ATL: BERYL - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[IcyTundra]

Now up to 70 MPH according to the NHC

[tolakram]

saved loop

[PavelGaborik10]

Doubtful it hits cat 2 but a mid range 1 seems like a safe bet.

[DucaCane]

Last fix moving almost due North…watch for the turn NNE as it deepens and feels the trof..unless that was just a wobble…lol

Likely a wobble. Longer term motion is NNW to NW

Radar looks a little east of north.

[Charleswachal]

saved loop
https://i.imgur.com/cKJ0ecF.gif

certainly doesnt look like something about to go through rapid intensification

[LadyBug72]

Learning question here…does her moving NW or N make a difference with landfall since she is within hours of making landfall?

[ConvergenceZone]

I still think it will make landfall as a 75 mph or 80 mph hurricane, but that's probably about it.

[ronjon]

Long range RAD showing convection almost completely closing off around COC. 987 mb 70 mph winds latest 7 pm update from NHC.

[wx98]

Last fix moving almost due North…watch for the turn NNE as it deepens and feels the trof..unless that was just a wobble…lol

Likely a wobble. Longer term motion is NNW to NW

Radar looks a little east of north.

Look at longer term motion, not short term wobbles. I’ve been comparing to a physical point for over 3 hours now.

[ROCK]

Last fix moving almost due North…watch for the turn NNE as it deepens and feels the trof..unless that was just a wobble…lol

Likely a wobble. Longer term motion is NNW to NW

Radar looks a little east of north.

We will see what the next fix is..as this deepens it feels that trof draped over Tx thus the bend to the NE. Already feeling it in some respects.

[wx98]

Learning question here…does her moving NW or N make a difference with landfall since she is within hours of making landfall?

Just a difference as far as exact landfall point. Wobbles can shift landfall by 10-20 miles sometimes

[otowntiger]

saved loop
https://i.imgur.com/cKJ0ecF.gif

certainly doesnt look like something about to go through rapid intensification

Agreed. Certainly no RI yet. Low end cat 1 is the best bet now in my opinion- hopefully that’s all they get.

[MEANINGLESS_NUMBERS]

AF301 VDM
Eye circular, 50nm, open SW

That is a massive eye. I suspect it will shrink considerably as the system intensifies.

Won’t really have a chance. Only a few hours until land at this point and every indication it will stay pretty sloppy the whole way through.

[JabNOLA]

I’ve seen the movie before. The storm is oriented sw to ne. Look for landfall Galveston to High Island or a bit east. My thoughts only.

[ROCK]

Recon heading in for another fix and drop….

[capNstorms]

definitely look like its making a poleward shift last few frames, to answer anyone if that changes things, yes it does... also changes location of landfall.

[capNstorms]

I’ve seen the movie before. The storm is oriented sw to ne. Look for landfall Galveston to High Island or a bit east. My thoughts only.

ive been saying once it starts to deepen its going to shift... i bet this is the beginning?

[skyline385]

There is a very clear NNE wobble over the last hour, how much it affects track remains to be seen

[Marrkkk]

In Victoria, will update tonight. Thankfully a near miss. Sad I said Houston 1 week ago. South of us and Central Tex would have been welcomed. No winds for anyone!

[Raider Power]

There is a heck of a lot of loose branches and patched together fences on the west side of Houston, along with just repaired high tension electrical. Tons of dead branches that have not yet been removed from trees after the derecho that rolled through here a few weeks ago. There are also a lot of trees that I suspect would not need much to go over tonight. Liable to get real messy tonight out here.


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