2024 Indicators: SST's, MSLP, Shear, SAL, Steering, Instability (Day 16+ Climate Models)

[cycloneye]

Is a good time to prepare as things are tranquil, before the meat of the season comes.

 https://x.com/MichaelRLowry/status/1813223455501742303

[longhorn2004]

Read the Sahara desert dust is going to tap down on hurricane development. Fascinating stuff. So no one took the dust into account when predicting the season?

[IcyTundra]

Read the Sahara desert dust is going to tap down on hurricane development. Fascinating stuff. So no one took the dust into account when predicting the season?

The CSU prediction is taking into account SAL outbreaks. In fact they are quite common this time of year. Don’t be lulled to sleep by this quiet period right now.

[weeniepatrol]

Read the Sahara desert dust is going to tap down on hurricane development. Fascinating stuff. So no one took the dust into account when predicting the season?

Saharan dust occurs every single season. Even years like 2005 had dust outbreaks. The largest dust outbreak ever actually happened in Summer 2020. That year turned out to be hyperactive with seven major hurricanes.

Dust always rapidly becomes less of an issue through August. This absolutely is accounted for in the seasonal forecasts

[869MB]

https://i.imgur.com/exyvI2z.png
VP200 looks very favorable for the Atlantic, but 200mb wind and SLP looks like there is a subsidence branch over Atl.

Based upon this depiction alone, I would expect several tropical waves will traverse the MDR during the 3rd and last week of July but probably may not amount to anything significant until the close of the month where such tropical waves may find themselves in more favorable conditions in the Western Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico which could possibly lead to rapid development accordingly. Just a mere observation on my part. Nonetheless, this time frame is not very far out in time so remain vigilant.

[weeniepatrol]

Read the Sahara desert dust is going to tap down on hurricane development. Fascinating stuff. So no one took the dust into account when predicting the season?

Saharan dust occurs every single season. Even years like 2005 had dust outbreaks. The largest dust outbreak ever actually happened in Summer 2020. That year turned out to be hyperactive with seven major hurricanes.

Dust always rapidly becomes less of an issue through August. This absolutely is accounted for in the seasonal forecasts

Here’s a source for my 2005 claim which also includes a little background info about dust

https://airs.jpl.nasa.gov/resources/203/sahara-dust-cloud-july-2005/

[tolakram]

Read the Sahara desert dust is going to tap down on hurricane development. Fascinating stuff. So no one took the dust into account when predicting the season?

Where did you read this?

[weeniepatrol]

From today's global tropical hazards discussion from CPC,

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ ... /index.php

Meanwhile, the anticipated propagation of the MJO would tend to produce an increasingly favorable environment for TC genesis over the eastern Pacific Ocean. The ECMWF is very bullish in this regard, depicting probabilities of TC activity for the basin exceeding 60% into week-3 and beyond. Therefore, a slight risk for TC genesis is posted for portions of the Eastern Pacific basin for week-2 and a moderate risk for week-3. A slight risk for TC genesis is also posted for portions of the Caribbean and the tropical Atlantic where SSTs are very warm, and which also become more favored for TC development as the convectively enhanced phase of the MJO propagates further into the central Pacific.

[TropicalWinds]

Read the Sahara desert dust is going to tap down on hurricane development. Fascinating stuff. So no one took the dust into account when predicting the season?

Saharan dust outbreaks happen every year, no matter how active or inactive a season is. Yet every year around this time, people act like it’s some novel concept that’ll completely kill off all hurricane activity for the remainder of the season. It amazes me how little season cancelers have learned since 2016 (this isn’t directed at you, longhorn2004).

[zzzh]

MDR SST is warming up quickly, only trailing 2023 by 0.2 degrees. And if the trend continues, 2024 is going to reach climo max tomorrow

[WaveBreaking]

Read the Sahara desert dust is going to tap down on hurricane development. Fascinating stuff. So no one took the dust into account when predicting the season?

Saharan dust outbreaks happen every year, no matter how active or inactive a season is. Yet every year around this time, people act like it’s some novel concept that’ll completely kill off all hurricane activity for the remainder of the season. It amazes me how little season cancelers have learned since 2016 (this isn’t directed at you, longhorn2004).

A good example is 2022, which, besides the other inhibiting factors that made it go below expectations, had quite a lot of Saharan dust going well into August iirc. This helped to cause a completely inactive August, a very rare occurrence. But even with all of that dust, 2022 more than compensated for the lack of August activity in September, and we all know how that went.

[longhorn2004]

Read the Sahara desert dust is going to tap down on hurricane development. Fascinating stuff. So no one took the dust into account when predicting the season?

Saharan dust outbreaks happen every year, no matter how active or inactive a season is. Yet every year around this time, people act like it’s some novel concept that’ll completely kill off all hurricane activity for the remainder of the season. It amazes me how little season cancelers have learned since 2016 (this isn’t directed at you, longhorn2004).

The correlation between dust and hurricane formation is not that well known. Every time a Sahara dust cloud arrives the news in general explains it as a health issue. It's still a fascinating phenomenon.

[WeatherBoy2000]

 https://x.com/MasielloCameron/status/1813285855462903874



Seasons like 2005 with multiple major hurricanes in July and 2020 with a constant stream of activity are by far the exception, not the rule.

[ScottNAtlanta]

Read the Sahara desert dust is going to tap down on hurricane development. Fascinating stuff. So no one took the dust into account when predicting the season?

Dust often times peaks in July as the wave train really gets going, but as the month progresses into August you will notice that the vector of dust changes and moves further and further north to a point there isn't any more dust in the Atlantic (sometimes it actually moves towards Europe). Usually by August 15th we aren't talking about dust in the basin...because there isn't any

[Teban54]

Read the Sahara desert dust is going to tap down on hurricane development. Fascinating stuff. So no one took the dust into account when predicting the season?

Dust often times peaks in July as the wave train really gets going, but as the month progresses into August you will notice that the vector of dust changes and moves further and further north to a point there isn't any more dust in the Atlantic (sometimes it actually moves towards Europe). Usually by August 15th we aren't talking about dust in the basin...because there isn't any

And even if there's still dust on August 15th, that doesn't imply an inactive MDR.

The following image is from weeniepatrol's comment here. It shows a huge SAL outbreak on August 19, 2017. Irma formed 11 days later, followed by Jose and Maria in the MDR in September, all reaching high-end Category 4 or higher. 2017 is still commonly referred to as one of the most legendary MDR seasons on record, and holds the record for the highest ACE in a single month, not to mention being the costliest hurricane season ever.

[cycloneye]

 https://x.com/MichaelRLowry/status/1813329102675567099

[hurricanehunter69]

Read the Sahara desert dust is going to tap down on hurricane development. Fascinating stuff. So no one took the dust into account when predicting the season?

Check out my post on seasonal forecast thread. Page #15

[cycloneye]

Good post here about the troughs and ridges.

 https://x.com/AndyHazelton/status/1813582212933263458

[SFLcane]

 https://x.com/YouthfulOf/status/1813036836073447696

[cycloneye]

They flew last weekend east of the islands and found this.

 https://x.com/AndyHazelton/status/1813603168095498287