2024 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

[Nimbus]

we need become invest to see what nhc runs show euro having issue this area

Has NHC ever invested a wave while it was still over Africa?

We would be lucky to forecast which side of Bahamas its going to track.

Strongest storms still tracking inside Bermuda though so not looking good.

[zzzh]

King GFS finally recognize that there is a vortex but nothing more than an open wave.

[jlauderdal]

The 0Z EPS is the most active in quite a long time with many members with a landfall of a TC from S TX through the rest of the Gulf coast and the E coast anywhere from Aug 3 to Aug 7.

This an all interests from Brownsville to the Cape Fear(NF)need to watch . Interesting its ahead of the favorable setup around Aug 10th. What we are seeing is the high setup for august as predicted a few weeks ago. This a very dangerous pattern for the United States with the expansive high driving systems well past 60W and its the systems that develop beyond 60 which are historically the most damaging. No more lectures about preparations, you know what to do.

[Category5Kaiju]

King GFS finally recognize that there is a vortex but nothing more than an open wave.

Better than nothing haha

[Blown Away]

The 0Z EPS is the most active in quite a long time with many members with a landfall of a TC from S TX through the rest of the Gulf coast and the E coast anywhere from Aug 3 to Aug 7.

This an all interests from Brownsville to the Cape Fear(NF)need to watch . Interesting its ahead of the favorable setup around Aug 10th. What we are seeing is the high setup for august as predicted a few weeks ago. This a very dangerous pattern for the United States with the expansive high driving systems well past 60W and its the systems that develop beyond 60 which are historically the most damaging. No more lectures about preparations, you know what to do.

Very active 00z ECENS...

[jlauderdal]

The 0Z EPS is the most active in quite a long time with many members with a landfall of a TC from S TX through the rest of the Gulf coast and the E coast anywhere from Aug 3 to Aug 7.

This an all interests from Brownsville to the Cape Fear(NF)need to watch . Interesting its ahead of the favorable setup around Aug 10th. What we are seeing is the high setup for august as predicted a few weeks ago. This a very dangerous pattern for the United States with the expansive high driving systems well past 60W and its the systems that develop beyond 60 which are historically the most damaging. No more lectures about preparations, you know what to do.

[url]https://i.postimg.cc/HLvd1xqC/00z-ECENS.jpg [/url]
Very active 00z ECENS...

The trailing wave is making an appearance again.

[toad strangler]

Issued 3 days ago but it's pertinent.

[toad strangler]

 https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1816644547583389836

[SFLcane]

I see eps perked up overnight which is interesting I remain pretty skeptical it’s July 26 not Aug 26 and there is plenty of obstacles the big one being a very dry sinking airmass typical of July. Overall a pretty fragile case we shall see

[N2FSU]

6z GFS looks to be coming around to the Euro, with vorticity making the trek all the way to the Gulf:




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[SFLcane]

06z eps has nada through 6 days.

[N2FSU]

0z Canadian shows the vorticity continuing to the eastern Gulf




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[WeatherBoy2000]

I see eps perked up overnight which is interesting I remain pretty skeptical it’s July 26 not Aug 26 and there is plenty of obstacles the big one being a very dry sinking airmass typical of July. Overall a pretty fragile case we shall see

Even if nothing comes of it, I think it's a sign that the tide is turning for the Atlantic regarding activity. There are others indications out there that the first week of August will be when the Atlantic begins to wake up, even if we don't see a TC:

 https://x.com/dmorris9661/status/1816768025049084126



We're probably over halfway through the post Beryl slumber imo.

[LarryWx]

06z eps has nada through 6 days.

Yes, but 6Z EPS 144 is comparable to the 0Z EPS 150 maps for individual members with some members with precursor weak lows/qpf in or just N of the E Caribbean moving WNW. The 0Z members with actual TCs don’t form til Aug 2-4 whereas the 6Z ends at 6Z on Aug 1.

[REDHurricane]

6z GFS looks to be coming around to the Euro, with vorticity making the trek all the way to the Gulf:

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20240726/9abd91f442d9af5e8d49d5c2415942a7.jpg

Not to get ahead of things here but that could be kind of an ominous signal for the Gulf, almost reminds a little bit me of she-who-must-not-be-named... SSTs well above average in the eastern Gulf right now too

[WiscoWx02]

Looking at satellite this morning, there has been a clear low level coverage zone with some decent spin embedded in the ITCZ right around 40W or so. The Euro shows this area becoming it's own entity of sorts once the ITCZ breaks up a bit, then merges it with the tropical wave that just came off Africa, then carries it west. If there is a decent enough moisture pool with this, and my guess is there will be if it's coming out of the ITCZ on top of the amplified convergence from the tropical wave, I would guess something could very well come out of this at some point. Where and when though is a tough one

[mitchell]

For several days now both the GFS and Euro seem to hint at spinning a low up over the gulf stream east of the mid atlantic, and tracking it inland over New England.

[Stratton23]

CMC has a weak closed low in the western gulf in 10 days

[LarryWx]

CMC has a weak closed low in the western gulf in 10 days

That weak low on the 12Z CMC is from the same wave that the 0Z Euro has a TD from in the N GOM at the end of its run and that the 0Z EPS has many TCs from.

[Stratton23]

LarryWx yep, seems like the other global models are finally starting to see what the euro shows, interesting week ahead