ATL: BERYL - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[LadyBug72]

I seen a FB post from a pro met regarding dry air and Beryl not making it to Hurricane status. What are the chances of that? This storm is very intriguing to say the least.

[IcyTundra]

I seen a FB post from a pro met regarding dry air and Beryl not making it to Hurricane status. What are the chances of that? This storm is very intriguing to say the least.

It is possible but I certainly wouldn’t assume that. Prepare for the worse hope for the best.

[Anti-freeze]

Jeff Lindner's thoughts this morning. He's the long time weather go to guy for Harris County who'll you'll see on TV at county press conferences. A no bull, no ego type of guy who I have tremendous respect for:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AXwJE9HQNTE

[capNstorms]

I seen a FB post from a pro met regarding dry air and Beryl not making it to Hurricane status. What are the chances of that? This storm is very intriguing to say the least.

probably a pro at Facebook, not meteorology

[cheezyWXguy]

Looks like the N quadrant is reaching the final stages of walling off the dry air, cumulus clouds in the lower levels are bulking up. Pressure drops should resume once this eyewall can close off.

[OtherHD]

Someone mentioned the NHC not getting this one correct. Does anyone know if the center of Beryl ever left their cone of error?

I was just checking on this. Doesn't look like it has.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2024/B ... _with_line

It could be a good forecast if you consider 67% to be an appropriate benchmark. I wonder what 50% cone would look like.

[cane5]

Looks like it’s filling in around an eye trying to gain shape. The high is struggling to keep Beryl down. If this thing slows before scheduled landfall you could easily see a Cat 2.

ICON IS ALWAYS RIGHT !!!!!

[CypressMike]

I think mets get in trouble when they post on twitter. It's easy to let the thoughts drip out of the brain and onto a keyboard without much review. Then the rabid defense of a bad tweet causes even more issues.

I do agree though, as I always have, that criticizing mets for following all the tools we have doesn't work too well. We have to use modeling for storms, and you can't trust a single model much like you should not trust a single met. And to beat a dead horse, this is why one prepares prior to the season and simply executes on a plan when needed. I understand that there's a significant number of people who cannot just walk away when they think a storm might hit but instead are relying on the pros to force a move. This reinforces the need to plan ahead.

It's a bit distressing that our modeling tools, while they have improved, are still just not that good when it comes to reliable medium term forecasts for hurricanes.

I totally agree, and hope my earlier post didn't come across as bashing Matt, Eric, or SCW in general. I really like what those guys do, and I frequently recommend their site to my family and friends.

That said, it's ok to criticize them to a certain extent. There's a big difference between "bashing" and providing "critical feedback". I don't know Matt personally, but I converse with him on weather related topics through DM on X periodically. I've mentioned to him in the past that the certainty with which they communicate at times would bite them at some point. I also recommended that he stop bashing the so-called "fear mongers" on X whose posts show the more extreme outcomes. Doing so doesn't discourage them from doing it again in the future, and it only serves to throw more egg on your face when they get it right and you get it wrong. Just let your work speak for itself, and people will quickly figure out who gets it right most of the time.

I don't know if Matt is on here, but just in case, I love you bro! I think you understand where I'm coming from with this.

[Ralph's Weather]

Overall, I don't blame anybody for getting this forecast wrong. I mean the NHC had it wrong.

The ICON had it right! All hail King ICON! lol

The ICON has been great at forecasting anomalous events the last few years here in TX.

[toad strangler]

Someone mentioned the NHC not getting this one correct. Does anyone know if the center of Beryl ever left their cone of error?

I was just checking on this. Doesn't look like it has.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2024/B ... _with_line

It could be a good forecast if you consider 67% to be an appropriate benchmark. I wonder what 50% cone would look like.

Overall I feel the NHC has been doing a great job. Pretty much as usual. Especially in harping on how anomalous conditions were out ahead of Beryl early on E of the Windwards.

[Wampadawg]

Looks like it’s filling in around an eye trying to gain shape. The high is struggling to keep Beryl down. If this thing slows before scheduled landfall you could easily see a Cat 2.

ICON IS ALWAYS RIGHT !!!!!

Lol I don’t about always but certainly this time!
We should all hunker down with some fine German beer and ride it out.

[CypressMike]

Someone mentioned the NHC not getting this one correct. Does anyone know if the center of Beryl ever left their cone of error?

I was just checking on this. Doesn't look like it has.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2024/B ... _with_line

It could be a good forecast if you consider 67% to be an appropriate benchmark. I wonder what 50% cone would look like.

It would have to be a terribly bad forecast to actually leave the cone of error before the cone was updated! But yeah, the current path is taking Beryl over areas that were previously outside the cone of error.

[JayTX]

They've been fairly tight lipped about the damage it seems. If I lived below that dam with a lot of rain coming over the lakes watershed I would leave. I've seen similar types of repairs tried on smaller spillways and it didn't work for long.

The emergency repairs prompted by issues found after the May derecho storms will be completed today/tonight:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GxyYNYjD3IM

This was what I had looked at earlier (engineering channel)
https://youtu.be/B1A74rguO-4?si=VdZ07opN5puavTZ1

[copano]

Track has shifted a little right with latest update, showing Mad Island landfall, how fitting.

[tolakram]

Someone mentioned the NHC not getting this one correct. Does anyone know if the center of Beryl ever left their cone of error?

Anyway, good to see that this one is going to keep on moving. Hopefully that minimizes any significant effects with expected intensification as landfall approaches.

One could argue that landfall location, if we know where it landfalls, was in the cone Thursday. 4 days in the cone, on the edge of the cone. I can't find it but I believe the uncertainty radius went up this year. There's also a change to the graphics but it won't be implemented until August for some reason.

[crimi481]

It may stall - go NE and miss Texas?

[toad strangler]

Someone mentioned the NHC not getting this one correct. Does anyone know if the center of Beryl ever left their cone of error?

I was just checking on this. Doesn't look like it has.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2024/B ... _with_line

It could be a good forecast if you consider 67% to be an appropriate benchmark. I wonder what 50% cone would look like.

It would have to be a terribly bad forecast to actually leave the cone of error before the cone was updated! But yeah, the current path is taking Beryl over areas that were previously outside the cone of error.

That was my main question. I just heard differently. Obviously the cone is always shifting but did that center ever actually leave a previous release of the cone? I’m sure someone will track that in detail.

[chaser1]

New Discussion seems entirely reasonable.

023
WTNT42 KNHC 071448
TCDAT2

Tropical Storm Beryl Discussion Number 36
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022024
1000 AM CDT Sun Jul 07 2024

Beryl has become better organized this morning. Satellite images
show deep convection becoming more symmetric around the center, and
Brownsville radar has been showing an eyewall forming, although
still open on the northwest side. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane
Hunter aircraft recently reported maximum flight-level winds of 62
kt with the central pressure falling to 992 mb, so the initial wind
speed is raised to 55 kt.

Further intensification is likely as Beryl moves over very warm
waters within light shear conditions. Rapid intensification is a
distinct possibility if the core can become isolated from the dry
air that has been inhibiting intensification during the last day or
so. While there are no changes to the intensity forecast based on
the latest guidance, we are expecting Beryl to be intensifying up
until landfall early Monday, and people should be preparing for the
possibility of a category 2 hurricane landfall.

Beryl continues to move northwestward at 9 kt. The storm
should turn north-northwest this afternoon and make landfall
along the middle Texas coast early on Monday. The new forecast
is very close to the previous one, just a shade to the east. After
Beryl moves inland, the latest guidance still shows the system
accelerating farther northeastward and become a post-tropical
cyclone. This should bring the threat of flash flooding well into
Missouri.


Key Messages:

1. There is a danger of life-threatening storm surge inundation
along the coast of Texas from the north entrance to the Padre Island
National Seashore to Sabine Pass, including Matagorda Bay and
Galveston Bay. Residents in those areas should follow any advice
given by local officials and follow evacuation orders.

2. Beryl is forecast to bring damaging hurricane-force winds to
portions of the Texas coast tonight and early Monday. A Hurricane
Warning is in effect from Baffin Bay to San Luis Pass. Preparations
should be rushed to completion before tropical storm conditions
begin late today.

3. Flash and urban flooding, some of which may be locally
considerable, is expected across portions of the middle and upper
Texas Gulf Coast and eastern Texas today through Monday night.
River flooding is also expected.

4. Rip currents will cause life-threatening beach conditions through
Monday across much of the Gulf Coast. Beachgoers should heed warning
flags and the advice of lifeguards and local officials before
venturing into the water.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 07/1500Z 25.9N 95.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 08/0000Z 27.1N 95.7W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 08/1200Z 29.2N 96.2W 75 KT 85 MPH...INLAND
36H 09/0000Z 31.4N 95.7W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
48H 09/1200Z 33.6N 94.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
60H 10/0000Z 36.2N 91.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
72H 10/1200Z 38.6N 89.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
96H 11/1200Z 42.8N 83.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
120H 12/1200Z 46.0N 79.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND

$$
Forecaster Blake

[kassi]

"Pro mets in Houston are very confident that Beryl isn't much of a risk to Galveston"

oh have the tables have turned

SCW screwed up bad. About four days ago they said it may results in some rain and wrote it off. Even yesterday said impacts manageable and now this morning saying significant impacts with likely heavy power outages.

Big whiff

SETX mets took a big whiff as well, told everyone we were goooood and it was going to mexico/southern texas just before july 4th, no one is thinking about this storm, until now.....

When you say SETX, it could mean the Houston area or eastward. I remember you said you were in Beaumont so better to say the Beaumont area mets so everyone knows who you're talking about. Also, you can add your location to your profile. It's helpful to others when commenting.
Anyway, I'm in Beaumont too. Hope it's not too bad.

[KirbyDude25]

New VDM came out, 48-nm eye open on the northwest

610
URNT12 KNHC 071454
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL022024
A. 07/14:10:20Z
B. 25.84 deg N 094.99 deg W
C. 700 mb 3034 m
D. 993 mb
E. 060 deg 8 kt
F. OPEN NW
G. C48
H. 45 kt
I. 309 deg 75 nm 13:49:00Z
J. 034 deg 41 kt
K. 309 deg 75 nm 13:49:00Z
L. 45 kt
M. 051 deg 25 nm 14:17:30Z
N. 146 deg 58 kt
O. 050 deg 34 nm 14:20:00Z
P. 12 C / 3046 m
Q. 14 C / 3042 m
R. 8 C / NA
S. 1234 / 7
T. 0.02 / 2 nm
U. AF306 2802A BERYL OB 19
MAX FL WIND 58 KT 050 / 34 NM 14:20:00Z
MAX FL TEMP 15 C 294 / 9 NM FROM FL CNTR
;