ATL: BERYL - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[capNstorms]

Galveston needs to be on HIGH alert. MIDDLE, UPPER TEXAS COAST NOW IN BULLS-EYE.
MATAGORDA, BRAZORIA, GALVESTON, CHAMBERS, JEFFERSON, ORANGE, FORT BEND, LIBERTY, HARDIN, JASPER, NEWTON, TYLER COUNTIES ALSO NEED TO PREPARE.
BERYL MOVING APPROX. 12 mph NNW

[ScottNAtlanta]

SETX mets took a big whiff as well, told everyone we were goooood and it was going to mexico/southern texas just before july 4th, no one is thinking about this storm, until now.....

Interesting enough. Travis Herzog continued to talk about how it was going to be able to potentially turn and head our way. Many of the other meteorologists in Houston did not say that, but he was constantly saying that. I feel like he had the best handle on the potential for a Houston landfall.

Travis is a quality met, BS in Meteorology from A&M. I think the models were having issues all along ( the ICON not included). I am not going to yell at Matt Lanza ( he has taken a beating on Twitter or X) , by the way. I still trust him, BS in Meteorology from Rutgers, but he is not the only one that might have whiffed on this. Beryl has not been your typical storm ( major in June and July), first in many categories.

I don't know who any of these people are, but it's pretty easy to criticize in a forum where you don't have to take into account the consequences of your forecast or the exact wording so you don't have people panicking and such. These people are under a lot of pressure right now. Their wording on things matter, so cut them some slack.

[Charleswachal]

I think the main problem people have with some mets is the extremely confident verbiage they use. For example, three days ago there were Houston mets saying Beryl will be a South Texas storm. Five days ago, Beryl will be hitting Brownsville. Pro met or not, I don’t agree with the usage of that verbiage. Travis does an EXCELLENT job of not doing this, and at the same time, doesn’t instill fear into viewers/Facebook followers. Travis is good about saying a storm is expected to do x, but things could change due to the situation being fluid. Just my two cents.

SETX mets took a big whiff as well, told everyone we were goooood and it was going to mexico/southern texas just before july 4th, no one is thinking about this storm, until now.....

Interesting enough. Travis Herzog continued to talk about how it was going to be able to potentially turn and head our way. Many of the other meteorologists in Houston did not say that, but he was constantly saying that. I feel like he had the best handle on the potential for a Houston landfall.

THIS!

There was so much definitive wording used by so many of the meteorologists. I was posting on my personal Facebook page that I actually thought it was going to go to matagorda Bay over and over again. I was criticized by a lot of people because they would say well. My meteorologist says it's not going here. I kept sharing Travis's posts about the outside risk of it coming to Houston and was criticized pretty bad. Too many meteorologist used definitive wording when talking about how this was going to go to Brownsville.

[Charleswachal]

Recon is getting ready to go in for another pass. Very interested in knowing what this pass is going to say because radar continues to look better and better. We even see some thunderstorms developing even closer to the center inside of the main curved band. We could see another burst of convection as a result of these new thunderstorms developing. I'm watching to see when we start seeing some lightning develop in the inner core.

[ScottNAtlanta]

I think the main problem people have with some mets is the extremely confident verbiage they use. For example, three days ago there were Houston mets saying Beryl will be a South Texas storm. Five days ago, Beryl will be hitting Brownsville. Pro met or not, I don’t agree with the usage of that verbiage. Travis does an EXCELLENT job of not doing this, and at the same time, doesn’t instill fear into viewers/Facebook followers. Travis is good about saying a storm is expected to do x, but things could change due to the situation being fluid. Just my two cents.

Interesting enough. Travis Herzog continued to talk about how it was going to be able to potentially turn and head our way. Many of the other meteorologists in Houston did not say that, but he was constantly saying that. I feel like he had the best handle on the potential for a Houston landfall.

THIS!

There was so much definitive wording used by so many of the meteorologists. I was posting on my personal Facebook page that I actually thought it was going to go to matagorda Bay over and over again. I was criticized by a lot of people because they would say well. My meteorologist says it's not going here. I kept sharing Travis's posts about the outside risk of it coming to Houston and was criticized pretty bad. Too many meteorologist used definitive wording when talking about how this was going to go to Brownsville.

When it comes to the tropics...one should never talk in absolutes. Things can always change in unexpected ways. You can have a 95% chance, but then there is a 5% chance it's wrong

[Tireman4]

"Pro mets in Houston are very confident that Beryl isn't much of a risk to Galveston"

oh have the tables have turned

SCW screwed up bad. About four days ago they said it may results in some rain and wrote it off. Even yesterday said impacts manageable and now this morning saying significant impacts with likely heavy power outages.

Big whiff

Where is RGV?

Rio Grande Valley

[sbcc]

"Pro mets in Houston are very confident that Beryl isn't much of a risk to Galveston"

oh have the tables have turned

SCW screwed up bad. About four days ago they said it may results in some rain and wrote it off. Even yesterday said impacts manageable and now this morning saying significant impacts with likely heavy power outages.

Big whiff

Where is RGV?

Rio Grande Valley. Ha - Tireman beat me to it.

[jasons2k]

Interesting enough. Travis Herzog continued to talk about how it was going to be able to potentially turn and head our way. Many of the other meteorologists in Houston did not say that, but he was constantly saying that. I feel like he had the best handle on the potential for a Houston landfall.

Travis is a quality met, BS in Meteorology from A&M. I think the models were having issues all along ( the ICON not included). I am not going to yell at Matt Lanza ( he has taken a beating on Twitter or X) , by the way. I still trust him, BS in Meteorology from Rutgers, but he is not the only one that might have whiffed on this. Beryl has not been your typical storm ( major in June and July), first in many categories.

I don't know who any of these people are, but it's pretty easy to criticize in a forum where you don't have to take into account the consequences of your forecast or the exact wording so you don't have people panicking and such. These people are under a lot of pressure right now. Their wording on things matter, so cut them some slack.

Well, that’s the thing. You don’t know who they are so you have very little context on this.

Many Houstonians have a long history with these folks and know them well. We quickly pick-up on the differences and nuances of their messaging because it’s part of a long, historical pattern.

In all fairness to SCW they try their best to be impartial and avoid fear-mongering, but some bad calls in the past have now caused SCW to badly bust on a few recent major storm events. The May derecho was one of them and still very fresh in people’s minds around here, so there is some added extra-sensitivity right now. Cut the locals some slack, too

As for Beryl, it’s going pretty much how I expected. Glad I warned everyone I could to prepare and this would come-in stronger and further east. Beryl is going to tighten now up until just past landfall.

[Category5Kaiju]

Uhh...hello?

[capNstorms]

all the conditions are ripe. . . this is about to get fun!

[ScottNAtlanta]

Getting better organized

[CypressMike]

SETX mets took a big whiff as well, told everyone we were goooood and it was going to mexico/southern texas just before july 4th, no one is thinking about this storm, until now.....

Interesting enough. Travis Herzog continued to talk about how it was going to be able to potentially turn and head our way. Many of the other meteorologists in Houston did not say that, but he was constantly saying that. I feel like he had the best handle on the potential for a Houston landfall.

Travis is a quality met, BS in Meteorology from A&M. I think the models were having issues all along ( the ICON not included). I am not going to yell at Matt Lanza ( he has taken a beating on Twitter or X) , by the way. I still trust him, BS in Meteorology from Rutgers, but he is not the only one that might have whiffed on this. Beryl has not been your typical storm ( major in June and July), first in many categories.

Matt and Eric at SCW are both great guys, but they really tout their "no hype" style of forecasting. Although not intentional, I think this causes them to downplay or delay discussing the worst case scenario until it becomes the most likely outcome. I knew it would bite them at some point, and in this case it did. I told Matt yesterday that his job isn't to "not scare" people. It's fine to spend most of your time discussing what you believe to be the likely outcome, but you also need to make folks aware of the full range of potential outcomes - especially when the impacts are significant and affect millions of people. I think they're great meteorologists, but they knew all along that this was a possibility...and they should've made that crystal clear much earlier on. If you read between the lines, they did sort of allude to it...but not in a way that someone with little-to-no meteorological background would understand.

[GCANE]

CIMSS update
Shear down to 7 knots

[capNstorms]

the last few frames really show the system getting its act together

[jabman98]

Travis is a quality met, BS in Meteorology from A&M. I think the models were having issues all along ( the ICON not included). I am not going to yell at Matt Lanza ( he has taken a beating on Twitter or X) , by the way. I still trust him, BS in Meteorology from Rutgers, but he is not the only one that might have whiffed on this. Beryl has not been your typical storm ( major in June and July), first in many categories.

Yes, but any meteorologist in Houston should know that you never write off a storm in the Gulf until it has made its turn. Way too often we see. Crazy things happen.

Not to mention his misunderstanding of something as basic as the NHCs cone of uncertainty. That’s tough to look past.

Travis has been very good. He's by far the best of the local tv mets for forecasting Beryl. On Channel 2 this morning the met said Beryl was due to make landfall on Saturday. There was no catching her mistake or correction later. Messaging like that can be dangerous.

In Houston it really does feel like the calm before the storm right now. Heavy, still air. Not looking forward to what's to come.

[GCANE]

30 dBZ Echo Tops on the east eyewall.

[ROCK]

the last few frames really show the system getting its act together

https://cdn.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES16/GLM/SECTOR/gm/EXTENT3/GOES16-GM-EXTENT3-1000x1000.gif

you can see that trof draped over TX also...

[ScottNAtlanta]

Yes, but any meteorologist in Houston should know that you never write off a storm in the Gulf until it has made its turn. Way too often we see. Crazy things happen.

Not to mention his misunderstanding of something as basic as the NHCs cone of uncertainty. That’s tough to look past.

Travis has been very good. He's by far the best of the local tv mets for forecasting Beryl. On Channel 2 this morning the met said Beryl was due to make landfall on Saturday. There was no catching her mistake or correction later. Messaging like that can be dangerous.

In Houston it really does feel like the calm before the storm right now. Heavy, still air. Not looking forward to what's to come.

I was reading something today about one of the dams north of Houston being in danger of failing. It seems like this is the last thing needed for that.

[GCANE]

Convection now firing off the SW side feeder band.
I mentioned earlier that this may form from a 4000 CAPE pool off the Mexican coast

[CypressMike]

I think the main problem people have with some mets is the extremely confident verbiage they use. For example, three days ago there were Houston mets saying Beryl will be a South Texas storm. Five days ago, Beryl will be hitting Brownsville. Pro met or not, I don’t agree with the usage of that verbiage. Travis does an EXCELLENT job of not doing this, and at the same time, doesn’t instill fear into viewers/Facebook followers. Travis is good about saying a storm is expected to do x, but things could change due to the situation being fluid. Just my two cents.

THIS!

There was so much definitive wording used by so many of the meteorologists. I was posting on my personal Facebook page that I actually thought it was going to go to matagorda Bay over and over again. I was criticized by a lot of people because they would say well. My meteorologist says it's not going here. I kept sharing Travis's posts about the outside risk of it coming to Houston and was criticized pretty bad. Too many meteorologist used definitive wording when talking about how this was going to go to Brownsville.

When it comes to the tropics...one should never talk in absolutes. Things can always change in unexpected ways. You can have a 95% chance, but then there is a 5% chance it's wrong

EXACTLY! Even if there is only a 5% chance of a bad outcome verifying, you have to make people aware of the possibility when the implications of that outcome are this significant.