2024 Indicators: SST's, MSLP, Shear, SAL, Steering, Instability (Day 16+ Climate Models)

[LarryWx]

 https://x.com/MikeTFox5/status/1811227807684444356



With Beryl and now this, it looks like the theme for this summer is very different from last summer which had very weak ridging in general. Stronger ridging favors suppressed and westward tracks (Beryl) which were non-existent last year. Of course this could change for the peak of the season, but this is foreboding and so far falls in line with climate model predictions.

This not only is one of the strongest Bermuda highs at 500 mb on record based on records back to 1950. It is THE strongest on record! The record strongest is 600 dm. This one is progged to peak way up at ~604 dm tomorrow evening! Bermuda itself is progged to peak at 601-2, which would beat its record of 600 dm. It’s amazing what the warmest oceans on record are causing.

The strongest on record for the entire Atlantic is 603 (just offshore Casablanca, Morocco). So, this looks to be the strongest on record for the entire Atlantic! The strongest on record for entire globe is 605.6 in the NPAC S of the Aleutians.

[MEANINGLESS_NUMBERS]

 https://x.com/MikeTFox5/status/1811227807684444356



With Beryl and now this, it looks like the theme for this summer is very different from last summer which had very weak ridging in general. Stronger ridging favors suppressed and westward tracks (Beryl) which were non-existent last year. Of course this could change for the peak of the season, but this is foreboding and so far falls in line with climate model predictions.

This not only is one of the strongest Bermuda highs at 500 mb on record based on records back to 1950. It is THE strongest on record! The record strongest is 600 dm. This one is progged to peak way up at ~604 dm tomorrow evening! Bermuda itself is progged to peak at 601-2, which would beat its record of 600 dm. It’s amazing what the warmest oceans on record are causing.

The strongest on record for the entire Atlantic is 603 (just offshore Casablanca, Morocco). So, this looks to be the strongest on record for the entire Atlantic! The strongest on record for entire globe is 605.6 in the NPAC S of the Aleutians.

And the weather here in Bermuda is gorgeous. Forecast is 81-82 for the next ten days. Boating weekends all summer.

[OuterBanker]

:crazyeyes:

 https://x.com/BenNollWeather/status/1811137033232076963

I find the Euro/UKMET ASO precipitation chart rather interesting. If this proves out a lot of areas are going to escape. Both coasts of Florida are pretty well screwed. And the southeast coast to NC also. But, the seus is only around the immediate coast. Se Tx (not sure if it already includes Beryl) is wet. But, most of the rest of Gulf coast states are rather unscathed. It doesn’t indicate any storms going inland just about anywhere.

[cheezyWXguy]

:crazyeyes:

 https://x.com/BenNollWeather/status/1811137033232076963

I find the Euro/UKMET ASO precipitation chart rather interesting. If this proves out a lot of areas are going to escape. Both coasts of Florida are pretty well screwed. And the southeast coast to NC also. But, the seus is only around the immediate coast. Se Tx (not sure if it already includes Beryl) is wet. But, most of the rest of Gulf coast states are rather unscathed. It doesn’t indicate any storms going inland just about anywhere.

I’m not sure what the trends are around inland precip anomalies for the SE US in comparison to previous outlooks, but I’m not certain this would be an indicator that these areas are unscathed. This is a 3 month outlook for an area that spends most of the summer and early fall oscillating between being directly under or on the periphery of stagnant high pressure ridges, and the passage of TC through the area would only take around a day or so. But then again, TCs do tend to drop a lot of rain in the short time they take to transit. Would just a couple of notable tc landfalls result in a significantly different depiction here?

[weeniepatrol]

Frankly, if this is what MDR shear looks like during a suppressed MJO phase then we are screwed.

[zzzh]

We should see some major warming in the MDR and Canary Current in the next 10 days as trade slows down.

[WiscoWx02]

Frankly, if this is what MDR shear looks like during a suppressed MJO phase then we are screwed.

https://i.imgur.com/ytsgNyT.png

This certainly has had my attention over the last few days. The lack of shear certainly suggests La Nina as well as greater thickness values above the western MDR associated with air warmed by the warmer than average waters below it.

[redingtonbeach]

:crazyeyes:

 https://x.com/BenNollWeather/status/1811137033232076963

I find the Euro/UKMET ASO precipitation chart rather interesting. If this proves out a lot of areas are going to escape. Both coasts of Florida are pretty well screwed....

Didn't do well last year.

https://twitter.com/BenNollWeather/status/1678837797904588803

[IcyTundra]

I wouldn't take the precip maps from these climate models literally. The most important takeaway from them is that it will be a busy season with more westward tracks favored compared to last year.

[aspen]

I find the Euro/UKMET ASO precipitation chart rather interesting. If this proves out a lot of areas are going to escape. Both coasts of Florida are pretty well screwed....

Didn't do well last year.

https://twitter.com/BenNollWeather/status/1678837797904588803

https://res.cloudinary.com/graham-media-group/image/upload/f_auto/q_auto/c_scale,w_900/v1/media/gmg/PJ37JHNQOBE4LMFOVVRVPM5DIA.PNG?_a=DAJAUVWIZAAA

Actually it didn’t perform that bad. It suggested weak Caribbean activity and plenty of MDR recurves, and that’s what we got during ASO.

[cycloneye]

Atlantic Niña comming?

 https://x.com/BenNollWeather/status/1811734481507954794

[cycloneye]

 https://x.com/MichaelRLowry/status/1811751430673346744

[SFLcane]

 https://x.com/MichaelRLowry/status/1811751430673346744

 https://x.com/AdrianLinares28/status/1811757935141277986

[Hurricane2022]

 https://x.com/MichaelRLowry/status/1811751430673346744

Its 2020 all over again!!

[cycloneye]

On fire the sst's.

 https://x.com/LeonSimons8/status/1811779771828699436

[MEANINGLESS_NUMBERS]

On fire the sst's.

 https://x.com/LeonSimons8/status/1811779771828699436

The powerful heat engine named Beryl gave a brief reprieve but we are back on track for some records by the end of the month.

[MississippiWx]

Looking at true color visible imagery, the dust is very far north and mostly outside of the MDR. I’m not saying there isn’t any dry air in the MDR- I’m referring specifically to dust. The ITCZ is very far north currently as well. This should allow warming of the MDR due to anomalous westerlies and possible cooling north of the MDR.

[cycloneye]

Quiet until mid August is my take.

 https://x.com/RyanMaue/status/1812135823669608570

[jlauderdal]

Quiet until mid August is my take.

 https://x.com/RyanMaue/status/1812135823669608570

A month of quiet prediction is very brave in any season.

[USTropics]

Quiet until mid August is my take.

 https://x.com/RyanMaue/status/1812135823669608570

A month of quiet prediction is very brave in any season.

I do think the Atlantic (particularly the MDR...can't believe I have to type that in July lol) will remain rather suppressed over the next 2-3 weeks, as activity shifts more towards the WPAC/EPAC:


The ensembles won't really start to pick up on activity until the 5-7 day range. This was the EPS about a week before Beryl formed:


Ensembles started to get a bit better, but even 5 days before Beryl formed only ~20% of ensembles showed development: