ATL: BERYL - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Tailgater33]

Man she isn’t wobbling much to the north! She needs to turn soon… gfs shifted a little west again. Is she expected to make a drastic turn to north?

And now the wobble watching starts in earnest. I do like it when I can watch a storm getting its act together on radar. Sorry Texas, hope it just brings needed rain w/o to much damage

[jaguars_22]

Radar has been showing the center wobbling more westward… I don’t see much of a northern component right now… sattelite may look like it’s heading north but look at radar

[Nuno]

Man she isn’t wobbling much to the north! She needs to turn soon… gfs shifted a little west again. Is she expected to make a drastic turn to north?

The time to stop model watching is now, the storm is in range of some excellent radars. That's what you should be focusing on so close to landfall.

[GCANE]

Surprised recon not giving reports on the eye.
Looks really good on radar, about to close off

[capNstorms]

everyone needs to see this poleward shift, here is a good source

https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/goes/floater.php?stormid=AL022024#homePageLink

[capNstorms]

 https://x.com/mattlanza/status/1809240462592512402



Pro mets in Houston are very confident that Beryl isn't much of a risk to Galveston. Let's hope they are right.

"Pro mets in Houston are very confident that Beryl isn't much of a risk to Galveston"

oh have the tables have turned

SCW screwed up bad. About four days ago they said it may results in some rain and wrote it off. Even yesterday said impacts manageable and now this morning saying significant impacts with likely heavy power outages.

Big whiff

SETX mets took a big whiff as well, told everyone we were goooood and it was going to mexico/southern texas just before july 4th, no one is thinking about this storm, until now.....

[cheezyWXguy]

Surprised recon not giving reports on the eye.
Looks really good on radar, about to close off

Looks to me like they actually missed the center, which would also explain why the pressure was 1mb higher.

[Charleswachal]

Surprised recon not giving reports on the eye.
Looks really good on radar, about to close off

I don't necessarily think it's an eyewall yet, More like a curved band, but once it closes all the way around it can become an eyewall. But it's still mainly just a curved band of thunderstorms. I do see a lot of thunderstorm activities starting to develop on the east side so it might not be long before it completely closes off

[GCANE]

Looks like starting to connect with the EPAC, a little earlier than I thought.
Could see some big intensification from this later this afternoon,

https://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/ ... latest.gif

[ScottNAtlanta]

Looks like a more north direction via recon

[Charleswachal]

"Pro mets in Houston are very confident that Beryl isn't much of a risk to Galveston"

oh have the tables have turned

SCW screwed up bad. About four days ago they said it may results in some rain and wrote it off. Even yesterday said impacts manageable and now this morning saying significant impacts with likely heavy power outages.

Big whiff

SETX mets took a big whiff as well, told everyone we were goooood and it was going to mexico/southern texas just before july 4th, no one is thinking about this storm, until now.....

Interesting enough. Travis Herzog continued to talk about how it was going to be able to potentially turn and head our way. Many of the other meteorologists in Houston did not say that, but he was constantly saying that. I feel like he had the best handle on the potential for a Houston landfall.

[jaguars_22]

I wanna say the lower pressure may have moved off the west some that’s why it was somewhat higher… wobbling

[jabman98]

 https://x.com/mattlanza/status/1809240462592512402



Pro mets in Houston are very confident that Beryl isn't much of a risk to Galveston. Let's hope they are right.

"Pro mets in Houston are very confident that Beryl isn't much of a risk to Galveston"

oh have the tables have turned

SCW screwed up bad. About four days ago they said it may results in some rain and wrote it off. Even yesterday said impacts manageable and now this morning saying significant impacts with likely heavy power outages.

Big whiff

My neighbor swears by SCW. She's been telling me all week they're not worried so she's not worried. Now this morning waking up to this forecast. She's in a bit of a panic. I've been telling her to look at multiple sources but she doesn't really listen to anyone else.

[ScottNAtlanta]

Surprised recon not giving reports on the eye.
Looks really good on radar, about to close off

Looks to me like they actually missed the center, which would also explain why the pressure was 1mb higher.

Actually there is a very broad region with pressures 993-989 extrapolated.

[ScottNAtlanta]

I wanna say the lower pressure may have moved off the west some that’s why it was somewhat higher… wobbling

The lowest extrapolated pressures were East of where they marked the center

[Tireman4]

SCW screwed up bad. About four days ago they said it may results in some rain and wrote it off. Even yesterday said impacts manageable and now this morning saying significant impacts with likely heavy power outages.

Big whiff

SETX mets took a big whiff as well, told everyone we were goooood and it was going to mexico/southern texas just before july 4th, no one is thinking about this storm, until now.....

Interesting enough. Travis Herzog continued to talk about how it was going to be able to potentially turn and head our way. Many of the other meteorologists in Houston did not say that, but he was constantly saying that. I feel like he had the best handle on the potential for a Houston landfall.

Travis is a quality met, BS in Meteorology from A&M. I think the models were having issues all along ( the ICON not included). I am not going to yell at Matt Lanza ( he has taken a beating on Twitter or X) , by the way. I still trust him, BS in Meteorology from Rutgers, but he is not the only one that might have whiffed on this. Beryl has not been your typical storm ( major in June and July), first in many categories.

[Charleswachal]

SETX mets took a big whiff as well, told everyone we were goooood and it was going to mexico/southern texas just before july 4th, no one is thinking about this storm, until now.....

Interesting enough. Travis Herzog continued to talk about how it was going to be able to potentially turn and head our way. Many of the other meteorologists in Houston did not say that, but he was constantly saying that. I feel like he had the best handle on the potential for a Houston landfall.

Travis is a quality met, BS in Meteorology from A&M. I think the models were having issues all along ( the ICON not included). I am not going to yell at Matt Lanza ( he has taken a beating on Twitter or X) , by the way. I still trust him, BS in Meteorology from Rutgers, but he is not the only one that might have whiffed on this. Beryl has not been your typical storm ( major in June and July), first in many categories.

Yes, but any meteorologist in Houston should know that you never write off a storm in the Gulf until it has made its turn. Way too often we see. Crazy things happen.

[hipshot]

 https://x.com/mattlanza/status/1809240462592512402



Pro mets in Houston are very confident that Beryl isn't much of a risk to Galveston. Let's hope they are right.

"Pro mets in Houston are very confident that Beryl isn't much of a risk to Galveston"

oh have the tables have turned

SCW screwed up bad. About four days ago they said it may results in some rain and wrote it off. Even yesterday said impacts manageable and now this morning saying significant impacts with likely heavy power outages.

Big whiff

Where is RGV?

[HurricaneBrain]

I think the main problem people have with some mets is the extremely confident verbiage they use. For example, three days ago there were Houston mets saying Beryl will be a South Texas storm. Five days ago, Beryl will be hitting Brownsville. Pro met or not, I don’t agree with the usage of that verbiage. Travis does an EXCELLENT job of not doing this, and at the same time, doesn’t instill fear into viewers/Facebook followers. Travis is good about saying a storm is expected to do x, but things could change due to the situation being fluid. Just my two cents.

SCW screwed up bad. About four days ago they said it may results in some rain and wrote it off. Even yesterday said impacts manageable and now this morning saying significant impacts with likely heavy power outages.

Big whiff

SETX mets took a big whiff as well, told everyone we were goooood and it was going to mexico/southern texas just before july 4th, no one is thinking about this storm, until now.....

Interesting enough. Travis Herzog continued to talk about how it was going to be able to potentially turn and head our way. Many of the other meteorologists in Houston did not say that, but he was constantly saying that. I feel like he had the best handle on the potential for a Houston landfall.

[CycloysisNegative]

Interesting enough. Travis Herzog continued to talk about how it was going to be able to potentially turn and head our way. Many of the other meteorologists in Houston did not say that, but he was constantly saying that. I feel like he had the best handle on the potential for a Houston landfall.

Travis is a quality met, BS in Meteorology from A&M. I think the models were having issues all along ( the ICON not included). I am not going to yell at Matt Lanza ( he has taken a beating on Twitter or X) , by the way. I still trust him, BS in Meteorology from Rutgers, but he is not the only one that might have whiffed on this. Beryl has not been your typical storm ( major in June and July), first in many categories.

Yes, but any meteorologist in Houston should know that you never write off a storm in the Gulf until it has made its turn. Way too often we see. Crazy things happen.

Not to mention his misunderstanding of something as basic as the NHCs cone of uncertainty. That’s tough to look past.