2024 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

[Teban54]

 https://x.com/dmorris9661/status/1811351236169331100


 https://x.com/dmorris9661/status/1811351241139618226

[kevin]

Euro ensemble shows a few MDR members at the very end of the run. Nothing impressive for now, but who knows it could be one more storm near the end of the month.

[chaser1]

Euro ensemble shows a few MDR members at the very end of the run. Nothing impressive for now, but who knows it could be one more storm near the end of the month.

https://i.imgur.com/Dve6Fwd.png

I think that the Euro.... begin the "Euro", it is by nature far less apt to pick up on subtle or smaller scale mid to long range tropical disturbances. Point being that I think that the number of ensemble members potentially reflecting possible development is immaterial (compared to GFS ensemble). On the other hand, basic Euro "run-to-run" ensemble comparisons at least provide the benefit of any change in number of ensemble members that might be sniffing out possible development. Still, there's been times where the GFS or CMC (operational model or ensemble members) have consistently suggested mid to long term development and the Euro was just out to lunch (until suddenly coming alive but late to the party)

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Seeing some hint of activity on the GFS, a sharp wave axis present by the Florida Keys by 168 hours. It's been persistently shown on the last few runs. Could be something if other models latch on to it.

[Category5Kaiju]

Hmm, interesting. Latest CMC operational and ECMWF ensembles show slight hints of an MDR system trying to get going by the very end of this month

[wxman57]

Finally had full power restored Monday afternoon and internet back at home yesterday. No damage, except to the side fence. I like the look of the models through the end of the month. We could use a quiet next few weeks. Unfortunately, the quiet won't last forever. By the second week of August things should heat up again. The next hurricane can go somewhere else besides Houston, where we still have about 52,000 out of power and 2.2 million restored since last Monday.

[Nimbus]

Finally had full power restored Monday afternoon and internet back at home yesterday. No damage, except to the side fence. I like the look of the models through the end of the month. We could use a quiet next few weeks. Unfortunately, the quiet won't last forever. By the second week of August things should heat up again. The next hurricane can go somewhere else besides Houston, where we still have about 52,000 out of power and 2.2 million restored since last Monday.

Glad you are OK!
How did the roof tiles hold up with the cat 1 winds in your area?
Had to get up on the roof with some Loctite PL after winds like that here..

[jasons2k]

Finally had full power restored Monday afternoon and internet back at home yesterday. No damage, except to the side fence. I like the look of the models through the end of the month. We could use a quiet next few weeks. Unfortunately, the quiet won't last forever. By the second week of August things should heat up again. The next hurricane can go somewhere else besides Houston, where we still have about 52,000 out of power and 2.2 million restored since last Monday.

Glad you are OK!
How did the roof tiles hold up with the cat 1 winds in your area?
Had to get up on the roof with some Loctite PL after winds like that here..

I can tell you it highly depends on the roof. Most roofs in my area have been replaced with architectural shingles and I didn’t see any roof damage at all on those.

Several houses in a nearby neighborhood still have the builder-grade flat tab shingles that are almost 20 years old. Those houses all lost a lot of shingles and will need new roofs.

[toad strangler]

Finally had full power restored Monday afternoon and internet back at home yesterday. No damage, except to the side fence. I like the look of the models through the end of the month. We could use a quiet next few weeks. Unfortunately, the quiet won't last forever. By the second week of August things should heat up again. The next hurricane can go somewhere else besides Houston, where we still have about 52,000 out of power and 2.2 million restored since last Monday.

Glad you are OK!
How did the roof tiles hold up with the cat 1 winds in your area?
Had to get up on the roof with some Loctite PL after winds like that here..

I can tell you it highly depends on the roof. Most roofs in my area have been replaced with architectural shingles and I didn’t see any roof damage at all on those.

Several houses in a nearby neighborhood still have the builder-grade flat tab shingles that are almost 20 years old. Those houses all lost a lot of shingles and will need new roofs.

It's all about the fasteners. Asphalt shingles are what they are. 3 tab or dimensional. The older they are the more brittle they become regardless of type. What matters the most are the fasteners and sheathing. Where I live it is illegal to use smooth shank nails anymore. Must be ring shank. Half nail half screw. They make a huge difference as long as the sheathing is real CDX plywood. Not flake board. Lot's of factors to consider. But RING SHANK NAILS reign supreme!

Nada on the GFS. But that's to be expected right now I suppose.

[SFLcane]

Finally had full power restored Monday afternoon and internet back at home yesterday. No damage, except to the side fence. I like the look of the models through the end of the month. We could use a quiet next few weeks. Unfortunately, the quiet won't last forever. By the second week of August things should heat up again. The next hurricane can go somewhere else besides Houston, where we still have about 52,000 out of power and 2.2 million restored since last Monday.

Not to shabby for a Cat 1...

Nothing like an intensifying TC moving onshore.

[MEANINGLESS_NUMBERS]

Finally had full power restored Monday afternoon and internet back at home yesterday. No damage, except to the side fence. I like the look of the models through the end of the month. We could use a quiet next few weeks. Unfortunately, the quiet won't last forever. By the second week of August things should heat up again. The next hurricane can go somewhere else besides Houston, where we still have about 52,000 out of power and 2.2 million restored since last Monday.

Not to shabby for a Cat 1...

Nothing like an intensifying TC moving onshore.

I think it says more about the lack of resilience in the Texas power grid, to be honest.

[SFLcane]

Finally had full power restored Monday afternoon and internet back at home yesterday. No damage, except to the side fence. I like the look of the models through the end of the month. We could use a quiet next few weeks. Unfortunately, the quiet won't last forever. By the second week of August things should heat up again. The next hurricane can go somewhere else besides Houston, where we still have about 52,000 out of power and 2.2 million restored since last Monday.

Not to shabby for a Cat 1...

Nothing like an intensifying TC moving onshore.

I think it says more about the lack of resilience in the Texas power grid, to be honest.

Well sure i agree..

To much attention is based on categories these days every tc brings hazards. Water has been the number 1 killer the last 10-12 yrs

[Steve]

The goat, the ICON, shows a weak closed low the last several frames of its 12z run. Levi only has the 00z and 12z runs to 7 1/2 days (5 days for 06 and 18z).

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 71812&fh=6

[floridasun]

The goat, the ICON, shows a weak closed low the last several frames of its 12z run. Levi only has the 00z and 12z runs to 7 1/2 days (5 days for 06 and 18z).
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 806&fh=114
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 71812&fh=6

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf&region=atl&pkg=mslp_pcpn&runtime=2024071806&fh=78 have area weak low almost same area
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 1812&fh=63 show weak low too almost same area NAVGEM show almost not thing eps show something forming that area too next week https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 806&fh=114

[floridasun]

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 2&fh=0show too something trying form area that between Africa and windwards

[Steve]

The goat, the ICON, shows a weak closed low the last several frames of its 12z run. Levi only has the 00z and 12z runs to 7 1/2 days (5 days for 06 and 18z).
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 806&fh=114
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 71812&fh=6

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf&region=atl&pkg=mslp_pcpn&runtime=2024071806&fh=78 have area weak low almost same area
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 1812&fh=63 show weak low too almost same area NAVGEM show almost not thing eps show something forming that area too next week https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 806&fh=114

Hey sun. Glad to see you. Nothing but love baby. Let’s hope we both get spared in 2024. But it’s looking like this is going to be a sketchy year for many of us.

[floridasun]

The goat, the ICON, shows a weak closed low the last several frames of its 12z run. Levi only has the 00z and 12z runs to 7 1/2 days (5 days for 06 and 18z).
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 806&fh=114
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 71812&fh=6

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf&region=atl&pkg=mslp_pcpn&runtime=2024071806&fh=78 have area weak low almost same area
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 1812&fh=63 show weak low too almost same area NAVGEM show almost not thing eps show something forming that area too next week https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 806&fh=114

Hey sun. Glad to see you. Nothing but love baby. Let’s hope we both get spared in 2024. But it’s looking like this is going to be a sketchy year for many of us.

was having kidney tranplant may1 so was way from comp and sister was using comp room for her job was in hospital for two week i now 3month of surgery of kidney going 4 months next week

[Steve]

Best to you. You are always one of my favorite posters. Hope it goes A+ for you.

[weeniepatrol]

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf&region=atl&pkg=mslp_pcpn&runtime=2024071806&fh=78 have area weak low almost same area
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 1812&fh=63 show weak low too almost same area NAVGEM show almost not thing eps show something forming that area too next week https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 806&fh=114

Hey sun. Glad to see you. Nothing but love baby. Let’s hope we both get spared in 2024. But it’s looking like this is going to be a sketchy year for many of us.

was having kidney tranplant may1 so was way from comp and sister was using comp room for her job was in hospital for two week i now 3month of surgery of kidney going 4 months next week

Hey floridasun. I hope you have recovered well and continue to do so. That's some serious business. The last thing you need to deal with is a hurr so I'm seriously praying for you to be safe this season!!

[cheezyWXguy]

12z gefs might actually be starting to show a signal, after showing nothing for so long. Hint of something near Central America about a week out, then gets a little stronger as it moves north toward the Yucatán channel. Probably erroneous at this point, but it’s still something