ATL: BERYL - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Charleswachal]

Yes, but any meteorologist in Houston should know that you never write off a storm in the Gulf until it has made its turn. Way too often we see. Crazy things happen.

Not to mention his misunderstanding of something as basic as the NHCs cone of uncertainty. That’s tough to look past.

Travis has been very good. He's by far the best of the local tv mets for forecasting Beryl. On Channel 2 this morning the met said Beryl was due to make landfall on Saturday. There was no catching her mistake or correction later. Messaging like that can be dangerous.

In Houston it really does feel like the calm before the storm right now. Heavy, still air. Not looking forward to what's to come.

Already getting a few tropical downpours. It is weird the way it feels outside just a heavy humid airmass for sure. Clouds have also looked crazy today with some of the bands surely looking tropical.

[ScottNAtlanta]

the last few frames really show the system getting its act together

https://cdn.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES16/GLM/SECTOR/gm/EXTENT3/GOES16-GM-EXTENT3-1000x1000.gif

you can see that trof draped over TX also...

That's a strong outflow channel there

[lolitx]

Interesting enough. Travis Herzog continued to talk about how it was going to be able to potentially turn and head our way. Many of the other meteorologists in Houston did not say that, but he was constantly saying that. I feel like he had the best handle on the potential for a Houston landfall.

Travis is a quality met, BS in Meteorology from A&M. I think the models were having issues all along ( the ICON not included). I am not going to yell at Matt Lanza ( he has taken a beating on Twitter or X) , by the way. I still trust him, BS in Meteorology from Rutgers, but he is not the only one that might have whiffed on this. Beryl has not been your typical storm ( major in June and July), first in many categories.

Matt and Eric at SCW are both great guys, but they really tout their "no hype" style of forecasting. Although not intentional, I think this causes them to downplay or delay discussing the worst case scenario until it becomes the most likely outcome. I knew it would bite them at some point, and in this case it did. I told Matt yesterday that his job isn't to "not scare" people. It's fine to spend most of your time discussing what you believe to be the likely outcome, but you also need to make folks aware of the full range of potential outcomes - especially when the impacts are significant and affect millions of people. I think they're great meteorologists, but they knew all along that this was a possibility...and they should've made that crystal clear much earlier on. If you read between the lines, they did sort of allude to it...but not in a way that someone with little-to-no meteorological background would understand.

Channel 11 used to have Dr. Neil and he would be honest about everything and I thought he taught David Paul better. I've seen in the past where Wxman57 has been not hyping but being honest. I dont know when or how the models fooled them or what, but dont they have their own forecasting tools to go by as well?

[ROCK]

the last few frames really show the system getting its act together

https://cdn.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES16/GLM/SECTOR/gm/EXTENT3/GOES16-GM-EXTENT3-1000x1000.gif

you can see that trof draped over TX also...

That's a strong outflow channel there

Yep and part of the reasoning for the hook...deeper it gets more influence...

[ScottNAtlanta]

THIS!

There was so much definitive wording used by so many of the meteorologists. I was posting on my personal Facebook page that I actually thought it was going to go to matagorda Bay over and over again. I was criticized by a lot of people because they would say well. My meteorologist says it's not going here. I kept sharing Travis's posts about the outside risk of it coming to Houston and was criticized pretty bad. Too many meteorologist used definitive wording when talking about how this was going to go to Brownsville.

When it comes to the tropics...one should never talk in absolutes. Things can always change in unexpected ways. You can have a 95% chance, but then there is a 5% chance it's wrong

EXACTLY! Even if there is only a 5% chance of a bad outcome verifying, you have to make people aware of the possibility when the implications of that outcome are this significant.

I agree...it's always best when people have all the CORRECT information

[Anti-freeze]

Track shifts east 30 miles to Palacios, cone shifts east to include all of Houston inside Beltway 8, Hurricane Warning extended east to San Luis Pass, Hurr Watch extended east to Galveston.

Appears now that this will be a Houston hurricane.

Beryl continues to move northwestward, though a little more poleward
than before estimated at 320/10 kt. Over the next 24 hours, Beryl is
expected to turn north-northwestward or even northward before the
system makes landfall along the Texas coast in a little more than 24
hours. The track guidance this cycle has made a shift eastward and
is a little faster, and the NHC track forecast has also shifted in
that direction, in between the latest TCVN and HCCA consensus aids.
It is worth noting that some guidance, such as the GFS and HAFS-A
are even further east. After Beryl moves inland, the latest guidance
shows the system accelerating farther northeastward, ultimately
phasing with a mid-latitude trough over the Ohio Valley while it
transitions into a post-tropical cyclone.

Even though Beryl has not intensified over the past day, vertical
wind shear is in the process of decreasing below 10 kt over the
storm this morning, which should provide it with a 24-30 hour window
to start intensifying as it mixes out the dry air that prevented
persistent organized convection around the core. The fastest rate of
intensification is likely to occur right before landfall, and the
latest intensity forecast still shows Beryl becoming a hurricane
again in 24 hours, with some additional intensification possible
right up until landfall. This forecast is consistent with the
hurricane-regional models that also show the most significant
intensification right before Beryl makes landfall. There also
remains some potential that Beryl could rapidly intensify before
landfall, with the latest SHIPS-RII suggesting this possibility is
2-3 times above climatology.

It is important to note that the average NHC track error at 24-36
hours is about 30-50 miles and the average intensity error is close
to one category. Users are reminded to consider these uncertainties
when using the forecast information. Based on changes to the
forecast track this advisory, Hurricane Warnings have been extended
northward up to San Luis Pass.

The track did shift east a little.
As WXman57 always advises don't focus on the exact track.
Most of the heavy wind squalls blowing in off the gulf will be north of the storm.

Hence why I said this looks to be a Houston storm when the track is 45 miles west of downtown Houston. Dirty side.

[ScottNAtlanta]

Also, the further east it goes, the longer it has over water

[GCANE]

Eyedrop has it moving back west now
25.8N 95.0W

[tolakram]

I think mets get in trouble when they post on twitter. It's easy to let the thoughts drip out of the brain and onto a keyboard without much review. Then the rabid defense of a bad tweet causes even more issues.

I do agree though, as I always have, that criticizing mets for following all the tools we have doesn't work too well. We have to use modeling for storms, and you can't trust a single model much like you should not trust a single met. And to beat a dead horse, this is why one prepares prior to the season and simply executes on a plan when needed. I understand that there's a significant number of people who cannot just walk away when they think a storm might hit but instead are relying on the pros to force a move. This reinforces the need to plan ahead.

It's a bit distressing that our modeling tools, while they have improved, are still just not that good when it comes to reliable medium term forecasts for hurricanes.

[txag2005]

I think the main problem people have with some mets is the extremely confident verbiage they use. For example, three days ago there were Houston mets saying Beryl will be a South Texas storm. Five days ago, Beryl will be hitting Brownsville. Pro met or not, I don’t agree with the usage of that verbiage. Travis does an EXCELLENT job of not doing this, and at the same time, doesn’t instill fear into viewers/Facebook followers. Travis is good about saying a storm is expected to do x, but things could change due to the situation being fluid. Just my two cents.

This is an excellent point. Travis Herzog did a fantastic job with this storm, but not because he ended up being right. As you mentioned, Herzog did a great job of balancing the uncertainty of the forecast while also not being sensationalist. It's a tough balance to achieve but Herzog does a great job with it.

In regards to Space City Weather, Matt Lanza and Eric Berger specifically, I don't mind them. I find the posts informative and I've seen them do deep dives into why they missed a forecast (ie. the derecho). The issue with Lanza and Berger is that they tend to make pretty definitive statements, especially in their post titles, likely out of an interest of keeping to their mantra of "hype-free forecasts". I've actually found that they will often post about forecast uncertainty, but it's more subtle and usually buried in a post. Unfortunately, many people don't read far past a headline, so I imagine a large percentage of readers read the title and call it a day.

Overall, I don't blame anybody for getting this forecast wrong. I mean the NHC had it wrong. Weather is still a very tough thing to predict, especially tropical weather. Unfortunately, the masses seem to not understand (nor care) how difficult weather forecasting is. I know pro mets are out there doing their best with the information in front of them.

[ROCK]

radar is filling in around the center now.... off to the races IMO.... Glad recon is in there.

[Anti-freeze]

I was reading something today about one of the dams north of Houston being in danger of failing. It seems like this is the last thing needed for that.

The emergency repairs prompted by issues found after the May derecho storms will be completed today/tonight:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GxyYNYjD3IM

[ScottNAtlanta]

I was reading something today about one of the dams north of Houston being in danger of failing. It seems like this is the last thing needed for that.

The emergency repairs prompted by issues found after the May derecho storms will be completed today/tonight:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GxyYNYjD3IM

This was what I had looked at earlier (engineering channel)


Link: https://youtube.com/watch?v=B1A74rguO-4

[jabman98]

Overall, I don't blame anybody for getting this forecast wrong. I mean the NHC had it wrong.

The ICON had it right! All hail King ICON! lol

[ScottNAtlanta]

Overall, I don't blame anybody for getting this forecast wrong. I mean the NHC had it wrong.

The ICON had it right! All hail King ICON! lol

Hopefully it's wrong on intensity

[ScottNAtlanta]

I think when/if the center clears out, this is going to have a very large eye.

[cane5]

Looks like it’s filling in around an eye trying to gain shape. The high is struggling to keep Beryl down. If this thing slows before scheduled landfall you could easily see a Cat 2.

[Kazmit]

[toad strangler]

Someone mentioned the NHC not getting this one correct. Does anyone know if the center of Beryl ever left their cone of error?

Anyway, good to see that this one is going to keep on moving. Hopefully that minimizes any significant effects with expected intensification as landfall approaches.

[ROCK]

I think when/if the center clears out, this is going to have a very large eye.

I think in a few hours we will have a will define eye on radar. Its almost wrapped fully around now...might clear out later this afternoon...JMO

vis and my eye 26.3N 95W...any one have the latest fix..being lazy..