2024 Indicators: SST's, MSLP, Shear, SAL, Steering, Instability (Day 16+ Climate Models)

[LarryWx]

CSU's updated analog seasons: 1886, 1926, 1933, 1995, 2005, 2010, 2020

Year/ASO ONI (using Eric Webb 1st 3 and NOAA RONI for 1995+):

-1886/-0.8: record tying 6 CONUS landfalling storms as H, all in Gulf (one landfall barely missed as hit far NE MX that still lead to H winds S TX); 3 were in June!

-1926/0.0: 3 CONUS landfalling storms as H (with another just missing S FL that still lead to H winds S FL); bad year FL/Gulf; 4th highest ACE

-1933/-1.1: 4 CONUS landfalling storms as H (with another just missing NC that still lead to H winds NC/VA); bad year SE FL, S TX, NC/VA; highest ACE

-1995/-0.7: 2 CONUS landfalling storms as H in FL; 5th highest ACE

-2005/0.0: 5 CONUS landfalling storms as H (with another just missing NC that still lead to H winds NC); bad year Gulf/SFL; 2nd highest ACE

-2010/-1.6: 0 CONUS landfalling storms as H

-2020/-1.2: record tying 6 CONUS landfalling storms as H; bad year W/C Gulf

So, the avg # of landfalling storms on the CONUS as a H for these 7 years was a very ominous 4.

Clearly, the best hope for CONUS when considering these analogs for a tame rest of season is for something similar to 2010 with its 0 H landfalls and only 2 TS hits, one minimal. However, note that ASO RONI was way down at -1.6, the lowest ASO ONI/RONI on record. Very low ASO (mod to strong Nina) on avg have not been as bad for CONUS H hits as weaker Ninas. With the most likely ASO RONI having risen to weak to low end moderate Nina territory, it is unlikely as of now that Nina will be that strong. Also, Beryl hitting TX probably isn't a good sign. Thus, the case for 2010-like tracks is kind of weak as of now though I'll still hope.

[jlauderdal]

How much you want to bet there’s going to be a high end Cat 4 or even a Cat 5 Cape Verde hurricane that makes its way to the western Atlantic once this next favorable MJO phase occurs late this month-early August?

4s and 5s are rare, I would take that bet at even odds. Aug 5th cutoff. Seriously, It wouldn't surprise me at all, considering what just happened, and I know early-season activity doesn't predict later-season activity, but this is 2024. It wouldn't surprise me if we saw something during this lull everyone was talking about. There was gonna be a lull, and all of a sudden, big bad beryl showed one day on the models and kaboom. What in the world is going on with our friends in Houston? They have had a bad run the last three months.

[SFLcane]

CSU's updated analog seasons: 1886, 1926, 1933, 1995, 2005, 2010, 2020

Year/ASO ONI (using Eric Webb 1st 3 and NOAA RONI for 1995+):

-1886/-0.8: record tying 6 CONUS landfalling storms as H, all in Gulf (one landfall barely missed as hit far NE MX that still lead to H winds S TX); 3 were in June!

-1926/0.0: 3 CONUS landfalling storms as H (with another just missing S FL that still lead to H winds S FL); bad year FL/Gulf; 4th highest ACE

-1933/-1.1: 4 CONUS landfalling storms as H (with another just missing NC that still lead to H winds NC/VA); bad year SE FL, S TX, NC/VA; highest ACE

-1995/-0.7: 2 CONUS landfalling storms as H in FL; 5th highest ACE

-2005/0.0: 5 CONUS landfalling storms as H (with another just missing NC that still lead to H winds NC); bad year Gulf/SFL; 2nd highest ACE

-2010/-1.6: 0 CONUS landfalling storms as H

-2020/-1.2: record tying 6 CONUS landfalling storms as H; bad year W/C Gulf

So, the avg # of landfalling storms on the CONUS as a H for these 7 years was a very ominous 4.

Clearly, the best hope for CONUS when considering these analogs for a tame rest of season is for something similar to 2010 with its 0 H landfalls and only 2 TS hits, one minimal. However, note that ASO RONI was way down at -1.6, the lowest ASO ONI/RONI on record. Very low ASO (mod to strong Nina) on avg have not been as bad for CONUS H hits as weaker Ninas. With the most likely ASO RONI having risen to weak to low end moderate Nina territory, it is unlikely as of now that Nina will be that strong. Also, Beryl hitting TX probably isn't a good sign. Thus, the case for 2010-like tracks is kind of weak as of now though I'll still hope.

Those analogs sure make me pretty nervous here in SFL. Still can't get over CSU issued its highest outlook in its history today. Let that sink in...

[jlauderdal]

CSU's updated analog seasons: 1886, 1926, 1933, 1995, 2005, 2010, 2020

Year/ASO ONI (using Eric Webb 1st 3 and NOAA RONI for 1995+):

-1886/-0.8: record tying 6 CONUS landfalling storms as H, all in Gulf (one landfall barely missed as hit far NE MX that still lead to H winds S TX); 3 were in June!

-1926/0.0: 3 CONUS landfalling storms as H (with another just missing S FL that still lead to H winds S FL); bad year FL/Gulf; 4th highest ACE

-1933/-1.1: 4 CONUS landfalling storms as H (with another just missing NC that still lead to H winds NC/VA); bad year SE FL, S TX, NC/VA; highest ACE

-1995/-0.7: 2 CONUS landfalling storms as H in FL; 5th highest ACE

-2005/0.0: 5 CONUS landfalling storms as H (with another just missing NC that still lead to H winds NC); bad year Gulf/SFL; 2nd highest ACE

-2010/-1.6: 0 CONUS landfalling storms as H

-2020/-1.2: record tying 6 CONUS landfalling storms as H; bad year W/C Gulf

So, the avg # of landfalling storms on the CONUS as a H for these 7 years was a very ominous 4.

Clearly, the best hope for CONUS when considering these analogs for a tame rest of season is for something similar to 2010 with its 0 H landfalls and only 2 TS hits, one minimal. However, note that ASO RONI was way down at -1.6, the lowest ASO ONI/RONI on record. Very low ASO (mod to strong Nina) on avg have not been as bad for CONUS H hits as weaker Ninas. With the most likely ASO RONI having risen to weak to low end moderate Nina territory, it is unlikely as of now that Nina will be that strong. Also, Beryl hitting TX probably isn't a good sign. Thus, the case for 2010-like tracks is kind of weak as of now though I'll still hope.

Those analogs sure make me pretty nervous here in SFL. Still can't get over CSU issued its highest outlook in its history today. Let that sink in...

Overdue in sofla is not strong enough, look at the tracks the last 15 years.

[aspen]

How much you want to bet there’s going to be a high end Cat 4 or even a Cat 5 Cape Verde hurricane that makes its way to the western Atlantic once this next favorable MJO phase occurs late this month-early August?

I’m still doubtful we’ll see much activity, let alone another Cat 4+, for the rest of the month. It is still July with an incoming suppressive MJO phase, after all. Probably one sometime later in August, though.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

I think a lot of people forget most of 2005's storms between Emily and Katrina were fairly weak spinups.

[Woofde]

How much you want to bet there’s going to be a high end Cat 4 or even a Cat 5 Cape Verde hurricane that makes its way to the western Atlantic once this next favorable MJO phase occurs late this month-early August?

I’m still doubtful we’ll see much activity, let alone another Cat 4+, for the rest of the month. It is still July with an incoming suppressive MJO phase, after all. Probably one sometime later in August, though.

Yeah, I agree with this. Beryl showed us why storms that find good atmospheric conditions will be extremely dangerous this year, but those storms still need to find said conditions. Saharan air and general climatology should keep things somewhat quiet. Though there's always the chance.

Once that flip is switched mid-August or so, I'm fully expecting a serious outbreak of hurricanes with many long trackers. Beryl showed us how rocketfuel SSTs allow a storm to plow through otherwise unfavorable conditions. If those 200+ ACE forecasts are to verify, things will be nuts.

[hurricane2025]

I think a lot of people forget most of 2005's storms between Emily and Katrina were fairly weak spinups.

Rita wasn’t weak

[Cpv17]

I think a lot of people forget most of 2005's storms between Emily and Katrina were fairly weak spinups.

Rita wasn’t weak

R isn’t between E & K.

[weeniepatrol]

850mb westerly wind anomalies are EVERYWHERE during January-June this and last year, relative to the period since 2013.



Trades have been much weaker than normal for all of Winter through Summer, leading to less stress on the ocean surface and producing calmer seas. Tropical heat has more time to build up - both at the surface and at depth. No wonder SSTs have gone batsh*t since 2023

[Hypercane_Kyle]

I think a lot of people forget most of 2005's storms between Emily and Katrina were fairly weak spinups.

Rita wasn’t weak

Sorry, I mean Franklin, Gert, Harvey, Irene, TD10, and Jose. Only Irene briefly peaked as a hurricane.

[SFLcane]

 https://x.com/AdrianLinares28/status/1811022930236559822

[toad strangler]

 https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1811026420321374584

[Teban54]

Canary Current may warm back up soon.

 https://x.com/dmorris9661/status/1810988300737343884


 https://x.com/dmorris9661/status/1810988303430119765

[cycloneye]

Analogs of sst anomalies. Here is Andy's tweet.

@AndyHazelton


A few other analogs...MDR still running solidly ahead of 1995, 1998, 2003, 2004. Mixed bag on ENSO, but overall nothing to suggest the Pacific will be able to slow down the Atlantic this year.

 https://x.com/AndyHazelton/status/1811044282960109921

[cycloneye]

This message is about that big warm blob near New Foundland and what effect it may have on the MDR, if any.

Here is his complete message at X.

@oodlerwx
I've noticed some people here talking about the significance of warmer anomalies off the coast of Newfoundland, and how that affects TC formation during the #HurricaneSeason.

In my experience, these anomalies are quite complicated but don't directly signify reduced activity.

It's the relationship between the subtropics and the deep tropics that causes the issue. If the warm pool off of Newfoundland is considerably warmer than the deep tropics, it can result in instability issues. However, if the deep tropics can similarly compete with said warm pool, it won't have much effect.

additionally, the two seasons that had the most warm pool issues (2013,2022) also had notable cooler anomalies off of NW Africa. (pictured Below.)

The warm pool in both of these years is notably more west as well. In fact, the warm pool this year is so far east, it could be considered part of the canary current.

These anomalies can also be related to pacific warmth, which builds up as the La Nina progresses. We've seen this in other notable seasons such as 2005 and 2017.

 https://x.com/oodlerwx/status/1811045662026330354

[zzzh]

 https://x.com/MichaelRLowry/status/1811043649959940263


The tropical forcing is clearly in control, a warm MDR with La Nina made the shear one of the lowest on record. The wavebreaking caused by Atlantic ridging made it down to 20N, and is somewhat responsible for the weakening of Beryl in NW Caribbean.

[SFLcane]

 https://x.com/BenNollWeather/status/1811137033232076963

[mantis83]

:crazyeyes:

 https://x.com/BenNollWeather/status/1811137033232076963

based on the precip anomalies, there may be a break in the ridging in the central atlantic, but if anything gets past that, then look out!

[WeatherBoy2000]

 https://x.com/MikeTFox5/status/1811227807684444356



With Beryl and now this, it looks like the theme for this summer is very different from last summer which had very weak ridging in general. Stronger ridging favors suppressed and westward tracks (Beryl) which were non-existent last year. Of course this could change for the peak of the season, but this is foreboding and so far falls in line with climate model predictions.