ATL: BERYL - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[ConvergenceZone]

Beryl still did quite a bit of damage even as a Cat 1 storm....
Not much tropical wave wise right now. I think it will be quiet until August. I know that many thought that because of Beryl that this season would be getting an early start, but as you look over the Atlantic right now, you'll have your evidence as to why that is false. But by the middle of August things SHOULD start getting busy again.

[Pipelines182]

Beryl still did quite a bit of damage even as a Cat 1 storm....
Not much tropical wave wise right now. I think it will be quiet until August. I know that many thought that because of Beryl that this season would be getting an early start, but as you look over the Atlantic right now, you'll have your evidence as to why that is false. But by the middle of August things SHOULD start getting busy again.

I remember thinking that a few days before Beryl formed

[Kohlecane]

Quite impressive tornado risk with Beryl, some of these signatures and CC are a bit scary for a tropical system

[tolakram]

Saved Radar loop



source: https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=s ... =undefined

[ConvergenceZone]

Beryl still did quite a bit of damage even as a Cat 1 storm....
Not much tropical wave wise right now. I think it will be quiet until August. I know that many thought that because of Beryl that this season would be getting an early start, but as you look over the Atlantic right now, you'll have your evidence as to why that is false. But by the middle of August things SHOULD start getting busy again.

I remember thinking that a few days before Beryl formed

But before Beryl formed there was already quite a bit of tropical activity with a couple of impressive waves etc... It's very normal for July to be quiet, so the quietness we are seeing now is what is expected for July, and so there's really no reason to expect this July to be any different than normal.

[weeniepatrol]

Beryl still did quite a bit of damage even as a Cat 1 storm....
Not much tropical wave wise right now. I think it will be quiet until August. I know that many thought that because of Beryl that this season would be getting an early start, but as you look over the Atlantic right now, you'll have your evidence as to why that is false. But by the middle of August things SHOULD start getting busy again.

I remember thinking that a few days before Beryl formed

There was a mjo event that had just crossed the Atlantic prior to beryl, though. Thats why the Atlantic monsoon trough was so beefy. Current mjo is now suppressive as the enhanced phase orbits over the pacific.


CyclonicFury over the indicators thread did note that eps shows a Kelvin wave crossing the Atlantic in mid July, with rising air returning to the mdr and Africa. So, we will see if that verifies and if it’s enough to overcome the broader mjo suppressed phase

[Kazmit]

Saved Radar loop

https://i.imgur.com/o8Dz5CM.gif

source: https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=s ... =undefined

It looked better 6 hours after landfall than it did 6 hours before landfall. Crazy.

[SconnieCane]

In that radar loop you can see how the inner band basically evolves into a squall line with multiple embedded cells; and out ahead of that the next band becomes a broken line of individual convective cells. Hence why Beryl has proven such an efficient tornado producer.

[LARanger]

There was a mjo event that had just crossed the Atlantic prior to beryl, though. Thats why the Atlantic monsoon trough was so beefy. Current mjo is now suppressive as the enhanced phase orbits over the pacific.

CyclonicFury over the indicators thread did note that eps shows a Kelvin wave crossing the Atlantic in mid July, with rising air returning to the mdr and Africa. So, we will see if that verifies and if it’s enough to overcome the broader mjo suppressed phase

Ah, good jargon for me to try to ingest. It hit me like Saharan dust at first but let's see if I can get spun up to speed anyway.

Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO):

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/w/index.php? ... fonly=true

Crap, there's more jargon (and I mean that non-pejoratively) in there. Modons, geostrophic adjustments, diabatic whatzits . . . but suffice it to say (to oversimplify and likely butcher it) that it's a cyclical-ish scenario of 'updraft' and 'downdraft' conditions that is usually more an Indian and East Pacific phenomenon, but with some effect on the Atlantic as these atmospheric oscillations move eastward. The 'updraft' phase is more conducive to stormy weather, the 'downdraft' less so, and a tropical disturbance (and especially a cyclone that lives on 'updraft') would thus hopefully have a harder time forming against a 'downdraft' environment. Would 'negative vertical shear' be a decent layman's descriptor?

Kelvin wave:

Okay, that one's easier.

Main Development Region (MDR)

Even easier . . . just wasn't familiar with the acronym version.

Thanks!

[Michele B]

Wow, for a Category 1 storm, there seems to have been quite some damage done. Rapidly intensifying systems really do pack a punch compared to weakening systems. I’m starting to wonder if this may have a billion dollar damage amount in the CONUS alone when it’s all said and done. Wishing the best to everyone affected by this storm in Texas.

From beginning to end, this storm OVERperformed.

One for the books, that's for sure.

With as much damage as I've listened to and seen on TWC, can you imagine if this was a stronger storm? I don't wanna think about that.

And it's only the first week of July - smh

[ConvergenceZone]

Wow, for a Category 1 storm, there seems to have been quite some damage done. Rapidly intensifying systems really do pack a punch compared to weakening systems. I’m starting to wonder if this may have a billion dollar damage amount in the CONUS alone when it’s all said and done. Wishing the best to everyone affected by this storm in Texas.

From beginning to end, this storm OVERperformed.

One for the books, that's for sure.

With as much damage as I've listened to and seen on TWC, can you imagine if this was a stronger storm? I don't wanna think about that.

And it's only the first week of July - smh

Yea I was watching the weather channel and saw that as well. More damage than I expected actually. Thank God it's quiet now and probably will be until we get into August.

[bob rulz]

There's still 3 weeks left in July. Not sure why people are so certain that things will be quiet for the rest of the month.

[ConvergenceZone]

There's still 3 weeks left in July. Not sure why people are so certain that things will be quiet for the rest of the month.

probably due to climatology. Sure you can get one off's like Beryl, but "normally" July is a quiet month. Heck I remember years when we made it to the end of August with not much activity at all and then it got going really quickly all the sudden..

[ljmac75]

I've got a few questions for everyone:
Will Beryl's peak intensity be adjusted post-season?
Will Beryl's Texas landfall intensity be adjusted post-season?
Will major adjustments be made to Beryl's intensity outside of the peak and Texas landfall?
Will the name be retired?
Will this be the worst hurricane this season?
I'll say yes, no, no, yes, no.

[Xyls]

Quite impressive tornado risk with Beryl, some of these signatures and CC are a bit scary for a tropical system

Some of this tornado activity has been crazy this may become one of the largest tornado outbreaks associated with a hurricane and some of these looked STRONG.

[FrontRunner]

This isn't based on a lot of analysis, but:

Will Beryl's peak intensity be adjusted post-season? No. It was borderline 145 kts vs. 150 kts, so I think they'll stick with 145.
Will Beryl's Texas landfall intensity be adjusted post-season? I'll go with yes, they'll ultimately bump up to 75 kts based on continued organization and surface obs.
Will major adjustments be made to Beryl's intensity outside of the peak and Texas landfall? Not major, but I think they'll nudge down some of the wind speeds in the NW Caribbean. For example, I could see the Yucatan landfall being only 90 kts rather than 95 kts.
Will the name be retired? Yes, due to the Windward Island impacts only.
Will this be the worst hurricane this season? Worst in what way? I'll go with highest wind, not lowest pressure, not worst damages or deaths.
I'll say yes, no, no, yes, no.

[Anti-freeze]

Seeing claims that Beryl is getting close to Top 5 for hurricanes that produced the most tornadoes. Claim of 56 so far, 5th place is 61. But I don't know if that Top 5 stat is confirmed tornadoes or tor warns.

[Hurricane2022]

I've got a few questions for everyone:
Will Beryl's peak intensity be adjusted post-season?
Will Beryl's Texas landfall intensity be adjusted post-season?
Will major adjustments be made to Beryl's intensity outside of the peak and Texas landfall?
Will the name be retired?
Will this be the worst hurricane this season?
I'll say yes, no, no, yes, no.

I - Yes. The intensity peak is likely to be adjusted upwards, from 145 to 150 kts, based on the 164 kt FL and 165 kt SMFR readings revealed by recon at the intensity peak.

II - Possibly yes. In this case it would be adjusted upwards, from 70 to 75 kts.

III - Probably yes. Even if turbulent, I believe that the intensity of the landfall in Yucatan will be changed from 95 to 90 kts. It's not much either.

IV - Yes. The damage caused to the Windward Islands is more than enough to retire Beryl permanently. But if it is not enough, the damage seen in Jamaica, Mexico and Texas will probably be.

V - Unfortunately, I don't think so. The season started just a month and a half ago. Apparently, we have a few more things to bear in the coming months.

So, i'd say Yes, Yes, Yes, Yes, No.

[SecondBreakfast]

Beryl’s “tail” looks nasty

Saved Radar loop

https://i.imgur.com/o8Dz5CM.gif

source: https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=s ... =undefined

[utweather]

Nothing for Austin. I didnt expect the deluge that was forecasted 3 days ago, but I thought we would get something today to help with the upcoming heat wave.