Woofde wrote:It's a great example of why SSTs matter. Even if given the same atmospheric conditions, a regular SST configuration would have delayed the initial formation significantly. The peak intensity of Beryl would've been much lower, maybe up to Cat 2 or so. Finally, without the ample fuel and a very strong vortex to resist shear, Beryl quickly falls apart mid Carribean and glides into Central America as a wave.Category5Kaiju wrote:Hammy wrote:
We had a Cat 4 in the MDR in June and a Cat 5 in the Caribbean in the first days of July. We've already had an insane season no matter how you look at it
And adding to this, while Beryl is indeed a freak anomaly of a storm, I also see it as a consequence of the unusually favorable Atlantic conditions that many other years, with the exceptions of sinister years like 1933 and 2005, lacked. Under normal circumstances, we shouldn't have seen this kind of system. If this is not an indication of a year that may bring many powerful systems and be extremely active, then I don't really know what is.
You’re right, but I think this is also a great example of why other atmospheric factors matter alongside SSTs. Event with near-record warm waters for this time of year, Beryl wouldn’t have reached the heights it did without a favorable shear/UL environment. The fact that it managed to find such an ideal environment in terms of SSTs and shear in late June/early July, when usually everything else struggles with strong trade-induced shear, is one heck of a sign that the basin is abnormally favorable this year. I was expecting a repeat of Elsa where the typical early season trades in The Graveyard would’ve decapitated the system.