDrNhw

[Tweet] https://x.com/webberweather/status/1809 ... FezRDDrNhw[/Tweet]

[ChrisH-UK]

Beryl doesn't look to be im a good state at the moment it still has circulation but the effects of dry air and shear has killed or pushed the convection away from the circulation. It is showing signs of rebuilding with new convection happening.

Source - https://col.st/WBooX

[GCANE]

A nice feeder band has developed from the high CAPE area in the middle of the GoM.
Currently at 4500.
Appears the convection is increasing in the band indicating Beryl has a strong foothold and very likely will intensify.

[GCANE]

Looks like a small hot tower is on the eyewall

[GCANE]

CIMSS now has shear down to 9 knots.

[GCANE]

She's going
Impressive feeder band development.


https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=r ... =undefined

[GCANE]

Tower doesn't look small anymore. Good helicity.
Merlin engine cranking up.

[GCANE]

Deadly beauty

[Hurrilurker]

Convection finally refiring over the center. -80 cloud tops seen for the first time in a while.

[catskillfire51]

Deadly beauty

Appears to be working out the dry slot to the NE as well