2024 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

[Nimbus]

Euro and EPS basically drops development this run.

Eh I'm not so sure about that, to me it looks like half of the EPS members still keep the system forming north of the Greater Antilles while the other half show a weaker, more southerly system holding off on development until it hits the western Caribbean and interacting with a CAG-type setup possibly? In my experience it's pretty typical for the models to take a few days to calibrate once a potential TC comes off of Africa, so we should have a much better idea about the forecast in another day or two.

https://i.ibb.co/Dkj3j6p/Screen-Shot-2024-07-25-at-3-27-31-AM.png

They are just spreading the probability out with this run split.
Weaker / stronger storm possibilities.

[jlauderdal]

Euro and EPS basically drops development this run.

Eh I'm not so sure about that, to me it looks like half of the EPS members still keep the system forming north of the Greater Antilles while the other half show a weaker, more southerly system holding off on development until it hits the western Caribbean and interacting with a CAG-type setup possibly? In my experience it's pretty typical for the models to take a few days to calibrate once a potential TC comes off of Africa, so we should have a much better idea about the forecast in another day or two.

https://i.ibb.co/Dkj3j6p/Screen-Shot-2024-07-25-at-3-27-31-AM.png

Typical stronger north, weaker south. If this one doesn't go, August 8th and beyond looks very favorable. The stars need to line up for hurricane development.

[toad strangler]

Euro and EPS basically drops development this run.

Eh I'm not so sure about that, to me it looks like half of the EPS members still keep the system forming north of the Greater Antilles while the other half show a weaker, more southerly system holding off on development until it hits the western Caribbean and interacting with a CAG-type setup possibly? In my experience it's pretty typical for the models to take a few days to calibrate once a potential TC comes off of Africa, so we should have a much better idea about the forecast in another day or two.

https://i.ibb.co/Dkj3j6p/Screen-Shot-2024-07-25-at-3-27-31-AM.png

Typical stronger north, weaker south. If this one doesn't go, August 8th and beyond looks very favorable. The stars need to line up for hurricane development.

The 00z Euro still sends a weak signal all the way across the basin. If there was ever a year when you have to watch these little bundles of energy with two eyes, this is it. Earlier than the usual "bell ringing" day of 8/20 that legendary Dr. William Gray coined. Plus we have all seen models drop a signal only to bring it back with a vengeance. Either way time is short on the doldrums I do believe.

[AnnularCane]

Not to detract, but is that another set of runs heading for the islands?

[Ubuntwo]

Euro and EPS basically drops development this run.

Said run came out after your post last night

[Ubuntwo]

0z Euro brings the wave offshore 1-2 degrees further north, rendering the northern lobe more exposed to drier air. This thins out the wave’s moist pocket, delaying amplification. As a consequence of the lower amplitude, the wave gains less latitude -> a track into the Caribbean. By the last frame we see the wave enter a low-shear environment with a localized moist pocket, so I would expect formation in the Gulf. That said, there is lingering dry air in its broader environment, so this doesn’t look like an RI setup just yet. And yeah… 10 days out.

[Blown Away]

00z ECENS

[Steve]

12z ICON, CMC and GFS still have that hit on New England from the south Monday night. GFS and CMC target Maine whereas ICON is more Rhode Island/Massachusetts. Both show a weak system (more defined earlier) coming up. Looks like a weak TS or TD most likely though it does show up in both the 500mb and surface pressure plots.

[cycloneye]

12z Euro is back with some development, this time it moves it to Florida Penninsula as TD / weak TS.

[IcyTundra]

12Z Euro with a TS just off the coast of Florida.

[SouthFLTropics]

If we can take that TS here on the east Florida coast and call it our storm for the year, I’ll gladly accept that.


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[floridasun]

we need become invest to see what nhc runs show euro having issue this area

[Ubuntwo]

Because it has yet to be posted, today's 12z EPS. 35% develop the wave rolling off Africa now and another 15% develop a later wave in the MDR.

[LarryWx]

The 0Z Euro has a TD moving NW in the N Gulf at 240.

[LarryWx]

The 0Z EPS is the most active in quite a long time with many members with a landfall of a TC from S TX through the rest of the Gulf coast and the E coast anywhere from Aug 3 to Aug 7.

[zzzh]

Notice that this EC run has a monsoon trough breakdown, different from all previous runs. Typically these monsoon trough interactions are hard to forecast.

[kevin]

00z Euro ensemble is looking scary, but still pretty much nothing on the GEFS. Interesting model days ahead.

[Keldeo1997]

The GFS will come around. Its spamming Majors in the East Pac even though that isn't realistic. GFS has a East Pac Bias for some reason.

[zzzh]

Keep an eye on the western end of the monsoon trough near 45w. If it spins up faster than EC is depicting then it will likely not going to be affected/swallowed by the subsequent big wave.

[Frank P]

0z EURO run moving NW at end of the run