Expert Forecasts for the 2024 NATL Hurricane Season

[AnnularCane]

I guess "blob" is the buzz word for this year

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XzHDvzGmmw0

[Teban54]

Correction: The title should say ACE 230, not 240. The Net Tropical Cyclone Activity (NTC) forecast was 240.

Recap of this year's CSU forecasts so far:

• April 2024: 23/11/5, ACE 210, NS/H/MH days 115/45/13
• June 2024: 23/11/5, ACE 210, NS/H/MH days 115/45/13 (carbon copy of Apr 24)
• July 2024: 25/12/6, ACE 230, NS/H/MH days 120/50/16
• July 2024, remainder of season only: 22/11/5, ACE 194, NS/H/MH days 108.25/43.75/11.5

So even for people that want to argue the rest of 2024 could be less active than originally forecast, CSU's numbers have only taken off 1 TS, 16 ACE, and 1.5 MH days.

[SFLcane]

Looking back as @hurricanetrack mentioned this is the highest forecast ever issued by CSU which is just insane.

[cycloneye]

Correction: The title should say ACE 230, not 240. The Net Tropical Cyclone Activity (NTC) forecast was 240.

Recap of this year's CSU forecasts so far:

• April 2024: 23/11/5, ACE 210, NS/H/MH days 115/45/13
• June 2024: 23/11/5, ACE 210, NS/H/MH days 115/45/13 (carbon copy of Apr 24)
• July 2024: 25/12/6, ACE 230, NS/H/MH days 120/50/16
• July 2024, remainder of season only: 22/11/5, ACE 194, NS/H/MH days 108.25/43.75/11.5

So even for people that want to argue the rest of 2024 could be less active than originally forecast, CSU's numbers have only taken off 1 TS, 16 ACE, and 1.5 MH days.

Fixed it.

[Iceresistance]

 https://x.com/MatthewCappucci/status/1810704246649573408




I would take this prediction with a grain of salt, but with a C5 July Beryl we had earlier, I am unfortunately not surprised by the uptick in the prediction

[SFLcane]

 https://x.com/MatthewCappucci/status/1810704246649573408




I would take this prediction with a grain of salt, but with a C5 July Beryl we had earlier, I am unfortunately not surprised by the uptick in the prediction

Hmm, the forecast skill now being almost mid July is actually high and as Phil mentioned the outlook is off " above confidence " as mentioned in another thread i have been following Phil for a very long time and have the chance to speak with him a few times i will tell you unless something goes wrong your about to see all hell break loose in a few weeks time. Its really something in my opinion that in 30+ yrs todays forecast is the highest EVER issued by CSU.

[toad strangler]

CSU's updated analog seasons ....

1886, 1926, 1933, 1995, 2005, 2010, 2020

[Iceresistance]

CSU's updated analog seasons ....

1886, 1926, 1933, 1995, 2005, 2010, 2020

 https://x.com/oodlerwx/status/1810722468711289114

[SFLcane]

CSU's updated analog seasons ....

1886, 1926, 1933, 1995, 2005, 2010, 2020

1926. 1933, 2005 all were " no bueno " for South Florida. "

 https://x.com/AdrianLinares28/status/1438688082736427015

[cycloneye]

 https://x.com/EricBlake12/status/1810713647024370038

[Hammy]

:eek:
 https://x.com/EricBlake12/status/1810713647024370038

Interesting 2010 is yet another one of those seasons with barely anything between early July and late August

[MarioProtVI]

:eek:
 https://x.com/EricBlake12/status/1810713647024370038

Interesting 2010 is yet another one of those seasons with barely anything between early July and late August

If 2024 followed 2010 verbatim from now until the end, even with a long lull until mid-late August, it would still end up with 21-12-6 and ~200-205 ACE which is still in line with most predictions. Maybe a bit down from the 230 some are predicting but anything above 200 ACE would cement 2024 as an upper-echelon season.

[Spacecoast]

Perhaps someone could answer...

The June 11th CSU forecast called for:

Jun 2024: 23/11/5, ACE 210, ACE (W of 60W) 125

PROBABILITIES FOR MAJOR LANDFALL (June):
1) Entire continental U.S. coastline – 62%
2) U.S. East Coast Including Peninsula Florida – 34%
3) Gulf Coast from the Florida Panhandle – 42%
PROBABILITY FOR AT LEAST ONE MAJOR TRACKING THROUGH THE CARIBBEAN -66%

As we know, the July 9th CSU forecast increased overall activity to :

July 2024: 25/12/6, ACE 230, ACE (W of 60W) 140
HOWEVER,
While the overall activity. and ACE forecast have increased, the landfall probabilities have decreased ....

PROBABILITIES FOR MAJOR LANDFALL (July):
1) Entire continental U.S. coastline – 57%
2) U.S. East Coast Including Peninsula Florida – 31%
3) Gulf Coast from the Florida Panhandle – 38%
PROBABILITY FOR AT LEAST ONE MAJOR TRACKING THROUGH THE CARIBBEAN -62%

The updated CSU probability website https://tropical.colostate.edu/TC_impact.html also showed across the board decrease in 2024 county level probabilities (June - July), while the historical number, probabilities stayed the same.

According to CSU, "the Net landfall probability is shown to be linked to the overall Atlantic basin Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE)", and "Long-term statistics show that, on average, the more active the overall Atlantic basin hurricane season is, the greater the probability of U.S. hurricane landfall"

The only explanation that I can think of:
Another factor, (besides ACE, or overall activity) is being considered that would imply a higher number of storms, with a lower number landfalls, (recurves?).

Incidentally, the newest 2024 landfall probabilities (for Florida)
NS: 95%
H: 71%
MH: 40%

are similar to the August 17 2022 landfall probabilities (for Florida)
NS: 95%
H: 72%
MH: 41%

and while the August 17 2022 was forecasting only

Aug 2022: 18/8/4, ACE 150
The probabilities of major landfall (Aug 2022) were greater than the current 2024 probabilities :
1) Entire continental U.S. coastline – 68%
2) U.S. East Coast Including Peninsula Florida – 43%
3) Gulf Coast from the Florida Panhandle – 43%

Except for the caribbean, which was -57% in 2022

I'm confused about how Phil K is calculating these probabilities. They do not appear the be directly proportional to overall activity, or ACE.

[LarryWx]

Perhaps someone could answer...

The June 11th CSU forecast called for:

Jun 2024: 23/11/5, ACE 210, ACE (W of 60W) 125

PROBABILITIES FOR MAJOR LANDFALL (June):
1) Entire continental U.S. coastline – 62%
2) U.S. East Coast Including Peninsula Florida – 34%
3) Gulf Coast from the Florida Panhandle – 42%
PROBABILITY FOR AT LEAST ONE MAJOR TRACKING THROUGH THE CARIBBEAN -66%

As we know, the July 9th CSU forecast increased overall activity to :

July 2024: 25/12/6, ACE 230, ACE (W of 60W) 140
HOWEVER,
While the overall activity. and ACE forecast have increased, the landfall probabilities have decreased ....

PROBABILITIES FOR MAJOR LANDFALL (July):
1) Entire continental U.S. coastline – 57%
2) U.S. East Coast Including Peninsula Florida – 31%
3) Gulf Coast from the Florida Panhandle – 38%
PROBABILITY FOR AT LEAST ONE MAJOR TRACKING THROUGH THE CARIBBEAN -62%

The updated CSU probability website https://tropical.colostate.edu/TC_impact.html also showed across the board decrease in 2024 county level probabilities (June - July), while the historical number, probabilities stayed the same.

According to CSU, "the Net landfall probability is shown to be linked to the overall Atlantic basin Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE)", and "Long-term statistics show that, on average, the more active the overall Atlantic basin hurricane season is, the greater the probability of U.S. hurricane landfall"

The only explanation that I can think of:
Another factor, (besides ACE, or overall activity) is being considered that would imply a higher number of storms, with a lower number landfalls, (recurves?).

Incidentally, the newest 2024 landfall probabilities (for Florida)
NS: 95%
H: 71%
MH: 40%

are similar to the August 17 2022 landfall probabilities (for Florida)
NS: 95%
H: 72%
MH: 41%

and while the August 17 2022 was forecasting only

Aug 2022: 18/8/4, ACE 150
The probabilities of major landfall (Aug 2022) were greater than the current 2024 probabilities :
1) Entire continental U.S. coastline – 68%
2) U.S. East Coast Including Peninsula Florida – 43%
3) Gulf Coast from the Florida Panhandle – 43%

Except for the caribbean, which was -57% in 2022

I'm confused about how Phil K is calculating these probabilities. They do not appear the be directly proportional to overall activity, or ACE.

Great observation! I’m confident it’s because:

- Only reason ACE/overall activity increased is that activity through 7/8, day before updated forecast was released, exceeded their expectations through 7/8 in #s and ACE

- The updated activity is still season long. Thus, 7/9 forecast incorporates higher than expected activity prior to 7/8. Therefore, 7/9 fcast increased over 6/11 fcast despite good chance their implied forecast for 7/9+ stayed ~same.

- But OTOH the 7/9 forecast’s MH chances only include 7/9+. The 6/11 fcast MH chances were for 6/11+. There’s a slightly lower chance for MHs 7/11+ vs 6/9+. They decreased them 10% for all areas because it is a month later and thus they’re incorporating one month fewer.

[Spacecoast]

Great observation! I’m confident it’s because:

- Only reason ACE/overall activity increased is that activity through 7/8, day before updated forecast was released, exceeded their expectations through 7/8 in #s and ACE

- The updated activity is still season long. Thus, 7/9 forecast incorporates higher than expected activity prior to 7/8. Therefore, 7/9 fcast increased over 6/11 fcast despite good chance their implied forecast for 7/9+ stayed ~same.

- But OTOH the 7/9 forecast’s MH chances only include 7/9+. The 6/11 fcast MH chances were for 6/11+. There’s a slightly lower chance for MHs 7/11+ vs 6/9+. They decreased them 10% for all areas because it is a month later and thus they’re incorporating one month fewer.

Yes Larry,
A more careful reading reveals:
"Beginning this year, we are adjusting landfall probabilities based on the ratio of predicted ACE west of 60°W to the average ACE west of 60°W, as almost
all landmasses that we are issuing probabilities for are west of 60°W.".....

Which explains why 2024 landfall probabilities are roughly equal to 2022 probabilities despite much higher ACE forecasts. Prior forecasts were based upon overall ACE, as opposed to ACE west of 60°W. This results in the lower landfall probabilities (relative to 2022).

also, (as you point out):
"Probabilities are provided for both the full season 1880–2020 climatological average as well as the probability for the remainder of 2024,
based on the latest CSU seasonal hurricane forecast.".......

Which explains why the July's landfall probabilities are lower than June's. It seems to be based upon ACE west of 60°W for the remainder of the season, or

140 minus 29 (the observed ACE west of 60°W accumulated thus far this season) = 111, lower than June's forecast of 125.

Also, the section describing the:
"PROBABILITIES FOR AT LEAST ONE MAJOR (CATEGORY 3-4-5) HURRICANE LANDFALL ON EACH OF THE FOLLOWING COASTAL
AREAS (AFTER 8 JULY):
1) Entire continental U.S. coastline - 57% (full-season average from 1880–2020 is 43%)"

Compares remainder of season probabilities of 57% to the full-season average, which also a little apples to orange. A better comparison would be to 'remainder of season' (post July9th) average from 1880-2020, rather than full season.

[cycloneye]

IMO, I think when the early August updates from the public and private firms are out, they may have to lower a little bit. CSU had 25/12/6 on the july update. I say, 2024 season will end as quality vs quantity, but time will tell how in reallity, how it will end.

[jlauderdal]

IMO, I think when the early August updates from the public and private firms are out, they may have to lower a little bit. CSU had 25/12/6 on the july update. I say, 2024 season will end as quality vs quantity, but time will tell how in reallity, how it will end.

Is there a place to look at the poll from earlier this season?

[KirbyDude25]

IMO, I think when the early August updates from the public and private firms are out, they may have to lower a little bit. CSU had 25/12/6 on the july update. I say, 2024 season will end as quality vs quantity, but time will tell how in reallity, how it will end.

Is there a place to look at the poll from earlier this season?

Results here: https://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopi ... 1&t=124058

[cycloneye]

IMO, I think when the early August updates from the public and private firms are out, they may have to lower a little bit. CSU had 25/12/6 on the july update. I say, 2024 season will end as quality vs quantity, but time will tell how in reallity, how it will end.

Is there a place to look at the poll from earlier this season?

The S2K poll is at the top of Talking Tropics as sticky.

[jlauderdal]

IMO, I think when the early August updates from the public and private firms are out, they may have to lower a little bit. CSU had 25/12/6 on the july update. I say, 2024 season will end as quality vs quantity, but time will tell how in reallity, how it will end.

Is there a place to look at the poll from earlier this season?

The S2K poll is at the top of Talking Tropics as sticky.

Thx