2024 EPAC Season

[Hurricane2022]

I feel like this is going to rival 2010 in terms of inactivity.

2010 was already at 4/2/2 on the July 4th.

[Teban54]

I feel like this is going to rival 2010 in terms of inactivity.

2010 was already at 4/2/2 on the July 4th.

And with Cat 5 Celia to boot.

[aspen]

I feel like this is going to rival 2010 in terms of inactivity.

2010 is going to look like 2015 in comparison to this season lol.

[cycloneye]

Finnally #1!!!!!!!

[Kingarabian]

GFS appears to be ramping things up. Now shows a tropical depression and a weak tropical storm all developing within the next 14 days. But then again its the only model that shows the MJO skipping the MC and moving into the Pacific.

[cycloneye]

Wow, what a waking up would be for this basin if it occurs.

[Kingarabian]

Two strong systems on the 18z GFS. In fact all the global models now show show a pretty large system moving towards 125W with intensity varying.

[Yellow Evan]

They’ll be a couple CCKWs coming in around a week though westerlies from stronger intraseasonal forcing in the WPAC could be an issue.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

My gut tells me there may be a 2016-esque resurgence in activity I hope the Pacific ramps up. I could be very wrong tho...

[Kingarabian]

GFS basically showing 3 majors in a row. Lots of ACE.

[Category5Kaiju]

We're certainly going to need other models to corroborate what the GFS has down the line, and it could be right. But at the same time, I have a feeling the GFS is up to its rather familiar bias of "it's El Nino again."

[cycloneye]

 https://x.com/Yellow_Evan/status/1810368953790992602

[Yellow Evan]

GFS medium to long range solutions are too aggressive given there’s no coherent MJO passage until the very end of the run, which it itself is probably overcooked given its usual biases.

[Kingarabian]

GFS unsurprisingly drops all development

[USTropics]

I'm curious, how does the current EPAC season stack up with other slow starting seasons? The EPAC is almost running 100 times behind the usual ACE for July 10th (observed is a paltry 0.2 while climo is at 19.7). Named storm days is 0.5 (climo is ~12) and we've typically observed 3.5 named storms by July 10th (only TS Aletta has formed in the EPAC to date). I know this is one of the slowest starts (if not the slowest start) to the EPAC, now inline with years like 1977, 1996, 2007, and 2010. I'll try and run some ibtracs data later this week to see how it stacks with those years if no one has that data available currently.

[WeatherBoy2000]

I'm curious, how does the current EPAC season stack up with other slow starting seasons? The EPAC is almost running 100 times behind the usual ACE for July 10th (observed is a paltry 0.2 while climo is at 19.7). Named storm days is 0.5 (climo is ~12) and we've typically observed 3.5 named storms by July 10th (only TS Aletta has formed in the EPAC to date). I know this is one of the slowest starts (if not the slowest start) to the EPAC, now inline with years like 1977, 1996, 2007, and 2010. I'll try and run some ibtracs data later this week to see how it stacks with those years if no one has that data available currently.

I don't believe any other season has performed worse than 2024 so far. 2010 actually had a very active June but completely shut down for the rest of the year pretty much.

[Kingarabian]

Globals don't seem to be bullish (other than the GFS) but there is EPS and GEFS support for a weaker system.

[Category5Kaiju]

If there was ever a season that actually deserves to be cancelled early, I'm willing to bet that this year is a good candidate

[DorkyMcDorkface]

It was reasonable to anticipate a below average season what with the impending Niña and the state of the PDO, but my expectations were for a decent start followed by the typical second-half Niña shutdown given the evolution of ENSO. Did not at all foresee such a dearth of early-season activity, and I'm probably not alone in that sentiment.

Does look like the basin will be receiving some favorable intraseasonal forcing over the coming weeks so we'll see if anything comes of it. Would be really surprised if we enter August without a single hurricane in the books.

[Teban54]

 https://x.com/dmorris9661/status/1811351233636049000