ATL: BERYL - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[GCANE]

CAPE ridge now slightly east of Houston. Up to 4500

[StormPyrate]

My accuweather app currently tells me to expect 73 MPH peak sustained winds and 80 MPH peak wind gust. 8-12 inches of rain

I would use the HGX folks first. Sometimes AccuWeather is computer driven with no human input. The website has much of what you need to know.

Dont most of these consumer apps just use one or other of the big models?

[GCANE]

Helicity increasing NE of the core. Up to 200.

[GCANE]

Massive updraft anticyclone has now developed directly over Beryl.

[ronjon]

Beryl in the clear, no PVS, shear or UL effects to disrupt her.
https://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/ ... g8vor1.GIF

Still seems to be trying to mix out dry air, though. If it wasn’t for that then I’d agree it’s all systems go.

'Check this latest eyedrop

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/recon/r ... 7-2143.png

Looks like Beryls near hurricane strength based on that data.

[GCANE]

2500 CAPE in the core

[InfernoFlameCat]

The proto eye on radar looks like its trying to close off a much smaller eye. It is also looking very healthy on radar with only the southwest part still open.

[GCANE]

Miss Piggy extrap 985.5mb

[ronjon]

TWC just reported latest pressure down to 985 mb.

[AtlanticWind]

Down to 986 from recon , winds should catch up soon
Pretty certain this will be a hurricane shortly
Has a chance of reaching Cat 2 still

[Woofde]

The proto eye on radar looks like its trying to close off a much smaller eye. It is also looking very healthy on radar with only the southwest part still open.

Yeah, it's finally formed a good looking structure. Only caveat is that the SW band is looking a little thin. I'm expecting pressure to start dropping real quickly soon. This is likely going to be one of those "if it had another 24 hours..." storms. Hurricane models show this quite well.

[GCANE]

Watching that convection moving north off the west coast of the Yucatan.
If this links up with Beryl, she'll be drinking from the fire hose.

https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=r ... =undefined

[cheezyWXguy]

Mesovorts becoming apparent on radar. Open to the sw but should close soon. Recon FL winds clearly show peak winds concentrating around the core.

[LadyBug72]

As someone who is going to feel affects of whatever Beryl brings and who has family in her direct path, can we PLEASE stop bickering about the he said/she said so we can get the updates/facts/forecasts. Thank you!

[Tireman4]

My accuweather app currently tells me to expect 73 MPH peak sustained winds and 80 MPH peak wind gust. 8-12 inches of rain

I would use the HGX folks first. Sometimes AccuWeather is computer driven with no human input. The website has much of what you need to know.

Right, but AccuWeather is notorious for having wild swings with their forecasts

Dont most of these consumer apps just use one or other of the big models?

[GCANE]

Miss Piggy VDM 988mb

[GCANE]

Miss Piggy VDM 988mb

I think she dropped in a bad location.
Never could trust a pig.

[Charleswachal]

Miss Piggy VDM 988mb

doesnt exactly make sense

[GCANE]

AF301 also drops 988mb

[InfernoFlameCat]

Eyewall seems to rapidly be closing off. This thing could really take off.