2024 Indicators: SST's, MSLP, Shear, SAL, Steering, Instability (Day 16+ Climate Models)

[MetroMike]

Quiet until mid August is my take.

 https://x.com/RyanMaue/status/1812135823669608570

I believe that is a safe statement. If we have activity before that no one will call you on it or even care.

[MEANINGLESS_NUMBERS]

The case for an insane 2024 is starting to crack. La Nina coming later than originally thought, extreme SAL, temperatures not quite as off the charts as they were at the start of the season.

[weeniepatrol]

The case for an insane 2024 is starting to crack. La Nina coming later than originally thought, extreme SAL, temperatures not quite as off the charts as they were at the start of the season.

lol.

[mcheer23]

The case for an insane 2024 is starting to crack. La Nina coming later than originally thought, extreme SAL, temperatures not quite as off the charts as they were at the start of the season.

lol.

lol is correct.

[Hurricane2022]

The case for an insane 2024 is starting to crack. La Nina coming later than originally thought, extreme SAL, temperatures not quite as off the charts as they were at the start of the season.

I don't think so. We could still have an "insane" season like 2010, 1996 or 2004. I mean...Beryl was not a little decoration to make the final numbers for 2024 more robust...but rather, most likely, an indicator of what is to come

My prediction is no longer as insane as the one I made in the 2024 Poll in April...But I still imagine we will see something like 25/13/6 and ACE of 210 - 230, in line with TSR and CSU predictions. We don't necessarily need minimal SAL and ever-warmer ocean temperatures to see insanity...Just only 2 systems, like Fiona and Ian in the 2022 season, can make things almost unbelievable

[cycloneye]

The case for an insane 2024 is starting to crack. La Nina coming later than originally thought, extreme SAL, temperatures not quite as off the charts as they were at the start of the season.

In very active seasons, the most activity has been from early to mid august. Look at 2020 when 22 of the 31 that formed were after August 13th. Case closed.

[Teban54]

The case for an insane 2024 is starting to crack. La Nina coming later than originally thought, extreme SAL, temperatures not quite as off the charts as they were at the start of the season.

Most of the March and April seasonal forecasts predicted MDR SSTAs to be around where they are currently during peak season (i.e. cooling down from the spring anomalies), instead of jaw-dropping +2C that people may have been used to during the past year. Also, even some models like the Euro that have a warm ENSO bias still forecasted a hyperactive season.

[AnnularCane]

Gotta love Season Cancel Season.

[jlauderdal]

Quiet until mid August is my take.

 https://x.com/RyanMaue/status/1812135823669608570

I believe that is a safe statement. If we have activity before that no one will call you on it or even care.

I will remember, lol. I hope the prediction is correct but its looking more favorable into early august.

[aspen]

The case for an insane 2024 is starting to crack. La Nina coming later than originally thought, extreme SAL, temperatures not quite as off the charts as they were at the start of the season.

Going from “insane” to “hyperactive”. I’m doubtful those 200+ ACE forecasts are going to verify, but we’re probably on track for 160-200 ACE.

Even if it takes longer for ENSO to fully become a La Niña, the atmospheric effects are already in place: suppressed Pacific and enhanced Atlantic. We may have the least active WPac and EPac seasons on record at this rate, which means they won’t be competing with the Atlantic.

SSTs might not match or exceed 2023 again, but once the standard July/early August SAL outbreaks clear, they should remain among the top 5 highest in the satellite era along with other hyperactive years. 2020 had quite a strong SAL outbreak and still ended up being hyperactive, although that was a west-based season so a SAL outbreak of this magnitude may have some negative effects on its eventual overall activity.

[Category5Kaiju]

The case for an insane 2024 is starting to crack. La Nina coming later than originally thought, extreme SAL, temperatures not quite as off the charts as they were at the start of the season.

La Nina coming later than originally thought

Many destructive, landfall heavy years, such as 2005 and 2017, actually had their most dangerous phases happen during cool neutral/weak La Nina conditions. For some reason, having a quick transition to a La Nina, especially a strong Nina, is associated with more recurves (see 2010, 2011, 2021 as examples of stronger La Nina actually not sending many land-impacting systems originating in the MDR)

extreme SAL

If you have a robust enough wave, especially one that is far enough south and shielded from SAL, it can actually flourish. We saw this with Beryl as it traveled just south of a heck ton of dry air and dust. Same with Irma; right before that storm, there was a notable burst of SAL. SAL isn't as detrimental to tropical cyclone activity as some may argue it to be, especially if other conditions (wind shear, less broad waves, etc.) are right enough.

temperatures not quite as off the charts as they were at the start of the season

The Atlantic will only get warmer than it is currently as it is natural and physically favored for the basin to warm into the later summer/early fall. July is not the hottest month for the water. You have to look toward August/September for that.

[crownweather]

The case for an insane 2024 is starting to crack. La Nina coming later than originally thought, extreme SAL, temperatures not quite as off the charts as they were at the start of the season.

Hey, an actual season cancel post which is likely to age extremely poorly.


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[tolakram]

The case for an insane 2024 is starting to crack. La Nina coming later than originally thought, extreme SAL, temperatures not quite as off the charts as they were at the start of the season.

Going from “insane” to “hyperactive”. I’m doubtful those 200+ ACE forecasts are going to verify, but we’re probably on track for 160-200 ACE.

Even if it takes longer for ENSO to fully become a La Niña, the atmospheric effects are already in place: suppressed Pacific and enhanced Atlantic. We may have the least active WPac and EPac seasons on record at this rate, which means they won’t be competing with the Atlantic.

SSTs might not match or exceed 2023 again, but once the standard July/early August SAL outbreaks clear, they should remain among the top 5 highest in the satellite era along with other hyperactive years. 2020 had quite a strong SAL outbreak and still ended up being hyperactive, although that was a west-based season so a SAL outbreak of this magnitude may have some negative effects on its eventual overall activity.

The important thing here is to quote these posts. Thanks.

I am on record early as doubting a record breaking season for the simple fact that predicting outliers is impossible and almost always wrong.

[Hammy]

The case for an insane 2024 is starting to crack. La Nina coming later than originally thought, extreme SAL, temperatures not quite as off the charts as they were at the start of the season.

We had a Cat 4 in the MDR in June and a Cat 5 in the Caribbean in the first days of July. We've already had an insane season no matter how you look at it

[Category5Kaiju]

The case for an insane 2024 is starting to crack. La Nina coming later than originally thought, extreme SAL, temperatures not quite as off the charts as they were at the start of the season.

We had a Cat 4 in the MDR in June and a Cat 5 in the Caribbean in the first days of July. We've already had an insane season no matter how you look at it

And adding to this, while Beryl is indeed a freak anomaly of a storm, I also see it as a consequence of the unusually favorable Atlantic conditions that many other years, with the exceptions of sinister years like 1933 and 2005, lacked. Under normal circumstances, we shouldn't have seen this kind of system. If this is not an indication of a year that may bring many powerful systems and be extremely active, then I don't really know what is.

[weeniepatrol]

Respectfully, I don't follow the reasoning.

Here are the facts:

- Earliest Cat 4 on record. Earliest cat 5 on record. 36 ACE by mid July; highest ACE to date on record. We are already 23% of the way to hyperactive ACE status.

- As of 7 July, 80% of the MDR was at record or near-record warmth. 1 June to 7 July vertical shear was the lowest ever observed for that period. Credit Michael Lowry





- It's July. The subtropical ridge is at its strongest point of the entire year, and hence there's subsequently the strongest trades of the year and dust aerosols. In August as the monsoon trof lifts north and the African monsoon begins to peak, not to mention dust going away SSTs WILL warm, not that they aren't still near the top of climatology.. anomalies aren't decreasing because the MDR is cooling. Anomalies are going down because the MDR isn't continuing to warm.



- As for the dust, it means nothing. Zero correlation this time of year to overall seasonal activity. Late June 2020 (IIRC) had the largest dust outbreak EVER, and that ended up a seven major hurricane season.

- CSU is looking at the same things you are, but INCREASED their forecast ACE from 210 to 230 units

- La Nina does not need to be officially declared by agencies for the Atlantic to be favored. This occurred in seasons like 2005.. La Nina didn't develop until Winter, yet the Pacific had suppressed convection all season long and so the Atlantic was hyperactive. Cool neutral is generally close to as favorable as La Nina. What matters most is the ABSENCE of El Nino and its forcings. We can tell this is occurring this year because the entire north Pacific is having record-low activity, EVEN WHEN the Atlantic is quiescent.

Now, RECORD ace, as in higher than 1933? over 258 units? Sure, that doesn't seem likely. But 200+? Easily doable

[Woofde]

The case for an insane 2024 is starting to crack. La Nina coming later than originally thought, extreme SAL, temperatures not quite as off the charts as they were at the start of the season.

We had a Cat 4 in the MDR in June and a Cat 5 in the Caribbean in the first days of July. We've already had an insane season no matter how you look at it

And adding to this, while Beryl is indeed a freak anomaly of a storm, I also see it as a consequence of the unusually favorable Atlantic conditions that many other years, with the exceptions of sinister years like 1933 and 2005, lacked. Under normal circumstances, we shouldn't have seen this kind of system. If this is not an indication of a year that may bring many powerful systems and be extremely active, then I don't really know what is.

It's a great example of why SSTs matter. Even if given the same atmospheric conditions, a regular SST configuration would have delayed the initial formation significantly. The peak intensity of Beryl would've been much lower, maybe up to Cat 2 or so. Finally, without the ample fuel and a very strong vortex to resist shear, Beryl quickly falls apart mid Carribean and glides into Central America as a wave.

[Teban54]

We had a Cat 4 in the MDR in June and a Cat 5 in the Caribbean in the first days of July. We've already had an insane season no matter how you look at it

And adding to this, while Beryl is indeed a freak anomaly of a storm, I also see it as a consequence of the unusually favorable Atlantic conditions that many other years, with the exceptions of sinister years like 1933 and 2005, lacked. Under normal circumstances, we shouldn't have seen this kind of system. If this is not an indication of a year that may bring many powerful systems and be extremely active, then I don't really know what is.

It's a great example of why SSTs matter. Even if given the same atmospheric conditions, a regular SST configuration would have delayed the initial formation significantly. The peak intensity of Beryl would've been much lower, maybe up to Cat 2 or so. Finally, without the ample fuel and a very strong vortex to resist shear, Beryl quickly falls apart mid Carribean and glides into Central America as a wave.

Elsa 2021 is a good analog of this scenario. Cat 1 peak right around where Beryl peaked as a Cat 5, followed by weakening in the Caribbean to the point where people were doubting if it still had a circulation. And Elsa was already very anomalous for its time, with the only comparison being 1933:

 https://x.com/philklotzbach/status/1410538986548781057


 https://x.com/philklotzbach/status/1410931814877835266

[toad strangler]

The recent CSU update stated that the reality of Beryl is very likely a harbinger of things to come peak season. Who here is just as or more qualified to dispute that? Also, when is the next NOAA update?

[cycloneye]

The recent CSU update stated that the reality of Beryl is very likely a harbinger of things to come peak season. Who here is just as or more qualified to dispute that? Also, when is the next NOAA update?

Second thursday of august.