ATL: BERYL - Models

[IcyTundra]

HWRF and HMON are too far south imo.

[Steve]

NAM 3km conus is what everyone will be talking about though

957 but with no change in track compared to other models? Odd one, that.

I was hoping for 890’s but not this time. Haha

[Craters]

What's the story with the ICON and rainfall totals? It seems to treat the ocean/land interface as a portal to a different dimension or something — or at least as some kind of rainfall discontinuity. Everything looks nice and copacetic until land is crossed, and then the previous totals somehow become irrelevant. The rules on land are apparently very different from those over water, and there seems to be little memory of what happened before that boundary was encountered.

[Wampadawg]

What's the story with the ICON and rainfall totals? It seems to treat the ocean/land interface as a portal to a different dimension or something — or at least as some kind of rainfall discontinuity. Everything looks nice and copacetic until land is crossed, and then the previous totals somehow become irrelevant. The rules on land are apparently very different from those over water, and there seems to be little memory of what happened before that boundary was encountered.

Icon is tapping out LOL tired from Leading the Pack all Hail King Icon

[IcyTundra]

King ICON it was by far the closest to getting the track right.

[ROCK]

not much more to say about the models this far out only to see what verifies in these next few runs before touchdown.....I think even the NAV handled this better but only out of luck..lol....the rest of the Globals have been playing catch up for days.

[crimi481]

It may stall - go NE - miss Texas?

[tolakram]

It may stall - go NE - miss Texas?

No one can answer this. The model thread has pretty much wrapped up, it's in radar range, as Rock said, and it will go where it will go.

[Steve]

I should have done it yesterday when Saturday’s information was still available. I only went back to Tuesday 12z. Oldest run of ICON on Tidbits is last Sunday 12z. So literally a week ago while this is still available, you can see how good that model really was.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 012&fh=168

[LarryWx]

I should have done it yesterday when Saturday’s information was still available. I only went back to Tuesday 12z. Oldest run of ICON on Tidbits is last Sunday 12z. So literally a week ago while this is still available, you can see how good that model really was.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 012&fh=168

Per my old posts, this 12Z of past Sunday (6/30) is the oldest ICON run going into the upper TX coast. Interestingly, the 12Z 6/30 JMA was actually similar! I often criticize the JMA as not being a good model, but some of the runs early last week starting with 12Z of 6/30 were similar to the ICON. So kudos to both.

[tolakram]

I should have done it yesterday when Saturday’s information was still available. I only went back to Tuesday 12z. Oldest run of ICON on Tidbits is last Sunday 12z. So literally a week ago while this is still available, you can see how good that model really was.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 012&fh=168

Per my old posts, this 12Z of past Sunday (6/30) is the oldest ICON run going into the upper TX coast. Interestingly, the 12Z 6/30 JMA was actually similar! I often criticize the JMA as not being a good model, but some of the runs early last week starting with 12Z of 6/30 were similar to the ICON. So kudos to both.

I think we have a saved image but here's another one.

[tolakram]

Hiding this in here.

I use total cloud fraction to determine if I move my telescope out to take pictures. NAM 3 and FV3 high res have been the most reliable. I thought this was interesting, but no real surprises.

NAM shows an eye, FV3 slop

[mpic]

Whoever the person is that tweaks and updates modeling software for ICON is celebrating right now and has every reason to do so.

[Tekken_Guy]

Hiding this in here.

I use total cloud fraction to determine if I move my telescope out to take pictures. NAM 3 and FV3 high res have been the most reliable. I thought this was interesting, but no real surprises.

NAM shows an eye, FV3 slop

https://i.imgur.com/BuGaBBM.png

https://i.imgur.com/mQ8zj8Z.png

Isn’t the NAM-3K infamous for turning every Gulf Coast storm into a monster C5?

[aspen]

12z HWRF initializes well, but somehow gets Beryl to a 960mb/100 kt major at landfall. I’m very doubtful it intensifies that fast.

[IcyTundra]

12z HWRF initializes well, but somehow gets Beryl to a 960mb/100 kt major at landfall. I’m very doubtful it intensifies that fast.

I sure hope not. I'm thinking cat 2 is still very much on the table but a strong cat 1 between 85-95 mph is the most likely outcome.

[Steve]

Hiding this in here.

I use total cloud fraction to determine if I move my telescope out to take pictures. NAM 3 and FV3 high res have been the most reliable. I thought this was interesting, but no real surprises.

NAM shows an eye, FV3 slop

https://i.imgur.com/BuGaBBM.png

https://i.imgur.com/mQ8zj8Z.png

Isn’t the NAM-3K infamous for turning every Gulf Coast storm into a monster C5?

It takes it to 927 so it’s trying hard.

[cycloneye]

 https://x.com/webberweather/status/1810026640749048022

[cutterwx]

 https://x.com/webberweather/status/1810026640749048022

It is interesting how interpretations can vary, amongst equally trained Meteorologists. It's just the nature of... nature. That being said, the HWRF is likely overdoing intensity a bit.

 https://twitter.com/yconsor/status/1810025512787701967

[tolakram]

For short term verification, here's the hurricane models. HWRF strongest and also slowest to landfall.