ATL: BERYL - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Sunnydays]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jufx11mHGbU

Live chaser in Sargent, Tx.

[eastcoastFL]

She has linked up with the EPAC juice.
Small feed flowing thru the IoT.
The lower Beryl's pressure goes, the more she will entrain that.

https://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/ ... latest.gif

Hey GCane, good to see ya. Do you see any tornado threats for the western gulf coast tonight?

Much thanks eastcoastFL.
There is a small amount of helicity right now on the coast. Looks like nothing to worry about yet.
A larger pocket of helicity in associated with that large area of heavy convection just north of Beryl's CoC.
That maybe of real concern when that gets to the coast and land friction effects kick in.

Thank you! I hope everyone in the path has their phones charged and the volume cranked up. These middle of the night hurricanes even if they are a low grade CAT 1 or TS can throw some tornadoes at you quick. People want to be ready to head for the safe room quick if they’re sleeping. It gets annoying sometimes when those alerts go off all night but you don’t want to ignore them.

[GCANE]

Traditionally, a large pocket of high CAPE air sits over the water just offshore of Houston.
Its still there and Beryl will plow straight into it.
This is where the probability is high Beryl will be strengthening on approach possibly right up to landfall.

[South Texas Storms]

I'm expecting widespread 60-70 mph wind gusts for the Houston metro area tomorrow morning. Enough to cause widespread power outages, especially on the west side which could see gusts reach up to 80 mph.

[eastcoastFL]

The center of Beryl is moving right over this buoy right now. Pressure just plummeted, waves are 14ft, and water temp here is 86.5F! This one has a camera that is still updating regularly so you can see what’s going on in the gulf right now inside the storm.

https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page. ... tion=42020

[Kazmit]

Looking less anemic now. Dry air at the center is gone.

[GCANE]

CAPE ridge offshore Houston currently at 4000.
Watching this one with a microscope.

[eastcoastFL]

I'm expecting widespread 60-70 mph wind gusts for the Houston metro area tomorrow morning. Enough to cause widespread power outages, especially on the west side which could see gusts reach up to 80 mph.

I was just looking at one of the forecasts on zoom earth for Houston showing potential gusts of 92mph around 11am. If that verified power will be an issue for a lot of people. Do you know if it will continue with the same forward speed?

[Tireman4]

I'm expecting widespread 60-70 mph wind gusts for the Houston metro area tomorrow morning. Enough to cause widespread power outages, especially on the west side which could see gusts reach up to 80 mph.

Mr. Storms

Thank you for your participation on this board. I realize you take time out of your busy schedule to help. To you and all of the pro Mets that contribute on this board, a huge thank you. Especially now.

[Tireman4]

CAPE ridge offshore Houston currently at 4000.
Watching this one with a microscope.

Yep, the dynamics are definitely there. Must be watched very carefully

[GCANE]

Beryl in the clear, no PVS, shear or UL effects to disrupt her.
https://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/ ... g8vor1.GIF

[aspen]

Beryl in the clear, no PVS, shear or UL effects to disrupt her.
https://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/ ... g8vor1.GIF

Still seems to be trying to mix out dry air, though. If it wasn’t for that then I’d agree it’s all systems go.

[UTSARoadrunner4]

UTSARoadRunner4 annoyance? No we are taking it extremely seriously, their could be some real power outage problems coming out of this and wind damage, especially where the core moves on shore, its not an inconvenience like a typical afternoon strong thunderstorm

I think you might’ve misunderstood me when I said annoyance.

Flooding from late April to early May, then the Derecho, then more rain from Alberto, now Beryl. Back to back to back to back. That’s annoying.

I’m not sure how me saying Beryl is an annoyance means y’all aren’t taking Beryl serious. Not even sure about the correlation between “annoyance” and “not taking it seriously”.

[Odeseus]

Looking much healthier. Still hoping there’s something we’re missing that will hold her back tonight.

I’ll be headed to bed shortly as I have a 6am flight out of Chicago in the morning. Hoping against hope that when I get up at 2am, I’m still looking at a tropical storm. I have a bunch of friends and family that will be affected no matter how strong or weak she is.

[LSU Saint]

My accuweather app currently tells me to expect 73 MPH peak sustained winds and 80 MPH peak wind gust. 8-12 inches of rain

[GCANE]

Beryl in the clear, no PVS, shear or UL effects to disrupt her.
https://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/ ... g8vor1.GIF

Still seems to be trying to mix out dry air, though. If it wasn’t for that then I’d agree it’s all systems go.

'Check this latest eyedrop

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/recon/r ... 7-2143.png

[GCANE]

That eyewall hot tower is really zipping along

[al78]

My accuweather app currently tells me to expect 73 MPH peak sustained winds and 80 MPH peak wind gust. 8-12 inches of rain

That seems a very low gust factor, is that normal for tropical cyclones?

[Frank P]

My 2 cents
Let’s say worst case scenario with Beryl having 15 hours left before landfall, and if she were to continue to drop 1 mb per hour she could get down to 971 mb from her current 986mb . That’s Cat 2 pressure, only question would be does the winds have enough time to catch up. But at the minimum it would most likely bring in a Cat 2 surge. She really has some good atmospheric conditions now to continue to strengthen so I would think it’s not totally out of the realm of being possible. Whether or not it happen remains to be seen. My humble opinion only

[Tireman4]

My accuweather app currently tells me to expect 73 MPH peak sustained winds and 80 MPH peak wind gust. 8-12 inches of rain

I would use the HGX folks first. Sometimes AccuWeather is computer driven with no human input. The website has much of what you need to know.