Texas Summer 2024

[Stratton23]

The euro doesnt agree with this, it tracks the low in land

[Stratton23]

Also, if its any good news, I don’t foresee a big heat ridge anytime soon, we should dry out next week, but ensembles agree that the heat ridge will be centered over NW colorado, they keep texas near normal to slightly below normal temperature wise all the way through august 7th or so, the northern or high plains of the US is really where the brutal heat looks to be concentrated, texas might just get lucky this summer with the heat ridge possibly never building over the state entirely

[Edwards Limestone]

Nice 2.76" over Junction last 3 hours. Although looks like maybe EWX is expecting possible shift later in the week to a bit farther East of Central Texas. I noticed precip chances in Austin down a bit later.

1-2" widespread precip over central TX still great for July but in no way a "drought buster" like EWX was alluding to a couple of days ago.

[Cpv17]

Nice 2.76" over Junction last 3 hours. Although looks like maybe EWX is expecting possible shift later in the week to a bit farther East of Central Texas. I noticed precip chances in Austin down a bit later.

https://media.wnyc.org/i/800/0/c/85/1/its-the-great-pumpkin-charlie-brown-footbal-gag.png

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2024072212/gfs_apcpn_scus_14.png

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2024072206/ecmwf_apcpn_scus_30.png

1-2" widespread precip over central TX still great for July but in no way a "drought buster" like EWX was alluding to a couple of days ago.

Yep, exactly! Seems like every big rain event disappears for you guys once it gets close. It’s because the coastal low is robbing all the rain from you guys instead of spreading it out over a larger area.

[weatherdude1108]

One of the weather mets here, Anthony Tomasco mentioned a reduction in rain on Wednesday through about Friday because of a Saharan dust plume. He showed it on satellite. He said it would tend to dry it out some but still rain, but kind of rain "mud". Yucky. Then back to higher chances this weekend once the dust settles out. He didn't mention the coastal low, though that was this morning's forecast, so probably changed again. The lakes need several inches upstream.

I had enough to flood my backyard for a bit to at least soak in.

[Stratton23]

the NAM also has the low moving inland like the euro

[weatherdude1108]

the NAM also has the low moving inland like the euro

Hi pressure to the east stearing it this way? Just guessing.

[rwfromkansas]

Saharan dust stopping the rain? Seems a bit like pseudoscience.

All I got was .40 here for the rainy pattern.

[Kirby68]

Good storm in Comal county right now. Radar estimate shows up to 3 inches in the western part of the county. This is falling in the watershed for Canyon Lake, which has been hit hard by the drought.

[South Texas Storms]

Really good drought denting rain event ongoing across the Hill Country this morning. Been way too long since we've seen a slow-moving large complex of showers and thunderstorms out there.

[utpmg]

so far, so good, up to 5” in the watershed. Mostly in the Llano River basin which will feed lake Travis. But some more elsewhere. Also some a bit too far south for us, but helping out that last bit of extreme drought area south of Kerrville. Only a million acre-ft to go!
(Had about 1/4" in my gauge overnight in East Austin.)

[utpmg]

Actually looking like maybe even more than that, looks like a little rain bomb between Junction and Sonora at the headwaters of the Llano River, up to 8" over three days.

[txtwister78]

Finally! As South Texas Storms mentioned, widespread beneficial rainfall (4-6 inches) across areas of the southern Hill Country/Edwards Plateau region that really need it the most with more falling currently.

Flash Flood Watch is now out including Bexar County.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Some models continue to hint at a nationwide heat wave kicking off the beginning of August. 600 dm centered right over my head in CO.

[txtwister78]

 https://x.com/NWSSanAntonio/status/1815781987128660165

[Edwards Limestone]

Some really impressive totals out near Medina Lake of 7-8" and in the upper Guadalupe watershed of 8-10". Widespread 3-5" all across the southern Hill Country, including a nice 4-5" blob just west of Canyon Lake...

I've recorded 4.22" of liquid gold at my house 5 mi south of Canyon Lake so far.

Should really help fill up the lakes down here!!! Lucy is taking the day off...

[Edwards Limestone]

 https://x.com/NWSSanAntonio/status/1815796262610108874

[Edwards Limestone]

[url]https://water.noaa.gov/state/TX#@=-98.3833333,29.8602778,8.4051641&b=topographic&g=obsFcst,1!1!1!1!1!1!1!1!1!1!1!1!1!1!1!0!0!0!0!0,0.5,1!1!1!1!0,0,0&ab=0,0,#D94B4A,1,1,1,#cccccc,1,0,0,#B243B1,1,0,0,#98E09A,1&a=hydrologic,0.35&s=0,0,0.9,0.9&n=false,#72afe9,0.9,0,0.9,0,0.9&p=false,0.75,0,7,0,1,2024,7,23,0&d=0,0,1,1,1,1,1,1,#006EFF,1,#006EFF,1,#006EFF&q=state%3ATX[/url]

[DallasAg]

Some models continue to hint at a nationwide heat wave kicking off the beginning of August. 600 dm centered right over my head in CO.

CPC seems to be picking up on this as well. Highlighting a high risk of excessive heat July 31- Aug 4 for southern KS into central OK. You'd think eventually it'll be Texas' turn. Today is the first day climatologically that DFW maxes out at 97 for the average daily high. 23 days of this until it starts to drop.

[Stratton23]

The core of the heat in regards to the ridge rebuilding back in again should be mainly focused over the northern us and highplains, with mainly mid -upper 90’s for texas, i think texas lucks out again