RNS and Erica's Winter Outlook 24 hours early>>>>

Upslope · #21 Postby **Upslope** » Thu Nov 20, 2003 9:19 pm

RNS,

Great job as always! You are a great asset to this and other boards you post on. Very detailed and informative!

We are apparently looking at the data through the same eyes. Now... I just have to know about your what you have surmised for my region. Lexington, Ky... the heart of the bluegrass and college basketball!

#22 Postby **RNS** » Thu Nov 20, 2003 9:40 pm

Thanks upslope...

With the way things are looking (IMO) dude...youve got it made. given the supressed pattern, i have a very distinct feeling that the lower ohio valley...central apps, and middle atlantic will be impacted by several events, with the potential (given the right set-up of course) for at the very least one major event. If not more.

The pattern should be active right through the winter...though in January should be supressed enough that anything coming out of the STJ should be shunted to the south (as i am expecting a severe southward displacement of the PV in the means most of the month...thus promoting a supressed storm track) supressed systems should account for 75% of all events that impact the eastern part of the country in JAN.

you should see at least two 8" events.

Upslope · #23 Postby **Upslope** » Thu Nov 20, 2003 9:55 pm

RNS,

Like I said, we are singing the same tune! Your thoughts match up very well with my winter outlook that I release next week for the "private company" I work for. Normal snowfall for Lexington is around 17 inches and I am shooting for nearly double that for a couple of reasons. A. It's been a long while since we had a "major" snow event! WE ARE WAY OVERDUE! B. The pattern will dictate that the Ohio Valley is in the bullseye with some "Tennessee Valley Trackers"!

My coverage area includes a large swath of Kentucky! The bluegrass area of central Kentucky and the Appalachian mountains of eastern Kentucky can have vastly different weather. That means for my area, I must break it down even further! Difficult to say the least.

To me, the overall pattern looks and smells like December 2000! Let's just hope it doesn't break in January like it did then. At least my soon to be issued winter forecast hopes so!

weathafella · #24 Postby **weathafella** » Thu Nov 20, 2003 9:56 pm

At the very least, the amount of work that went into this is admirable. Personally, I think that all of the indices in the world don't improve substantially the forecast using sst's, prevailing pattern, and analogs. I'll issue a forecast for the east coast within a week....busy travelling this week. On that note...talk about bad timing! I was in Sioux Falls, SD and I left yesterday to perfectly clear 65F conds. Looks good for decent snow over the weekend. Another miss!

#25 Postby **RNS** » Thu Nov 20, 2003 10:01 pm

To me, the overall pattern looks and smells like December 2000! Let's just hope it doesn't break in January like it did then. At least my soon to be issued winter forecast hopes so!

Exactly,,,so thick you could practically cut it with a knife. [/quote]

Squall52 · #26 Postby **Squall52** » Thu Nov 20, 2003 10:24 pm

Upslope- I was wondering what private company you work for? If you don't want to let the entire board know, I understand. It'd be great if you could throw me an email...xc252@hotmail.com. I'm just out of college with a met degree and looking for work. Kentucky has struck me as one of my favorite states, although I haven't been there. So I'd really like to know if you guys are hiring, and if I could send you a resume...anything would be great, thanks.

Stormsfury · #27 Postby **Stormsfury** » Thu Nov 20, 2003 11:17 pm

Thanks RNS for sharing ths information and an excerpt of the overall detailed anaysis that has to be done to come up with long range seasonal forecasting ... This writeup gives a good many people to see just what goes on "behind the scenes" so to speak which involves a great deal of the time that must be spent to prepare and finalize the outlook.

This past tropical weather season was the first time I ever issued seasonal forecast numbers (but I clearly could not spend the amount of time in doing so as you have with your outlook).

Again, I want to thank you and NEwxgirl for taking the time to prepare and post your outlook here.

SF

#28 Postby **NEwxgirl** » Fri Nov 21, 2003 2:43 am

Just wanted to say thank you to everyone for all the compliments on our winter forecast.

the final forecast graphics for december and january are posted on the thread below.

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic ... &view=next

Constructionwx · #29 Postby **Constructionwx** » Fri Nov 21, 2003 12:46 pm

RNS wrote:I think this is your lucky year GA,

our analogs would suggest frequent supressed systems...especially in the late december and january period. as what may be the case for most others in the east...you should also see at least one major snow event (6"+) at some point this year.

I'd like to place my order for an RNS/Erica T-shirt.

WXBUFFJIM · #30 Postby **WXBUFFJIM** » Fri Nov 21, 2003 2:08 pm

That's very informative. love it. As a guy who is passioniate about weather, certainly this is about as informative and detailed as it gets!!

Great work. Oh by the way Erica, did you see auroras last night?? I saw a green glow on the southwestern sky last night. I wasn't looking north very much either even though it lit up there also at times. Amazing isn't it??? Wait until thanksgiving, a big pair of sunspots heading towards the center of the sun!!! An earth directed x class explosion could certainly cause the northern lights to light up worldwide again.

Have a great afternoon!
Jim

Anonymous · #31 Postby **Anonymous** » Fri Nov 21, 2003 3:12 pm

RNS...wow great information, very comprehensive. Please answer this for me...

Seasonal snow fall and temp means for the Northern Shenendoah Valley in Virginia...about 75 west of DC.

Thanks

#32 Postby **RNS** » Fri Nov 21, 2003 3:14 pm

if you can specifiy an exact station i can give you some exact totals for tems/precip

#33 Postby **RNS** » Fri Nov 21, 2003 3:17 pm

I'd like to place my order for an RNS/Erica T-shirt.

HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA....

Anonymous · #34 Postby **Anonymous** » Fri Nov 21, 2003 3:26 pm

Gore, Virginia 22603

#35 Postby **RNS** » Fri Nov 21, 2003 3:53 pm

fish,

Snowfall 55-60" (avg ~45") IOW... AOA...+10" to +15" abv Normal.
Temperature -1.5 to -2.5F

the potential for one major (12"+) event, however this threat becomes much greater further south.

There should be at least two 6" inch events and at least one 10" event.

Anonymous · #36 Postby **Anonymous** » Fri Nov 21, 2003 4:19 pm

RNS...

Thanks...hope it verifies. Last season the big storm dropped 30 inches on us.

Constructionwx · #37 Postby **Constructionwx** » Fri Nov 21, 2003 7:06 pm

RNS wrote:
I'd like to place my order for an RNS/Erica T-shirt.

HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA....

I've felt that this would be a good winter for us in GA for a while. Well, ever since the drought down here finally eased up.

In fact, I'm expecting two or three 4+" events. And, I am well aware that this throws climo out the window.

Thanks again for the time and effort, graphics, etc. that went into your outlook.

Constructionwx · #38 Postby **Constructionwx** » Fri Nov 21, 2003 7:23 pm

Constructionwx wrote:And, I am well aware that this throws climo out the window.

Or, maybe not too much. Our avg. Gainesville is <3", and I've seen my share of snowless winters!

#39 Postby **RNS** » Fri Nov 21, 2003 7:31 pm

you pretty much summed it up... i think we can completey throw out climo as a whole this winter. This fall we have seen many violent swings in temperature here in the eastern part of the country...hail covering the ground in LA, among other things. we couldint be further from climatological normals.

and of course thanks for the positive feedback. below are our temperature snd snowfall predictions for your area (using Atlanta as i couldint find anything reliable for forsyth co.):

SNOWFALL: 10-15"
TEMPERATURE: -2.0 TO -3.0F

there should be four 2" events and one 4 to 8" inch storm

Stormsfury · #40 Postby **Stormsfury** » Fri Nov 21, 2003 7:34 pm

2003 and climatology ... throw that right out the window ...

The first North Atlantic Tropical Storm in recorded history with Ana ... Record Breaking Tornado Outbreak in May (for the month) ... furthest east Tropical Depression to form in the Far Eastern Atlantic in June ... worst hurricane to hit Halifax, Nova Scotia in 110 years ... anybody care to add to that list?

SF

RNS and Erica's Winter Outlook 24 hours early>>>>

Awesome Erica.....

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