2024 Tropical Waves

[mpic]

The difference in precipitation in southeast Texas between the last 2 years of drought and the relentless rain we are getting this year is just astounding. I keep coming here expecting something to be the reason. Trees are still falling after Beryl due to saturated ground. This is unreal.

[cycloneye]

Waves at 7/27/24 on 06z analysis.

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 26W, south
of 22N, moving westward at 15-20 kt. Scattered moderate convection
is observed from 12N to 15N and between 24W and 27W.

Another eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 37W, south
of 22N, moving westward at 10 kt. No significant convection is
evident near this tropical wave.

A western Caribbean tropical wave has its axis along 84W, south
of 19N, moving westward at 20-25 kt. A few showers thunderstorms are
evident near the trough axis over eastern Honduras and Nicaragua.

[cycloneye]

Waves at 7/28/24 on 06z analysis.

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 30W, south
of 22N, moving westward at 15 kt. No significant convection is
evident with this tropical wave.

A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 43W, south of
21N, moving westward at 10 kt. No significant convection is
evident with this tropical wave.

[cycloneye]

2 Waves at 7/29/24 on 18z analysis.

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 39W, south
of 20N, moving westward at 15 kt. No significant convection is
noted with this wave at this time.

A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 50W, south of
17N, moving westward at 10 kt. A few showers are present near the
trough axis south of 12N.

[cycloneye]

Only one wave (The 0/60) as I post this from the 06z analisis.

A tropical wave is near 50W, south of 21N, moving westward at 15
kt. No significant convection is noted near this wave axis.

[cycloneye]

Waves at 7/31/24 on 06z analisis.
A tropical wave is southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands near 28W
from 16N southward, and moving west at 5 to 10 kt. No significant
convection is evident near this tropical wave.

A pronounced tropical wave is near 59W approaching the Lesser
Antilles south of 21N, and moving west at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered
showers and thunderstorms are occurring from 16N to 22N between
53W and 65W.

[cycloneye]

Only two waves that include 97L right now at 8/1/24 on 12z analisis.

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is analyzed with an axis along
35W from 16N to 4N, and moving west at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered
moderate convection is depicted from 13N to 7N between 32W and 38W.

A robust tropical wave is analyzed with an axis along 70W from
23N to 12W. It is moving west around 15 kt. Numerous showers and
thunderstorms are occurring over Hispaniola, Puerto Rico, the
Virgin Islands, and the surrounding waters. Development of
this system should be slow to occur during the next couple of days
while it moves west-northwestward over portions of the Greater
Antilles. However, environmental conditions are forecast to be more
conducive for development after the wave passes the Greater
Antilles, and a tropical depression could form this weekend or early
next week over the eastern Gulf of Mexico or near the Florida
Peninsula. Interests across the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, and
Florida should continue to monitor the progress of this system. This
system has a low chance of tropical cyclone formation through the
next 48 hours, and a medium chance of tropical cyclone formation
through 7 days. Please, see the latest NHC Tropical Weather
Outlook at www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

[cycloneye]

Waves at 8/5/24 on 06z anaylisis.

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 33W from 20N southward,
moving W at 15 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection is noted from 08N to 11N between 28W and 33W.

A western Atlantic tropical wave is along 59W from 18N southward,
moving W at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection is noted within about 210 nm on either side of the wave
axis, including over and near the Windward Islands. In addition,
just east of the wave axis, rough seas and strong NE to E winds
are ongoing. Environmental conditions appear generally favorable
for some slow development of this wave over the next week while it
continues moving W across the Caribbean Sea. There is a low chance
of tropical formation over the next 7 days.

[GCANE]

GFS showing a strong 700mb wave coming off Africa on Sunday 8/18. Might be something to watch