ATL: BERYL - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[bbadon]

Viewing the mid level water vapor imagery it looks like the dry air surrounding Beryl is moistening rather quickly now. I suspect we will a different looking storm in the next hour or two.

[GCANE]

High helicity tower rotating CCW around the CoC and to the west of the CoC
Large tower 180-degrees opposite on the east side of the CoC

[cheezyWXguy]

On the IR view you can see that there is some new convection wrapping around the north side trying to close the center

It’s time to start looking at radar as well. Updrafts start at the surface and their movement generally lags with height, so by looking at radar, you can actually see what’s going on internally a little earlier than you can with satellite imagery which is displaying cloud tops.

Radar currently shows concentrated bands forming closer to the center than earlier. This isn’t a classic case of watching a solidly established eyewall contract. Instead, it’s more like a spiral band setting up, and then a subsequent band setting up inside of that, until a true eyewall is ultimately established. Does this result in faster intensification? That I don’t know.

[LSU Saint]

Outer band is about to hit me in Houston. Here’s to the start of it

[SecondBreakfast]

The remnants causing a firehose of moisture and flash flooding is what I am watching for in the NE.

https://x.com/nycstormchaser/status/180 ... wl1m0Dnbtg

Is this an actual scenario?

Unlikely

I dislike using absolutes as well, but in this situation there is no chance of this stalling or not landfalling in Texas. Taking a step back and looking at the bigger picture, below is an outline of the current steering mechanisms with WV imagery (which we can depict based on our upper-level flow). Orange outlines our ridge, set by the high pressure off the NE coast and currently being pinched by the ULL off the East Coast. The pacific ridge is currently extending down towards Mexico. Our trough over the Midwest (blue) extends all the way down towards Oklahoma and is creating the break in the ridge that will steer Beryl to the north. While wobbles will play a role here, I've outlined two potential tracks in yellow; (1) the western edge (likely a weak storm will take this track) and (2) the more eastern edge (a stronger storm):
https://i.imgur.com/EJMI2lz.png

Animated loop:
https://i.ibb.co/ZGqg4gZ/goes16-wv-mid-us.gif

If we analyze the upper-level flow at 250mb on the GFS for 2PM ET today, we can again see the eastern edge extension of the ridge (which will ensure Beryl makes landfalling in Texas) in orange. I've also outlined the upper-level jetstream here, which will (1) help ventilate Beryl as it approaches the coastline and (2) cause Beryl to move towards the NE after it makes landfall. If there is a 'stall' per se, it will be the remains of Beryl after it reaches up in the Great Lakes region and a blocking high emerges:
https://i.imgur.com/tuh3YH3.png

[MGC]

Looks like Beryl is about to take off. Convection starting to pop near the center, little shear and dry air entrainment just about mixed out. Should see constant intensification until landfall.....MGC

[GCANE]

East Tower 38dBZ - very strong

[ROCK]

Recon almost back out to storm.. should be lower pressure. Guessing 985…

[GCANE]

This maybe Cat1 just after sunset

[GCANE]

 https://x.com/INFJLOVE/status/1809991803589853582

[mpic]

My eyes see a N movement on radar and satellite. NHC says NW still and I’m not seeing that.

It Wii’s likely make landfall on TX/ LA border midday on Monday. After a. Stall the direction usually go’s more N then NE.

And a lot of predictions with no disclaimer. I direct a lot of people to the forum because of the high number of Pros here and I'm going to stop doing it or at least explain to them better not to believe a random poster. "John Doe" in Houston has way to many people now who believe (or hear) what they want they want to and either are too lazy or too busy to research for themselves. That's on them, but making baseless statements and /or opinions with no disclaimer is irresponsible.

This is not going to Louisiana there sure is a lot of -removed- with this storm for some reason.

[Charleswachal]

I am located in SW Houston, getting heavy rain right now. Already some decent wind gusts in this band.

[DukeMu]

Is this an actual scenario?

Unlikely

I dislike using absolutes as well, but in this situation there is no chance of this stalling or not landfalling in Texas. Taking a step back and looking at the bigger picture, below is an outline of the current steering mechanisms with WV imagery (which we can depict based on our upper-level flow). Orange outlines our ridge, set by the high pressure off the NE coast and currently being pinched by the ULL off the East Coast. The pacific ridge is currently extending down towards Mexico. Our trough over the Midwest (blue) extends all the way down towards Oklahoma and is creating the break in the ridge that will steer Beryl to the north. While wobbles will play a role here, I've outlined two potential tracks in yellow; (1) the western edge (likely a weak storm will take this track) and (2) the more eastern edge (a stronger storm):
https://i.imgur.com/EJMI2lz.png

Animated loop:
https://i.ibb.co/ZGqg4gZ/goes16-wv-mid-us.gif

If we analyze the upper-level flow at 250mb on the GFS for 2PM ET today, we can again see the eastern edge extension of the ridge (which will ensure Beryl makes landfalling in Texas) in orange. I've also outlined the upper-level jetstream here, which will (1) help ventilate Beryl as it approaches the coastline and (2) cause Beryl to move towards the NE after it makes landfall. If there is a 'stall' per se, it will be the remains of Beryl after it reaches up in the Great Lakes region and a blocking high emerges:
https://i.imgur.com/tuh3YH3.png

Yeah, this is a dead giveaway set up. More like late August or early September.

[DukeMu]

I am located in SW Houston, getting heavy rain right now. Already some decent wind gusts in this band.

That's a nasty outer band. Stay safe!

[capNstorms]

just got some of it here in Beaumont, just a little taste of what's to come

[jabman98]

First rainband mostly through. Not too bad so far. It looked like it might be worse on the radar. But I know more is coming...

[Tireman4]

I am located in SW Houston, getting heavy rain right now. Already some decent wind gusts in this band.

That's a nasty outer band. Stay safe!

https://radar.weather.gov/ridge/standard/KHGX_loop.gif?refreshed=1720371176696

Just rolling through Humble now. A hint of events to come

[LSU Saint]

I am located in SW Houston, getting heavy rain right now. Already some decent wind gusts in this band.

It’s pouring right now. Lots of thunder and wind

[Steve]

Not bagging on anyone’s opinion of television mets. All have made good points pro and con. Best point made was for them not to speak in absolutes. I realize that everyone has brands and egos these days (real life and on social media). But everyone wants to have been first to say this or that for later credit. Objectivity is the best approach over sensationalizing or underselling. Anyone putting out their opinions should be fair game for respectful critique. JMO

Meanwhile Beryl ia spiraling inward. Blow up NE could slightly tug the center toward it.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/sat ... product=ir

[chaser1]

SCW screwed up bad. About four days ago they said it may results in some rain and wrote it off. Even yesterday said impacts manageable and now this morning saying significant impacts with likely heavy power outages.

Big whiff

SETX mets took a big whiff as well, told everyone we were goooood and it was going to mexico/southern texas just before july 4th, no one is thinking about this storm, until now.....

I don't think we need this crap on the forums. This shouldnt be a place to criticize professional mets who have to balance public opinion and public awareness. 4 days ago it looked like the storm was going to tampico, there is no reason to start talking about a galveston landfall. That unnecessarily frightens people. You guys are making "forecasts" with hindsight 2020 as if it were obvious where the storm was going to go.

Many people here also have no risk whatsoever by just throwing out calls. Sure sometimes you get it right when you just check darts randomly at the dartboard.

I agree with Isabela. As with football, "that's why we play the game". If a storm track and/or intensity were a predetermined fact, there'd be no need for the NHC, forecasting in general, or this forum for that matter. That is not to say that many of those who live further north along the Texas coast don't have a legit issue or concern, but that gripe seems to reflect "the messaging" by one or more local MET's. NHC typically does an outstanding forecasting job and if anything may have overwarned on a few occasions. Perhaps a constructive (non- bashing) separate Forum thread should be created to move this topic to.

We now return to our regularly scheduled Beryl programming