ATL: BERYL - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[GCANE]

Looks like the eyewall is coming together quickly on radar.
Appears pretty wide.

https://mrms.nssl.noaa.gov/qvs/product_ ... _active=on

[GCANE]

Kermit just launched from Tampa.
However it looks like he may turn back

[GCANE]

Looks like later this afternoon she will tap into the EPAC fuel thru the IoT

https://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/ ... latest.gif

[Anti-freeze]

Track shifts east 30 miles to Palacios, cone shifts east to include all of Houston inside Beltway 8, Hurricane Warning extended east to San Luis Pass, Hurr Watch extended east to Galveston.

Appears now that this will be a Houston hurricane.

Beryl continues to move northwestward, though a little more poleward
than before estimated at 320/10 kt. Over the next 24 hours, Beryl is
expected to turn north-northwestward or even northward before the
system makes landfall along the Texas coast in a little more than 24
hours. The track guidance this cycle has made a shift eastward and
is a little faster, and the NHC track forecast has also shifted in
that direction, in between the latest TCVN and HCCA consensus aids.
It is worth noting that some guidance, such as the GFS and HAFS-A
are even further east. After Beryl moves inland, the latest guidance
shows the system accelerating farther northeastward, ultimately
phasing with a mid-latitude trough over the Ohio Valley while it
transitions into a post-tropical cyclone.

Even though Beryl has not intensified over the past day, vertical
wind shear is in the process of decreasing below 10 kt over the
storm this morning, which should provide it with a 24-30 hour window
to start intensifying as it mixes out the dry air that prevented
persistent organized convection around the core. The fastest rate of
intensification is likely to occur right before landfall, and the
latest intensity forecast still shows Beryl becoming a hurricane
again in 24 hours, with some additional intensification possible
right up until landfall. This forecast is consistent with the
hurricane-regional models that also show the most significant
intensification right before Beryl makes landfall. There also
remains some potential that Beryl could rapidly intensify before
landfall, with the latest SHIPS-RII suggesting this possibility is
2-3 times above climatology.

It is important to note that the average NHC track error at 24-36
hours is about 30-50 miles and the average intensity error is close
to one category. Users are reminded to consider these uncertainties
when using the forecast information. Based on changes to the
forecast track this advisory, Hurricane Warnings have been extended
northward up to San Luis Pass.

[Chris_in_Tampa]

There was supposed to be a 2:30am EDT departing Air Force mission, but that doesn't seem to have ever taken off. The NOAA plane turned around and landed.

If those two don't happen, the next recon will be Air Force departing at 11:45am EDT and set to arrive at 1:30pm EDT. NOAA departs at 4pm EDT and arrives at 8pm EDT.

There was supposed to be fixes every 3 hours now, but I guess aircraft and other issues come up sometimes. Not sure what's the case here.

[ChrisH-UK]

Radar out of Brownsville starting to show the eye

[Chris_in_Tampa]

Air Force mission about ready to take off from Biloxi, MS.

[GCANE]

In a large area of low shear now.
If it wasn't for that ULL, Beryl would be in a solid anti-cyclonic wave break (AWB) and would be a couple notches higher in intensity.
So, it looks like on approach, the ULL will be sufficiently removed from Beryl and she could get some benefit of the AWB,

[GCANE]

Mission canceled for Kermit, back in Tampa

[GCANE]

CAPE up to 5000

[GCANE]

Last microwave sounder showed a near symmetrical cold pool around the CoC centered at 600mb. Well structured for supporting development.

https://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/ ... _xsect.gif

[Chris_in_Tampa]

Air Force recon took off at 5:43AM EDT from Biloxi, MS.

[loon]

Well, someone gonna have to buy ICON a beer or something.

Looks much better this morning as expected. Looks like we might get a closer shave after all. How fast and how big does she get. Helluva start to the season for sure.

[MEANINGLESS_NUMBERS]

Going to run out of water before it becomes much of anything.

[GalvestonWXGeek]

Going to run out of water before it becomes much of anything.

Now this is the type of "-removed-" I can get on board with!!

[AdamFirst]

Can see the center trying to close off on Brownsville radar. It's really come along. Nothing but up from here up until landfall.

[Odeseus]

Going to run out of water before it becomes much of anything.

I hope you’re correct. I’m very glad to see a tropical storm as I woke up this morning. Hoping somehow it stays that way.

I LOVE to see cat 5 monsters but I MUCH prefer to see them from afar. Fish storms are the best storms.

[Nimbus]

Track shifts east 30 miles to Palacios, cone shifts east to include all of Houston inside Beltway 8, Hurricane Warning extended east to San Luis Pass, Hurr Watch extended east to Galveston.

Appears now that this will be a Houston hurricane.

Beryl continues to move northwestward, though a little more poleward
than before estimated at 320/10 kt. Over the next 24 hours, Beryl is
expected to turn north-northwestward or even northward before the
system makes landfall along the Texas coast in a little more than 24
hours. The track guidance this cycle has made a shift eastward and
is a little faster, and the NHC track forecast has also shifted in
that direction, in between the latest TCVN and HCCA consensus aids.
It is worth noting that some guidance, such as the GFS and HAFS-A
are even further east. After Beryl moves inland, the latest guidance
shows the system accelerating farther northeastward, ultimately
phasing with a mid-latitude trough over the Ohio Valley while it
transitions into a post-tropical cyclone.

Even though Beryl has not intensified over the past day, vertical
wind shear is in the process of decreasing below 10 kt over the
storm this morning, which should provide it with a 24-30 hour window
to start intensifying as it mixes out the dry air that prevented
persistent organized convection around the core. The fastest rate of
intensification is likely to occur right before landfall, and the
latest intensity forecast still shows Beryl becoming a hurricane
again in 24 hours, with some additional intensification possible
right up until landfall. This forecast is consistent with the
hurricane-regional models that also show the most significant
intensification right before Beryl makes landfall. There also
remains some potential that Beryl could rapidly intensify before
landfall, with the latest SHIPS-RII suggesting this possibility is
2-3 times above climatology.

It is important to note that the average NHC track error at 24-36
hours is about 30-50 miles and the average intensity error is close
to one category. Users are reminded to consider these uncertainties
when using the forecast information. Based on changes to the
forecast track this advisory, Hurricane Warnings have been extended
northward up to San Luis Pass.

The track did shift east a little.
As WXman57 always advises don't focus on the exact track.
Most of the heavy wind squalls blowing in off the gulf will be north of the storm.

[Bimms]

Going to run out of water before it becomes much of anything.

I wouldn't bet on that. Local Mets are talking about the warm waters and what they are seeing. KPRC just said a couple of minutes ago that it could rapidly intensify right before landfall. Possibly cat 2 not out the question.

[Charleswachal]

Going to run out of water before it becomes much of anything.

I wouldn't bet on that. Local Mets are talking about the warm waters and what they are seeing. KPRC just said a couple of minutes ago that it could rapidly intensify right before landfall. Possibly cat 2 not out the question.

She is starting to look very healthy this morning, especially on radar. I'm in Houston and I'm preparing for a category but I also know it's not impossible for it to make it to a category 3 today.