2024 EPAC Season
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- Category5Kaiju
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Re: 2024 EPAC Season
The Atlantic is shut down, but it's surreal seeing how badly this basin is struggling to produce a single named storm, let alone any appreciable system. Given our trend towards cold ENSO, I think the EPAC is really starting to run out of time to produce significant levels of activity before the Atlantic really begins to dominate.
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- cycloneye
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Re: 2024 EPAC Season
A new AOI.

South of Southern Mexico:
An area of low pressure is likely to form this weekend a few
hundred miles south of the coast of southern Mexico. Some
slow development of this system is possible early next week while
it moves westward to west-northwestward at 10-15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.
An area of low pressure is likely to form this weekend a few
hundred miles south of the coast of southern Mexico. Some
slow development of this system is possible early next week while
it moves westward to west-northwestward at 10-15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

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- AnnularCane
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Re: 2024 EPAC Season
Wonder what percentage this one will get to before it starts to fade away? 

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- Hurricane2022
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Re: 2024 EPAC Season
AnnularCane wrote:Wonder what percentage this one will get to before it starts to fade away?
40%. But now is already at 30%

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- Category5Kaiju
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Re: 2024 EPAC Season
I know a lot of weather trackers tend to be Atlantic-focused, but I wonder if there's any weather-watching group out there that loves to mainly watch the EPAC. I want to see their reactions right now 

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2024 EPAC Season
The eastern pacific is completely screwed. This might be the lowest number of storms in the satellite period of record.
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Re: 2024 EPAC Season
Category5Kaiju wrote:I know a lot of weather trackers tend to be Atlantic-focused, but I wonder if there's any weather-watching group out there that loves to mainly watch the EPAC. I want to see their reactions right now
It's not a competition, you know.
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- Kingarabian
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Re: 2024 EPAC Season
AnnularCane wrote:Wonder what percentage this one will get to before it starts to fade away?
70-80%. Has a much better chance as La Nina years EPAC TCG is favored mostly off of Mexico.
Last edited by Kingarabian on Tue Jul 16, 2024 8:32 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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- Kingarabian
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Re: 2024 EPAC Season
Category5Kaiju wrote:I know a lot of weather trackers tend to be Atlantic-focused, but I wonder if there's any weather-watching group out there that loves to mainly watch the EPAC. I want to see their reactions right now
The thing is, ENSO is still favorable and while the PDO is negative there's still some positive anomalies off of NWAmerica.
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- cycloneye
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Re: 2024 EPAC Season
EPAC keeps digging a hole of records in a negative way. Here is about ACE.
https://x.com/OSUWXGUY/status/1813537033006244251
https://x.com/OSUWXGUY/status/1813537033006244251
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- cycloneye
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Re: 2024 EPAC Season
And more. By how things are going, it may not pass 50 ACE.
https://x.com/philklotzbach/status/1813569386915209554
https://x.com/philklotzbach/status/1813569386915209554
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- Kingarabian
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Re: 2024 EPAC Season
EPAC seasons following strong El Nino's have some sort of near average activity. For example, 1998 had above average hurricane/major hurricanes. 2016 was very active. 2024 is interesting for sure.
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Re: 2024 EPAC Season
Kingarabian wrote:EPAC seasons following strong El Nino's have some sort of near average activity. For example, 1998 had above average hurricane/major hurricanes. 2016 was very active. 2024 is interesting for sure.
2010 came off a strong el nino as well and featured record inactivity, what's happening with 2024 isn't completely without precedent.
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- weeniepatrol
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Re: 2024 EPAC Season
WeatherBoy2000 wrote:Kingarabian wrote:EPAC seasons following strong El Nino's have some sort of near average activity. For example, 1998 had above average hurricane/major hurricanes. 2016 was very active. 2024 is interesting for sure.
2010 came off a strong el nino as well and featured record inactivity, what's happening with 2024 isn't completely without precedent.
2010's sst configuration was spatially a bit different, I believe. However it also had a category 5 to open the season THEN record inactivity. We didn't even get that this year... if this MJO in the next couple weeks doesn't do the trick, nothing will IMO.
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Re: 2024 EPAC Season
weeniepatrol wrote:WeatherBoy2000 wrote:Kingarabian wrote:EPAC seasons following strong El Nino's have some sort of near average activity. For example, 1998 had above average hurricane/major hurricanes. 2016 was very active. 2024 is interesting for sure.
2010 came off a strong el nino as well and featured record inactivity, what's happening with 2024 isn't completely without precedent.
2010's sst configuration was spatially a bit different, I believe. However it also had a category 5 to open the season THEN record inactivity. We didn't even get that this year... if this MJO in the next couple weeks doesn't do the trick, nothing will IMO.
I was just saying that very inactive post el nino seasons aren't without precedent, I'd argue that 2024 is more comparable to 2010 than to 1998 or 2016. 1998 and 2016 had +pdos and were super el ninos while the 2023 el nino was more comparable to 2009-2010 in strength along with a having a -pdo.
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- Kingarabian
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Re: 2024 EPAC Season
WeatherBoy2000 wrote:Kingarabian wrote:EPAC seasons following strong El Nino's have some sort of near average activity. For example, 1998 had above average hurricane/major hurricanes. 2016 was very active. 2024 is interesting for sure.
2010 came off a strong el nino as well and featured record inactivity, what's happening with 2024 isn't completely without precedent.
2010 and 2024 don't compare much as the preceding El Nino's don't match amplitude wise and had different configurations. For example, the 2009-10 El Nino quickly transitioned to La Nina with AMJ and MJJ both negative. 2024's AMJ and MJJ ONI will be positive. And based on the SOI, the Walker cell is much weaker in 2024 through July compared to 2010.
And as mentioned above, 2010 had 3 serious hurricanes before July. We may enter August without a hurricane and only one short lived TS.
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- Yellow Evan
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Re: 2024 EPAC Season
Guidance support for activity in the next 10 days has dropped somehow. Unbelievable.
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- cycloneye
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Re: 2024 EPAC Season
Well, EPAC keeps inactive and looks like it will continue for a while. The AOI NHC has been mentioning with 20% now drops to 10%.
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Fri Jul 19 2024
For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:
1. South of Southern Mexico:
An area of low pressure could form by early next week a few hundred
miles south of the coast of southern Mexico. Development, if any, of
this system would be slow to occur while it moves west-northwestward
at 10 to 15 mph during the middle and latter parts of next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.
Forecaster Reinhart
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Fri Jul 19 2024
For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:
1. South of Southern Mexico:
An area of low pressure could form by early next week a few hundred
miles south of the coast of southern Mexico. Development, if any, of
this system would be slow to occur while it moves west-northwestward
at 10 to 15 mph during the middle and latter parts of next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.
Forecaster Reinhart
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- Yellow Evan
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Re: 2024 EPAC Season
18z GFS actually has a realistic solution for a compact TC near 120W forming early next week that ensembles have mostly backed off on.
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- cycloneye
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Re: 2024 EPAC Season
I think the basin is ready to rumble with maybe 2-3 systems as the peak of the season is almost here and the kelvin wave plus mjo will help.


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