ATL: BERYL - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[IcyTundra]

can the force of it wrapping its core around the back side drive it at all?

Recon is in the storm so they should be able to tell us which direction it’s currently heading. I’m looking at radar but it’s hard to tell.

Edit: found a better radar link and it still appears to be NNW. I think the eye is deceiving right now making it appear to be heading N or NNE but if you look at the whole store it still appears to be moving NNW.

Yes, I’ve been tracking it for over 4 hours and it’s still NNW to NW.

Movement is NNW per the NHC definitely more of a northward component right now.

[tolakram]

Now we watch IR to see if what appears to be a building eyewall continues.



source: https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=meso-meso1-13-48-0-50-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined

[LarryWx]

983 mb...not bad Beryl.

Raw data was 983.5 mb
Official data is 988 mb per posted on RECON map
Sorry

I saw a 983.7 recon extrapolated during the last hour, which was suggesting a slow drop. Is the 988 from a later dropsonde? If so, then it hasn’t been dropping recently.

[cheezyWXguy]

983 mb...not bad Beryl.

Raw data was 983.5 mb
Official data is 988 mb per posted on RECON map
Sorry

I saw a 983.7 recon extrapolated during the last hour, which was suggesting a slow drop. Is the 988 from a later dropsonde? If so, then it hasn’t been dropping recently.

The drop found 12kt and 988mb, good for 987mb. 1mb drop from the last one, which had 4kt and 988mb

[GCANE]

Update from CIMSS
Shear has picked up to 17 knots

[AtlanticWind]

Time is running out for strengthening
I think Cat 1 is probably it’s ceiling at this point.

[Nuno]

I don't really see any western component atm.

[GCANE]

CAPE ridge has dropped to 3500

[Sciencerocks]

[GCANE]

Big towers opposite sides of the CoC

[MEANINGLESS_NUMBERS]

Time is running out for strengthening
I think Cat 1 is probably it’s ceiling at this point.

Around 12 hours left. Anything more than Cat 1 would require RI and that really doesn’t seem likely given the pace thus far.

[otowntiger]

I don't really see any western component atm.

Also no strengthening, it appears. That’s good if this thing is headed a bit further up the coast and closer to Houston metro area.

[ElectricStorm]

Highest FL wind so far, but SFMR still only around 55kts. Looks on track to be around 65-70kts at landfall IMO

[AtlanticWind]

Lucky that the western gulf wasn’t real conducive for Beryl
at this time.

[hipshot]

https://i.imgur.com/n5dBPaM.gif

To my untrained eye, that image appears to show Beryl getting weaker but WDIK!

[ElectricStorm]

Eye drop supports 988mb. No drop since last pass

[NDG]

As if it is heading straight for Houston if the current heading it has taken during the past few hours doesn't change.

[Nimbus]

I don't really see any western component atm.

Also no strengthening, it appears. That’s good if this thing is headed a bit further up the coast and closer to Houston metro area.

The central vortex pressure drop is only from 1005 MB to 986 MB so it doesn't have a lot of suck ATM.
As long as it doesn't slow down or drift NNE delaying landfall shouldn't be too bad other than power outages and the usual flooding.

[mpic]

Getting several short rain bands coming through over the last 20 minutes or so north of Houston/south of Conroe.

[skyline385]

Recon is in the storm so they should be able to tell us which direction it’s currently heading. I’m looking at radar but it’s hard to tell.

Edit: found a better radar link and it still appears to be NNW. I think the eye is deceiving right now making it appear to be heading N or NNE but if you look at the whole store it still appears to be moving NNW.

Yes, I’ve been tracking it for over 4 hours and it’s still NNW to NW.

Both recon fixed a movement almost due north

[url]https://i.postimg.cc/mgxQfgRr/image.png [/url]

[url]https://i.postimg.cc/dtZ8xTbX/image.png [/url]

And now a NNE fix. Its been moving N to NNE for a while and likely going to bring it much closer to Houston than models thought. Luckily this isn't intensifying as much as hurricane models expected at the moment.