ATL: BERYL - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Charleswachal]

Got about .4 inches of rain in that band. Heavy rain for about 20 minutes.... ready for the next band once it forms.

Center is looking much more robust.

[GCANE]

Eye looks to be closed off now on radar

[Hurricane Mike]

Afternoon video update on Beryl for anyone interested
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ddSzg33YsLk

[cheezyWXguy]

On the IR view you can see that there is some new convection wrapping around the north side trying to close the center

It’s time to start looking at radar as well. Updrafts start at the surface and their movement generally lags with height, so by looking at radar, you can actually see what’s going on internally a little earlier than you can with satellite imagery which is displaying cloud tops.

Radar currently shows concentrated bands forming closer to the center than earlier. This isn’t a classic case of watching a solidly established eyewall contract. Instead, it’s more like a spiral band setting up, and then a subsequent band setting up inside of that, until a true eyewall is ultimately established. Does this result in faster intensification? That I don’t know.

Visible satellite now pretty clearly shows what I was talking about in my second paragraph. 3 concentric bands visible on the southern side of the storm. If the innermost band establishes as the eyewall, it will most likely only be about 20nm wide.

[Nederlander]

I don't think we need this crap on the forums. This shouldnt be a place to criticize professional mets who have to balance public opinion and public awareness. 4 days ago it looked like the storm was going to tampico, there is no reason to start talking about a galveston landfall. That unnecessarily frightens people. You guys are making "forecasts" with hindsight 2020 as if it were obvious where the storm was going to go.

Many people here also have no risk whatsoever by just throwing out calls. Sure sometimes you get it right when you just check darts randomly at the dartboard.

Some criticism is fair and warranted. There’s way too much model hugging and not enough old fashioned meteorology. The problem is that there were signs fairly early on that some models were picking up on (namely the ICON, Navy, and JWA) that the ridge could break down, but the typical favorite models weren’t giving into that.

The other problem is when Mets (and the general public) use definitive statements instead of probabilities.

There’s no way to sugarcoat this one. This was a rather big miss for models and also some mets who were convinced this was a Mexico issue.

[GCANE]

Based on radar, I estimate CoC at 26.3N 95.2W
Slightly east of forecast track

[GCANE]

 https://x.com/subq/status/1810003204265906266

[Hypercane_Kyle]

We're probably in for a night of some borderline rapid intensification. Fortunately, the limit to how far Beryl can wind back up is greatly limited by its time over water. I am going with an aggressive 95 knots before landfall, more-or-less in-line with the latest HWRF.

[Charleswachal]

She is still having trouble actually closing the eyewall. Everytime we get storms forming they quickly weaken around the center. This could stop the intensification for a while.

[mpic]

Rain band just coming in at Splendora,.north of Houston. Big thunderboomers, very little wind and lots of rain.

[capNstorms]

I don't think we need this crap on the forums. This shouldnt be a place to criticize professional mets who have to balance public opinion and public awareness. 4 days ago it looked like the storm was going to tampico, there is no reason to start talking about a galveston landfall. That unnecessarily frightens people. You guys are making "forecasts" with hindsight 2020 as if it were obvious where the storm was going to go.

Many people here also have no risk whatsoever by just throwing out calls. Sure sometimes you get it right when you just check darts randomly at the dartboard.

Some criticism is fair and warranted. There’s way too much model hugging and not enough old fashioned meteorology. The problem is that there were signs fairly early on that some models were picking up on (namely the ICON, Navy, and JWA) that the ridge could break down, but the typical favorite models weren’t giving into that.

The other problem is when Mets (and the general public) use definitive statements instead of probabilities.

There’s no way to sugarcoat this one. This was a rather big miss for models and also some mets who were convinced this was a Mexico issue.

Ditto

[Frank P]

Appears to me via sat and radar images that eye is trying to tighten up, if so, come Watson, the games is afoot.

[cheezyWXguy]

She is still having trouble actually closing the eyewall. Everytime we get storms forming they quickly weaken around the center. This could stop the intensification for a while.

There’s still that pocket in the ne quad, but it’s steadily mixing out. To put into context what we’re seeing, this was a barren low level circulation about 8 hours ago. Now we’re trying to see when it will close off an eyewall. Pretty impressive organizational trends imo.

[KirbyDude25]

Recon has found the center around 26.20°N, 95.36°W. Unfortunately MSLP isn't being recorded, we'll need to wait a bit for a dropsonde

[Charleswachal]

recon does not have any extrapolated pressure so its going to be interesting what the dropsondes do

[Texashawk]

Recon has found the center around 26.20°N, 95.36°W. Unfortunately MSLP isn't being recorded, we'll need to wait a bit for a dropsonde

Seems like the planes are having more issues than usual

[IcyTundra]

1PM intermediate advisory NHC is saying movement is NNW now. Position is at 26.3N 95.3W

[canebeard]

1979, Cat 5 Hurricane David (926 mb) hit Hispanola, and came off the island and headed for Florida. Organization looked excellent, outflow excellent, and hurricane warnings went up for S. and central Florida, and steady intensification forecast repeatedly until landfall. Two+ days later the highest winds recorded on land were at Ft. Pierce, were only 70 mph sustained. Point, looked great, Labor Day weekend, hot ocean, but not much re-intensification occurred to everyone's surprise,.

[ROCK]

1PM intermediate advisory NHC is saying movement is NNW now. Position is at 26.3N 95.3W

It’s feeling the trof as it deepens. This was expected.

[StormPyrate]

Wonder if they deployed any of the surface drone boats on this storm?