2024 EPAC Season

This is the general tropical discussion area. Anyone can take their shot at predicting a storms path.

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Forum rules

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

Help Support Storm2K
Message
Author
User avatar
Category5Kaiju
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4095
Joined: Thu Dec 24, 2020 12:45 pm
Location: Seattle

Re: 2024 EPAC Season

#141 Postby Category5Kaiju » Tue Jul 16, 2024 7:17 am

The Atlantic is shut down, but it's surreal seeing how badly this basin is struggling to produce a single named storm, let alone any appreciable system. Given our trend towards cold ENSO, I think the EPAC is really starting to run out of time to produce significant levels of activity before the Atlantic really begins to dominate.
1 likes   
Unless explicitly stated, all info in my posts is based on my own opinions and observations. Tropical storms and hurricanes can be extremely dangerous. Do not think you can beat Mother Nature. Refer to an accredited weather research agency or meteorologist if you need to make serious decisions regarding an approaching storm.

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 145277
Age: 68
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: 2024 EPAC Season

#142 Postby cycloneye » Tue Jul 16, 2024 6:28 pm

A new AOI.

South of Southern Mexico:
An area of low pressure is likely to form this weekend a few
hundred miles south of the coast of southern Mexico. Some
slow development of this system is possible early next week while
it moves westward to west-northwestward at 10-15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.


Image
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
AnnularCane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 2860
Joined: Thu Jun 08, 2006 9:18 am
Location: Wytheville, VA

Re: 2024 EPAC Season

#143 Postby AnnularCane » Tue Jul 16, 2024 6:43 pm

Wonder what percentage this one will get to before it starts to fade away? :lol:
0 likes   
"But it never rained rain. It never snowed snow. And it never blew just wind. It rained things like soup and juice. It snowed mashed potatoes and green peas. And sometimes the wind blew in storms of hamburgers." -- Judi Barrett, Cloudy with a Chance of Meatballs

User avatar
Hurricane2022
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1541
Joined: Tue Aug 23, 2022 11:38 pm
Location: Araçatuba, Brazil

Re: 2024 EPAC Season

#144 Postby Hurricane2022 » Tue Jul 16, 2024 6:54 pm

AnnularCane wrote:Wonder what percentage this one will get to before it starts to fade away? :lol:

40%. But now is already at 30% :lol:
0 likes   
Sorry for the bad English sometimes...!
For reliable and detailed information for any meteorological phenomenon, please consult the National Hurricane Center, Joint Typhoon Warning Center , or your local Meteo Center.

--------

Una cvm Christo, pro Christo, et in Christo. Sit nomen Domini benedictvm.

User avatar
Category5Kaiju
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4095
Joined: Thu Dec 24, 2020 12:45 pm
Location: Seattle

Re: 2024 EPAC Season

#145 Postby Category5Kaiju » Tue Jul 16, 2024 7:02 pm

I know a lot of weather trackers tend to be Atlantic-focused, but I wonder if there's any weather-watching group out there that loves to mainly watch the EPAC. I want to see their reactions right now :lol:
1 likes   
Unless explicitly stated, all info in my posts is based on my own opinions and observations. Tropical storms and hurricanes can be extremely dangerous. Do not think you can beat Mother Nature. Refer to an accredited weather research agency or meteorologist if you need to make serious decisions regarding an approaching storm.

Sciencerocks
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 9154
Age: 39
Joined: Thu Jul 06, 2017 1:51 am

2024 EPAC Season

#146 Postby Sciencerocks » Tue Jul 16, 2024 7:13 pm

The eastern pacific is completely screwed. This might be the lowest number of storms in the satellite period of record.
1 likes   

Astromanía
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 779
Age: 26
Joined: Sat Aug 25, 2018 10:34 pm
Location: Monterrey, N.L, México

Re: 2024 EPAC Season

#147 Postby Astromanía » Tue Jul 16, 2024 8:18 pm

Category5Kaiju wrote:I know a lot of weather trackers tend to be Atlantic-focused, but I wonder if there's any weather-watching group out there that loves to mainly watch the EPAC. I want to see their reactions right now :lol:


It's not a competition, you know.
0 likes   

User avatar
Kingarabian
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 15979
Joined: Sat Aug 08, 2009 3:06 am
Location: Honolulu, Hawaii

Re: 2024 EPAC Season

#148 Postby Kingarabian » Tue Jul 16, 2024 8:28 pm

AnnularCane wrote:Wonder what percentage this one will get to before it starts to fade away? :lol:

70-80%. Has a much better chance as La Nina years EPAC TCG is favored mostly off of Mexico.
Last edited by Kingarabian on Tue Jul 16, 2024 8:32 pm, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes   
RIP Kobe Bryant

User avatar
Kingarabian
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 15979
Joined: Sat Aug 08, 2009 3:06 am
Location: Honolulu, Hawaii

Re: 2024 EPAC Season

#149 Postby Kingarabian » Tue Jul 16, 2024 8:31 pm

Category5Kaiju wrote:I know a lot of weather trackers tend to be Atlantic-focused, but I wonder if there's any weather-watching group out there that loves to mainly watch the EPAC. I want to see their reactions right now :lol:

The thing is, ENSO is still favorable and while the PDO is negative there's still some positive anomalies off of NWAmerica.
0 likes   
RIP Kobe Bryant

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 145277
Age: 68
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: 2024 EPAC Season

#150 Postby cycloneye » Wed Jul 17, 2024 7:09 am

EPAC keeps digging a hole of records in a negative way. Here is about ACE.

 https://x.com/OSUWXGUY/status/1813537033006244251

0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 145277
Age: 68
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: 2024 EPAC Season

#151 Postby cycloneye » Wed Jul 17, 2024 9:04 am

And more. By how things are going, it may not pass 50 ACE.

 https://x.com/philklotzbach/status/1813569386915209554

0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
Kingarabian
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 15979
Joined: Sat Aug 08, 2009 3:06 am
Location: Honolulu, Hawaii

Re: 2024 EPAC Season

#152 Postby Kingarabian » Wed Jul 17, 2024 10:41 am

EPAC seasons following strong El Nino's have some sort of near average activity. For example, 1998 had above average hurricane/major hurricanes. 2016 was very active. 2024 is interesting for sure.
2 likes   
RIP Kobe Bryant

WeatherBoy2000
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 346
Joined: Mon Apr 10, 2023 9:29 am

Re: 2024 EPAC Season

#153 Postby WeatherBoy2000 » Wed Jul 17, 2024 11:16 am

Kingarabian wrote:EPAC seasons following strong El Nino's have some sort of near average activity. For example, 1998 had above average hurricane/major hurricanes. 2016 was very active. 2024 is interesting for sure.


2010 came off a strong el nino as well and featured record inactivity, what's happening with 2024 isn't completely without precedent.
0 likes   

User avatar
weeniepatrol
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1273
Joined: Sat Aug 22, 2020 5:30 pm
Location: WA State

Re: 2024 EPAC Season

#154 Postby weeniepatrol » Wed Jul 17, 2024 1:02 pm

WeatherBoy2000 wrote:
Kingarabian wrote:EPAC seasons following strong El Nino's have some sort of near average activity. For example, 1998 had above average hurricane/major hurricanes. 2016 was very active. 2024 is interesting for sure.


2010 came off a strong el nino as well and featured record inactivity, what's happening with 2024 isn't completely without precedent.


2010's sst configuration was spatially a bit different, I believe. However it also had a category 5 to open the season THEN record inactivity. We didn't even get that this year... if this MJO in the next couple weeks doesn't do the trick, nothing will IMO.
0 likes   

WeatherBoy2000
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 346
Joined: Mon Apr 10, 2023 9:29 am

Re: 2024 EPAC Season

#155 Postby WeatherBoy2000 » Wed Jul 17, 2024 1:46 pm

weeniepatrol wrote:
WeatherBoy2000 wrote:
Kingarabian wrote:EPAC seasons following strong El Nino's have some sort of near average activity. For example, 1998 had above average hurricane/major hurricanes. 2016 was very active. 2024 is interesting for sure.


2010 came off a strong el nino as well and featured record inactivity, what's happening with 2024 isn't completely without precedent.


2010's sst configuration was spatially a bit different, I believe. However it also had a category 5 to open the season THEN record inactivity. We didn't even get that this year... if this MJO in the next couple weeks doesn't do the trick, nothing will IMO.


I was just saying that very inactive post el nino seasons aren't without precedent, I'd argue that 2024 is more comparable to 2010 than to 1998 or 2016. 1998 and 2016 had +pdos and were super el ninos while the 2023 el nino was more comparable to 2009-2010 in strength along with a having a -pdo.
1 likes   

User avatar
Kingarabian
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 15979
Joined: Sat Aug 08, 2009 3:06 am
Location: Honolulu, Hawaii

Re: 2024 EPAC Season

#156 Postby Kingarabian » Wed Jul 17, 2024 8:13 pm

WeatherBoy2000 wrote:
Kingarabian wrote:EPAC seasons following strong El Nino's have some sort of near average activity. For example, 1998 had above average hurricane/major hurricanes. 2016 was very active. 2024 is interesting for sure.


2010 came off a strong el nino as well and featured record inactivity, what's happening with 2024 isn't completely without precedent.

2010 and 2024 don't compare much as the preceding El Nino's don't match amplitude wise and had different configurations. For example, the 2009-10 El Nino quickly transitioned to La Nina with AMJ and MJJ both negative. 2024's AMJ and MJJ ONI will be positive. And based on the SOI, the Walker cell is much weaker in 2024 through July compared to 2010.

And as mentioned above, 2010 had 3 serious hurricanes before July. We may enter August without a hurricane and only one short lived TS.
0 likes   
RIP Kobe Bryant

User avatar
Yellow Evan
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 16143
Age: 27
Joined: Fri Jul 15, 2011 12:48 pm
Location: Henderson, Nevada/Honolulu, HI
Contact:

Re: 2024 EPAC Season

#157 Postby Yellow Evan » Thu Jul 18, 2024 4:10 pm

Guidance support for activity in the next 10 days has dropped somehow. Unbelievable.
3 likes   

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 145277
Age: 68
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: 2024 EPAC Season

#158 Postby cycloneye » Fri Jul 19, 2024 12:44 pm

Well, EPAC keeps inactive and looks like it will continue for a while. The AOI NHC has been mentioning with 20% now drops to 10%.

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Fri Jul 19 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. South of Southern Mexico:
An area of low pressure could form by early next week a few hundred
miles south of the coast of southern Mexico. Development, if any, of
this system would be slow to occur while it moves west-northwestward
at 10 to 15 mph during the middle and latter parts of next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.


Forecaster Reinhart
1 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
Yellow Evan
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 16143
Age: 27
Joined: Fri Jul 15, 2011 12:48 pm
Location: Henderson, Nevada/Honolulu, HI
Contact:

Re: 2024 EPAC Season

#159 Postby Yellow Evan » Fri Jul 19, 2024 5:51 pm

18z GFS actually has a realistic solution for a compact TC near 120W forming early next week that ensembles have mostly backed off on.
0 likes   

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 145277
Age: 68
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: 2024 EPAC Season

#160 Postby cycloneye » Sat Jul 20, 2024 12:13 pm

I think the basin is ready to rumble with maybe 2-3 systems as the peak of the season is almost here and the kelvin wave plus mjo will help.

Image
1 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here


Return to “Talkin' Tropics”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: Hypercane_Kyle, RomP and 16 guests