EPAC: BUD - Post-Tropical
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- weeniepatrol
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Re: EPAC: BUD - Tropical Storm
IcyTundra wrote:Going to be short lived like Aletta but at least 2024 won't break 1972's record of the latest 2nd named storm on record.
Note that Bud is still the latest 02E (i.e. latest 2nd tropical cyclone including depressions) on record. 1972 had two TDs in late June and early July.
(Though you can argue that 92E may have been designated a TD with technology available in 1972.)
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Re: EPAC: BUD - Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm Bud Discussion Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP022024
200 AM MST Thu Jul 25 2024
Bud continues to show a sheared cloud pattern this morning, with
the low-level center near the eastern edge of the main area of deep
convection. Recent ASCAT overpasses showed reliable-looking 35-40
kt winds northwest of the the center just north of the strongest
convection, and based on these the initial intensity is increased
to 40 kt. This intensity is also supported by other recent
satellite intensity estimates of 35-40 kt.
The initial motion is a little slower than before, 295/10 kt. The
cyclone should turn westward over the next 12-24 h as it moves
along the southern periphery of a low- to mid-level ridge centered
over the southwestern United States and northwestern Mexico.
Later, as the system weakens, a southwestward turn is forecast as
the shallow vortex becomes steered by the low-level trade wind
flow. The track guidance has shifted a bit to the north since the
last advisory, and the new forecast track is moved northward as
well. However, the new track is still to the south of the consensus
models.
Continued moderate shear and some nearby drier air are likely to
prevent additional strengthening even though the cyclone is
forecast to stay over relatively warm water. In addition, after
12 h Bud is expected to move into an area of upper-level
convergence. This should make it more difficult for the system to
keep producing convection, and the latest GFS and ECMWF simulated
satellite imagery suggest the convection will dissipate in 24 h or
less. Based on this and the intensity guidance, the new intensity
forecast calls for Bud to weaken, with the system becoming a
depression in 24 h and a remnant low by 36 h. The remnant low is
forecast to dissipate completely in 60-72 h in agreement with
global model guidance.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 25/0900Z 17.9N 114.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 25/1800Z 18.1N 115.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 26/0600Z 18.2N 117.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 26/1800Z 18.1N 118.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 27/0600Z 17.7N 120.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 27/1800Z 17.2N 121.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 28/0600Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Beven
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP022024
200 AM MST Thu Jul 25 2024
Bud continues to show a sheared cloud pattern this morning, with
the low-level center near the eastern edge of the main area of deep
convection. Recent ASCAT overpasses showed reliable-looking 35-40
kt winds northwest of the the center just north of the strongest
convection, and based on these the initial intensity is increased
to 40 kt. This intensity is also supported by other recent
satellite intensity estimates of 35-40 kt.
The initial motion is a little slower than before, 295/10 kt. The
cyclone should turn westward over the next 12-24 h as it moves
along the southern periphery of a low- to mid-level ridge centered
over the southwestern United States and northwestern Mexico.
Later, as the system weakens, a southwestward turn is forecast as
the shallow vortex becomes steered by the low-level trade wind
flow. The track guidance has shifted a bit to the north since the
last advisory, and the new forecast track is moved northward as
well. However, the new track is still to the south of the consensus
models.
Continued moderate shear and some nearby drier air are likely to
prevent additional strengthening even though the cyclone is
forecast to stay over relatively warm water. In addition, after
12 h Bud is expected to move into an area of upper-level
convergence. This should make it more difficult for the system to
keep producing convection, and the latest GFS and ECMWF simulated
satellite imagery suggest the convection will dissipate in 24 h or
less. Based on this and the intensity guidance, the new intensity
forecast calls for Bud to weaken, with the system becoming a
depression in 24 h and a remnant low by 36 h. The remnant low is
forecast to dissipate completely in 60-72 h in agreement with
global model guidance.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 25/0900Z 17.9N 114.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 25/1800Z 18.1N 115.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 26/0600Z 18.2N 117.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 26/1800Z 18.1N 118.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 27/0600Z 17.7N 120.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 27/1800Z 17.2N 121.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 28/0600Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Beven
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Re: EPAC: BUD - Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm Bud Special Discussion Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP022024
430 AM PDT Thu Jul 25 2024
Recent surface observations from the Mexican Navy station on Isla
Clarion reported sustained winds of 49 kt with a pressure of 1004
mb as Bud passed to the south of the station. Given that ASCAT
from a few hours ago showed vectors as high as 44 kt, the
observations from the island are consistent.
The only change to the NHC forecast is to increase the forecast
wind speed through the 24-hour point, due to the higher initial
intensity. The observations from Isla Clarion also suggest the
gust factor is a little higher than normal, and this is indicated
in the Forecast/Advisory.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 25/1130Z 18.0N 115.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 25/1800Z 18.1N 115.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 26/0600Z 18.2N 117.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 26/1800Z 18.1N 118.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 27/0600Z 17.7N 120.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 27/1800Z 17.2N 121.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 28/0600Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Hagen/Berg
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP022024
430 AM PDT Thu Jul 25 2024
Recent surface observations from the Mexican Navy station on Isla
Clarion reported sustained winds of 49 kt with a pressure of 1004
mb as Bud passed to the south of the station. Given that ASCAT
from a few hours ago showed vectors as high as 44 kt, the
observations from the island are consistent.
The only change to the NHC forecast is to increase the forecast
wind speed through the 24-hour point, due to the higher initial
intensity. The observations from Isla Clarion also suggest the
gust factor is a little higher than normal, and this is indicated
in the Forecast/Advisory.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 25/1130Z 18.0N 115.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 25/1800Z 18.1N 115.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 26/0600Z 18.2N 117.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 26/1800Z 18.1N 118.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 27/0600Z 17.7N 120.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 27/1800Z 17.2N 121.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 28/0600Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Hagen/Berg
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- AnnularCane
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Re: EPAC: BUD - Tropical Storm
Not bad for the EPAC this year. 

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Re: EPAC: BUD - Tropical Storm
You can justify 55 knots based on the obs and earlier ASCAT tbh because the obs were on the north side and ASCAT had the strongest winds in the southwest.
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Re: EPAC: BUD - Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm Bud Discussion Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP022024
800 AM PDT Thu Jul 25 2024
Since the time of the special advisory issued earlier this morning,
the organization of Bud on satellite imagery has not changed much.
The moderate easterly shear that had been affecting the cyclone
appears to have diminished slightly. This has allowed the
low-level center to be located underneath the central convective
area. The latest subjective intensity estimate from TAFB is 45 kt,
while some of the University of Wisconsin-CIMSS objective estimates
have also been around 45 kt. Given the 49-kt surface observation
from Isla Clarion at 0930 UTC this morning, the initial intensity is
held at 50 kt for this advisory.
There have not been any significant changes to the general synoptic
steering pattern. A low- to mid-level ridge located to the north
of Bud will steer the cyclone generally westward at a similar
forward speed for the next 24 h. As the cyclone weakens and
becomes shallower, it should turn towards the west-southwest and
decelerate. The guidance has shifted notably north and faster with
this cycle. The new NHC track forecast is adjusted about midway
between the previous NHC forecast and the latest consensus track
aids.
As for the intensity forecast, Bud should be traversing sea-surface
temperatures of around 26.5-27C over the next day or two, which is
slightly cooler than the 28C waters that Bud is over currently.
The vertical wind shear should be relatively low over the next
couple of days. Bud will be gradually moving into a slightly drier
airmass. The latest dynamical and hurricane intensity models weaken
Bud more quickly than the statistical intensity guidance, and the
NHC forecast splits the difference and is close to the intensity
consensus. This new NHC intensity forecast is higher than the
previous one and keeps Bud a tropical storm a bit longer. Given
that the global models show Bud becoming a remnant low rather
quickly despite relatively favorable environmental conditions, the
intensity forecast confidence is a bit lower than average during the
first 48 h of the forecast. After that time, confidence is higher
that the cyclone will be significantly weakening.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 25/1500Z 18.3N 115.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 26/0000Z 18.5N 117.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 26/1200Z 18.6N 118.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 27/0000Z 18.4N 120.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 27/1200Z 18.2N 121.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 28/0000Z 17.9N 122.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 28/1200Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Hagen/Berg
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP022024
800 AM PDT Thu Jul 25 2024
Since the time of the special advisory issued earlier this morning,
the organization of Bud on satellite imagery has not changed much.
The moderate easterly shear that had been affecting the cyclone
appears to have diminished slightly. This has allowed the
low-level center to be located underneath the central convective
area. The latest subjective intensity estimate from TAFB is 45 kt,
while some of the University of Wisconsin-CIMSS objective estimates
have also been around 45 kt. Given the 49-kt surface observation
from Isla Clarion at 0930 UTC this morning, the initial intensity is
held at 50 kt for this advisory.
There have not been any significant changes to the general synoptic
steering pattern. A low- to mid-level ridge located to the north
of Bud will steer the cyclone generally westward at a similar
forward speed for the next 24 h. As the cyclone weakens and
becomes shallower, it should turn towards the west-southwest and
decelerate. The guidance has shifted notably north and faster with
this cycle. The new NHC track forecast is adjusted about midway
between the previous NHC forecast and the latest consensus track
aids.
As for the intensity forecast, Bud should be traversing sea-surface
temperatures of around 26.5-27C over the next day or two, which is
slightly cooler than the 28C waters that Bud is over currently.
The vertical wind shear should be relatively low over the next
couple of days. Bud will be gradually moving into a slightly drier
airmass. The latest dynamical and hurricane intensity models weaken
Bud more quickly than the statistical intensity guidance, and the
NHC forecast splits the difference and is close to the intensity
consensus. This new NHC intensity forecast is higher than the
previous one and keeps Bud a tropical storm a bit longer. Given
that the global models show Bud becoming a remnant low rather
quickly despite relatively favorable environmental conditions, the
intensity forecast confidence is a bit lower than average during the
first 48 h of the forecast. After that time, confidence is higher
that the cyclone will be significantly weakening.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 25/1500Z 18.3N 115.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 26/0000Z 18.5N 117.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 26/1200Z 18.6N 118.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 27/0000Z 18.4N 120.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 27/1200Z 18.2N 121.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 28/0000Z 17.9N 122.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 28/1200Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Hagen/Berg
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- Kingarabian
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Re: EPAC: BUD - Tropical Storm
Could easily become a hurricane if easterly shear just relaxes a bit. Will likely run out of time.
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Re: EPAC: BUD - Tropical Storm
I noticed both Bud and Aletta were small/meek systems in a similar spot.
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Re: EPAC: BUD - Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm Bud Discussion Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP022024
200 PM PDT Thu Jul 25 2024
Satellite imagery indicates that Bud continues to maintain its
intensity. The vertical wind shear has clearly weakened over the
past day or so, as a pair of recent 1659 and 1753 UTC ASCAT passes
indicate that the center is well embedded underneath the central
convective area. Based on the ASCAT data and the latest satellite
intensity estimates, the intensity is held at 50 kt for this
advisory.
A low- to mid-level ridge located to the north of Bud will steer the
cyclone generally westward at a similar forward speed for the next
24 h. As the cyclone weakens and becomes shallower, it should turn
towards the west-southwest and decelerate. The new NHC forecast
has again been adjusted a bit to the north and faster to the west,
following the trend in the guidance, but the NHC forecast is still
to the southeast of the latest consensus models.
As Bud traverses sea-surface temperatures of around 27C over the
next day or two, the vertical wind shear should remain relatively
low. The SHIPS guidance suggests that Bud is moving into a stable
airmass, which should cause the cyclone to begin weakening by
tonight or on Friday. No significant changes have been made to the
previous NHC intensity forecast, which still lies near the
intensity consensus, above the weaker dynamical model guidance, and
below the stronger statistical guidance. Bud is forecast to become
a remnant low on Saturday and dissipate on Sunday.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 25/2100Z 18.4N 117.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 26/0600Z 18.6N 118.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 26/1800Z 18.7N 120.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 27/0600Z 18.6N 121.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 27/1800Z 18.4N 122.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 28/0600Z 18.1N 124.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 28/1800Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Hagen/Berg
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP022024
200 PM PDT Thu Jul 25 2024
Satellite imagery indicates that Bud continues to maintain its
intensity. The vertical wind shear has clearly weakened over the
past day or so, as a pair of recent 1659 and 1753 UTC ASCAT passes
indicate that the center is well embedded underneath the central
convective area. Based on the ASCAT data and the latest satellite
intensity estimates, the intensity is held at 50 kt for this
advisory.
A low- to mid-level ridge located to the north of Bud will steer the
cyclone generally westward at a similar forward speed for the next
24 h. As the cyclone weakens and becomes shallower, it should turn
towards the west-southwest and decelerate. The new NHC forecast
has again been adjusted a bit to the north and faster to the west,
following the trend in the guidance, but the NHC forecast is still
to the southeast of the latest consensus models.
As Bud traverses sea-surface temperatures of around 27C over the
next day or two, the vertical wind shear should remain relatively
low. The SHIPS guidance suggests that Bud is moving into a stable
airmass, which should cause the cyclone to begin weakening by
tonight or on Friday. No significant changes have been made to the
previous NHC intensity forecast, which still lies near the
intensity consensus, above the weaker dynamical model guidance, and
below the stronger statistical guidance. Bud is forecast to become
a remnant low on Saturday and dissipate on Sunday.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 25/2100Z 18.4N 117.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 26/0600Z 18.6N 118.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 26/1800Z 18.7N 120.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 27/0600Z 18.6N 121.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 27/1800Z 18.4N 122.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 28/0600Z 18.1N 124.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 28/1800Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Hagen/Berg
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Re: EPAC: BUD - Tropical Storm

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I am NOT a professional meteorologist, so take all of my posts with a grain of salt. My opinions are mine and mine alone.
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Re: EPAC: BUD - Tropical Storm
Bye, but at least it got 1.3 ACE.

Tropical Storm Bud Discussion Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP022024
800 AM PDT Fri Jul 26 2024
Bud has been devoid of any organized convection since about 03
UTC. The low-level circulation is exposed in latest GOES-18
satellite imagery. If the cyclone is unable to produce convection
soon, it is in danger of degenerating to a post-tropical cyclone
later today or tonight. Subjective and objective satellite intensity
estimates range between 25-35 kt, the initial intensity is held at
35 kt for this advisory, although that may be generous.
Cooler waters and a drier, more stable airmass along Bud's track do
not bode well for its future as a tropical cyclone. While some
intermittent bursts of convection cannot be ruled out during the
next day or so, the overall environment does not appear conducive
for Bud to generate persistent organized convection going forward.
The updated forecast shows Bud weakening into a post-tropical
remnant low in 12 h, but this could occur even sooner if current
trends continue.
The initial motion is now 270/9 kt. Bud is being steered along the
south side of a low- to mid-level subtropical ridge, and the system
should move generally westward today. As we move into the weekend,
Bud or its remnants should turn west-southwestward in the low-level
trade wind flow. The NHC forecast track is fairly similar to the
previous one, nudged slightly southward towards the HCCA and other
consensus aids.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 26/1500Z 19.1N 119.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 27/0000Z 19.2N 121.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 27/1200Z 19.0N 122.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 28/0000Z 18.6N 124.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 28/1200Z 18.2N 126.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 29/0000Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Kelly
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP022024
800 AM PDT Fri Jul 26 2024
Bud has been devoid of any organized convection since about 03
UTC. The low-level circulation is exposed in latest GOES-18
satellite imagery. If the cyclone is unable to produce convection
soon, it is in danger of degenerating to a post-tropical cyclone
later today or tonight. Subjective and objective satellite intensity
estimates range between 25-35 kt, the initial intensity is held at
35 kt for this advisory, although that may be generous.
Cooler waters and a drier, more stable airmass along Bud's track do
not bode well for its future as a tropical cyclone. While some
intermittent bursts of convection cannot be ruled out during the
next day or so, the overall environment does not appear conducive
for Bud to generate persistent organized convection going forward.
The updated forecast shows Bud weakening into a post-tropical
remnant low in 12 h, but this could occur even sooner if current
trends continue.
The initial motion is now 270/9 kt. Bud is being steered along the
south side of a low- to mid-level subtropical ridge, and the system
should move generally westward today. As we move into the weekend,
Bud or its remnants should turn west-southwestward in the low-level
trade wind flow. The NHC forecast track is fairly similar to the
previous one, nudged slightly southward towards the HCCA and other
consensus aids.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 26/1500Z 19.1N 119.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 27/0000Z 19.2N 121.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 27/1200Z 19.0N 122.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 28/0000Z 18.6N 124.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 28/1200Z 18.2N 126.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 29/0000Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Kelly
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Re: EPAC: BUD - Tropical Storm
02E BUD 240726 1800 19.2N 120.1W EPAC 30 1008
Hey, at least got 1.4 ACE.

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Re: EPAC: BUD - Tropical Storm
...BUD BECOMES A POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW...
...THIS IS THE LAST NHC ADVISORY..
https://x.com/philklotzbach/status/1816939420370493871
...THIS IS THE LAST NHC ADVISORY..
https://x.com/philklotzbach/status/1816939420370493871
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- galaxy401
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Re: EPAC: BUD - Post-Tropical
The past few Buds have all been strong hurricanes. This one had no chance in that regard.
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Got my eyes on moving right into Hurricane Alley: Florida.
Re: EPAC: BUD - Post-Tropical
galaxy401 wrote:The past few Buds have all been strong hurricanes. This one had no chance in that regard.
More like a Dud
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