Possible development in the Western Atlantic / GOM (Is Invest 97L)

[Stratton23]

Steering pattern on the GFS and CMC is scary, that kind of pattern would lead to someone on the gulf coast getting walloped

[Ubuntwo]

0z GFS does not string the wave out, but it does take the path of most resistance. Crosses directly over Hispaniola and down the spine of Cuba, and enters the Gulf as an open wave as a result. It still manages to become a hurricane by landfall.

[LarryWx]

0Z Euro: TD forms Bahamas forms 8/2. Becomes H and recurves a bit E of NC. Let’s see what EPS says.

[Stratton23]

00z EPS is more aggressive , spread from s. texas to up the se us coast line

[mantis83]

0Z Euro: TD forms Bahamas forms 8/2. Becomes H and recurves a bit E of NC. Let’s see what EPS says.

florida forcefield arrives just in time to recurve, lets see if it holds......

[IcyTundra]

0Z ECMWF

[Category5Kaiju]

CMC has the system now too (takes a Laura-like track). Funny enough, that recent ECMWF operational seems to be very anomalous as other models, assuming they do show this system, have it entering the Gulf

[AtlanticWind]

Wow ,the euro ensembles really active now

[SFLcane]

Wow ,the euro ensembles really active now

[USTropics]

This is an interesting evolution to watch over the next 5 days. Here is an analysis I put together this morning showing our 3 current active TWS (pink, blue, green). I've outlined the monsoonal trough/ITCZ in red and the deep layer SAL in yellow (with the lesser extension outlined in dashed yellow):



Another great tool to analyze these tropical waves is Earthnull (https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/w ... 20.62,1351). Here I'm using 700mb wind flow to identify the wind field kinks with RH shaded:



Switching over to the models for the next 5 days, the ECMWF has been the most consistent with the evolution so far. This is the 00z run, and I've again outlined the three active tropical waves. I've also indicated the projected paths of their moisture plumes (which is where things get interesting). It appears the northern axis of TW3 (green) becomes fractured, and pivots around TW2 (blue) which causes TW2 to slow down as it interacts with a feature embedded in the ITCZ. The trough axis from TW3 that fractures becomes collocated to the north in ~4 days, and the moisture field from TW2 is streamlined north as TW3 passes near the Leeward Islands/Puerto Rico:



The full 5-day animation:


The 700mb vorticity product also furth shows TW3 is the main catalyst here:


The GFS has been playing a bit of catch up with this evolution. The last few runs are now showing a more pronounced moisture signature (like the ECMWF runs). Here is a trend of the last 6 GFS runs as the system approached Puerto Rico:

[Nimbus]

This is an interesting evolution to watch over the next 5 days. Here is an analysis I put together this morning showing our 3 current active TWS (pink, blue, green). I've outlined the monsoonal trough/ITCZ in red and the deep layer SAL in yellow (with the lesser extension outlined in dashed yellow):

https://i.imgur.com/NzmOQbM.png

Another great tool to analyze these tropical waves is Earthnull (https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/w ... 20.62,1351). Here I'm using 700mb wind flow to identify the wind field kinks with RH shaded:

https://i.imgur.com/hjDEa5v.png

Switching over to the models for the next 5 days, the ECMWF has been the most consistent with the evolution so far. This is the 00z run, and I've again outlined the three active tropical waves. I've also indicated the projected paths of their moisture plumes (which is where things get interesting). It appears the northern axis of TW3 (green) becomes fractured, and pivots around TW2 (blue) which causes TW2 to slow down as it interacts with a feature embedded in the ITCZ. The trough axis from TW2 that fractures becomes collocated to the north in ~4 days, and the moisture field from TW2 is streamlined north as TW3 passes near the Leeward Islands/Puerto Rico:

https://i.imgur.com/hrIG30Q.png

The full 5-day animation:
https://i.ibb.co/hyQr2wq/ecmwf-mid-RH-atl-fh0-120.gif

The 700mb vorticity product also furth shows TW3 is the main catalyst here:
https://i.ibb.co/f9FmCzT/ecmwf-z700-vort-atl-fh0-120.gif

The GFS has been playing a bit of catch up with this evolution. The last few runs are now showing a more pronounced moisture signature (like the ECMWF runs). Here is a trend of the last 6 GFS runs as the system approached Puerto Rico:
https://i.imgur.com/bX9AJSg.gif

NHC is holding off on an invest for the blue wave to see how much it dries out as it moves further west?
Tuesday is 72 hours out and the GFS ridge steering forecast has only migrated east a little with the 00z.

Everybody should be on the same page now thanks for the graphics!

[AtlanticWind]

Gfs with what looks like hurricane (984mb) near key west

[Keldeo1997]

06Z GFS is 1935 Labor day just not as strong

[SFLcane]

Welcome to the party GFS!

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Sat Jul 27 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Near the Lesser and Greater Antilles:
An area of disturbed weather over the central tropical Atlantic
Ocean is expected to interact with an approaching tropical wave
during the next several days. Development of this system is possible
while it approaches the Lesser Antilles during the early to middle
part of next week and moves generally west-northwestward near or
over the Greater Antilles towards the latter part of next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Berg

[sphelps8681]

Looks like the GFS finally woke up.

https://i.ibb.co/kxPkQpV/gfs-mslp-pcpn-watl-fh120-264.gif

Well that is a bulleye straight at me. The day of landing is the first day of school for our area. Well still to far out so will keep an eye on this one. I am ready either way.

[REDHurricane]

00z is easily the most active EPS run yet and now GEFS/GEPS are starting to show a very faint, but still present, signal of development. Low shear, solid moisture pocket, healthy tropical disturbance, and above average SSTs all persist on the models. Things starting to get more interesting as we're now within the 7-10 day time frame where various models have demonstrated the ability to sniff out potential hurricanes somewhat effectively for the last few years at least.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Much stronger model support this morning... GFS/Euro/CMC all show devleopment

[toad strangler]

 https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1817177808478617970

[toad strangler]

 https://twitter.com/andyhazelton/status/1817172196407587301