2024 ENSO Updates

[cycloneye]

There is consensus among the ENSO models in the June update for Cool Neutral to Weak La Niña.

https://iri.columbia.edu/our-expertise/ ... -sst_table

[LarryWx]

3.4 anoms have warmed 0.4 the last week to ~+0.4 meaning RONI has likely risen from~-0.5/-0.6 to ~-0.1/-0.2.

[Blown Away]

3.4 anoms have warmed 0.4 the last week to ~+0.4 meaning RONI has likely risen from~-0.5/-0.6 to ~-0.1/-0.2.

Larry,
What years had Cool/Neutral to weak Nina transition in ASO?? Any correlation with those years and hurricane landfalls?

[cycloneye]

 https://x.com/TylerJStanfield/status/1805295630417285453

[LarryWx]

3.4 anoms have warmed 0.4 the last week to ~+0.4 meaning RONI has likely risen from~-0.5/-0.6 to ~-0.1/-0.2.

Larry,
What years had Cool/Neutral to weak Nina transition in ASO?? Any correlation with those years and hurricane landfalls?

Good question but I haven’t analyzed that specifically. I’ve found that when one requires too specific a scenario that the number of analogs often drops so much that the sample size is too small. All I can say from earlier research and also from looking at those track density maps that were posted is that weak La Niña in ASO seems to be more dangerous than either cold neutral or stronger La Niña. And I’d probably defer to RONI over ONI these days.

[cycloneye]

Niño 3.4 at +0.3C on the weekly CPC update.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ ... ts-web.pdf

[Ntxw]

The readings are kind of high for oncoming La Nina still. There is likely a higher base of a warmer tropical ocean, in context in the past this might be per say 0 to -0.3 or something. It can still get there, as Ninas sometimes can quickly cool the readings in the span of month or two. Compared to the discussion of potential very strong Nina is probably not likely now. Overall NHEM and global ACE is still down.

Not sure if false readings, but lately there's been a strange pool at shallow depths of warmth in the east.

[Kingarabian]

The readings are kind of high for oncoming La Nina still. There is likely a higher base of a warmer tropical ocean, in context in the past this might be per say 0 to -0.3 or something. It can still get there, as Ninas sometimes can quickly cool the readings in the span of month or two. Compared to the discussion of potential very strong Nina is probably not likely now. Overall NHEM and global ACE is still down.

Not sure if false readings, but lately there's been a strange pool at shallow depths of warmth in the east.

https://i.imgur.com/ZZRkUHe.png

I think some of us including myself were originally skeptical in regards to a strong La Nina by ASO.

Weird discrepancy between the Buoys and PENTAD in regards to the subsurface. Former doesn't look encouraging for La Nina but the latter supports it. 30/90 Day SOI also is not currently supporting La Nina. Which is pretty bad since we're entering July next week. Still seems normal since we're coming off a borderline super Nino.

July trades once they get going should do the job in forcing cool neutral.

[LarryWx]

The readings are kind of high for oncoming La Nina still. There is likely a higher base of a warmer tropical ocean, in context in the past this might be per say 0 to -0.3 or something. It can still get there, as Ninas sometimes can quickly cool the readings in the span of month or two. Compared to the discussion of potential very strong Nina is probably not likely now. Overall NHEM and global ACE is still down.

Not sure if false readings, but lately there's been a strange pool at shallow depths of warmth in the east.

https://i.imgur.com/ZZRkUHe.png

I think some of us including myself were originally skeptical in regards to a strong La Nina by ASO.

Weird discrepancy between the Buoys and PENTAD in regards to the subsurface. Former doesn't look encouraging for La Nina but the latter supports it. 30/90 Day SOI also is not currently supporting La Nina. Which is pretty bad since we're entering July next week. Still seems normal since we're coming off a borderline super Nino.

July trades once they get going should do the job in forcing cool neutral.

Daily SOI is finally turning back to strong positive and there should be more the next few days. Tahiti SLP getting quite high vs June climo. Let’s see if that’s finally the start of a new trend.
RONI right now very likely only slightly negative currently.

[LarryWx]

Niño 3.4 at +0.3C on the weekly CPC update.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ ... ts-web.pdf

https://i.imgur.com/KVy4k8F.jpeg

Luis or anyone else, why didn’t CPC have a weekly ENSO update this morning?

[cycloneye]

Niño 3.4 at +0.3C on the weekly CPC update.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ ... ts-web.pdf

https://i.imgur.com/KVy4k8F.jpeg

Luis or anyone else, why didn’t CPC have a weekly ENSO update this morning?

The CPC site has not updated so dont know why.

[cycloneye]

LarryWx, here it is. CPC has niño 3.4 at +0.4C.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ ... ts-web.pdf

[Ntxw]

The readings are kind of high for oncoming La Nina still. There is likely a higher base of a warmer tropical ocean, in context in the past this might be per say 0 to -0.3 or something. It can still get there, as Ninas sometimes can quickly cool the readings in the span of month or two. Compared to the discussion of potential very strong Nina is probably not likely now. Overall NHEM and global ACE is still down.

Not sure if false readings, but lately there's been a strange pool at shallow depths of warmth in the east.

https://i.imgur.com/ZZRkUHe.png

I think some of us including myself were originally skeptical in regards to a strong La Nina by ASO.

Weird discrepancy between the Buoys and PENTAD in regards to the subsurface. Former doesn't look encouraging for La Nina but the latter supports it. 30/90 Day SOI also is not currently supporting La Nina. Which is pretty bad since we're entering July next week. Still seems normal since we're coming off a borderline super Nino.

July trades once they get going should do the job in forcing cool neutral.

Daily SOI is finally turning back to strong positive and there should be more the next few days. Tahiti SLP getting quite high vs June climo. Let’s see if that’s finally the start of a new trend.
RONI right now very likely only slightly negative currently.

I'm starting to think/view the RONI as a sign that it's not so much it's 'making' El Nino/La Nina more or less, but rather it is signaling the warming subtropical/extratropical is muting effects of BOTH ENSO states. If you asked me three months ago I would've said a strong -RONI was more than likely but the base warmth in the tropical ocean says no.

[Kingarabian]

I think some of us including myself were originally skeptical in regards to a strong La Nina by ASO.

Weird discrepancy between the Buoys and PENTAD in regards to the subsurface. Former doesn't look encouraging for La Nina but the latter supports it. 30/90 Day SOI also is not currently supporting La Nina. Which is pretty bad since we're entering July next week. Still seems normal since we're coming off a borderline super Nino.

July trades once they get going should do the job in forcing cool neutral.

Daily SOI is finally turning back to strong positive and there should be more the next few days. Tahiti SLP getting quite high vs June climo. Let’s see if that’s finally the start of a new trend.
RONI right now very likely only slightly negative currently.

I'm starting to think/view the RONI as a sign that it's not so much it's 'making' El Nino/La Nina more or less, but rather it is signaling the warming subtropical/extratropical is muting effects of BOTH ENSO states. If you asked me three months ago I would've said a strong -RONI was more than likely but the base warmth in the tropical ocean says no.

Yeah. Atlantic starting off very active while the Pacific basin as a whole remains historically dead is about the only indicator that cool neutral is on the way.

[Kingarabian]

Buoys continue to show enough support for warm neutral to continue for the next month. PENTAD has not updated since June 17?

Trade winds have been pretty anemic for the past 45 days. GFS shows a trade burst over the CPAC/EPAC but also shows a WWB near the dateline.

[cycloneye]

Today CPC had the weekly update and has Niño 3.4 at +0.3C and ONI down to +0.4C.

The latest weekly
SST departures are:
Niño 4= 0.5ºC
Niño 3.4= 0.3ºC
Niño 3= -0.1ºC
Niño 1+2= 0.0ºC



https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ ... ts-web.pdf

[Kingarabian]

It's possible we'll see a late year La Nina vs a weak La Nina in place by ASO.

Moderate to strong La Nina by ASO is very unlikely.

[LarryWx]

Today CPC had the weekly update and has Niño 3.4 at +0.3C and ONI down to +0.4C.

The latest weekly
SST departures are:
Niño 4= 0.5ºC
Niño 3.4= 0.3ºC
Niño 3= -0.1ºC
Niño 1+2= 0.0ºC



https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ ... ts-web.pdf

The cooling of the weeklies has been unexpectedly mainly nonexistent since late May! The June -5 SOI had a say in that. There has been a lingering shallow warm layer (down to 75-100 meters) that has been stubborn due to overall warmth. I earlier thought RONI had a good shot at a dip to moderate to strong La Nina by autumn but as now it is looking like moderate at the strongest with weak increasing in probability.

[cycloneye]

Cool neutral is almost the same as weak la niña for the NATL as the hurricane season will still be very active with Caribbean activity.

[LarryWx]

Cool neutral is almost the same as weak la niña for the NATL as the hurricane season will still be very active with Caribbean activity.

The outlook has gotten more ominous per data I've seen with the RONI not looking as strong. Per the July Euro after bias correction, it is predicting ASO RONI of near -0.8. If that or something nearby were to verify, that along with Beryl and the near record warm Atlantic would be an ominous indicator for the heart of the season in an area stretching from the NE Caribbean to the SE US. Of course, much of this region along with TX/NE MX has already been very active.

But it being an ominous indicator for the heart doesn't mean it will be as the RONI based stats are based on averages with lots of variability.