Possible development in the Western Atlantic / GOM (Is Invest 97L)

[cycloneye]

00z is easily the most active EPS run yet and now GEFS/GEPS are starting to show a very faint, but still present, signal of development. Low shear, solid moisture pocket, healthy tropical disturbance, and above average SSTs all persist on the models. Things starting to get more interesting as we're now within the 7-10 day time frame where various models have demonstrated the ability to sniff out potential hurricanes somewhat effectively for the last few years at least.

https://i.ibb.co/wRGJdDS/Screen-Shot-2024-07-27-at-5-12-29-AM.png

https://media1.giphy.com/media/v1.Y2lkPTc5MGI3NjExN3BxZTNjbG0yMmhpbzF5cms2dnlsY2xnbWhpcmVqbWZ2MTEwZmp2bSZlcD12MV9pbnRlcm5hbF9naWZfYnlfaWQmY3Q9Zw/a9f2WMdPM32iqVUjKn/giphy.gif

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/eps/2024072700/eps_ashear_atl_29.png

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/eps/2024072700/eps_mslp_pwata_atl_29.png

Moved your post from the models discussion to this thread for the wave.

[SFLcane]

 https://x.com/webberweather/status/1817183807562297660

[Spacecoast]

0z EPS is back to ~10% Hurricane probability for 8/6

[Ubuntwo]

Models showing the eastern wave maintaining dominance now. The area marked by the NHC provides a burst of moisture as the two interact, rather than competing. This is keeps the vorticity concentrated and permits formation in the face of land interaction.

[BIFF_THE_UNRULY]

Wow ,the euro ensembles really active now

https://i.postimg.cc/zDkrnM5P/IMG-9077.gif

wierd, with that high pressure ?

All depends on that thing wether florida gets shlonged or not

[Category5Kaiju]

Let's put this into perspective: at roughly the same time the Paris Olympics had its opening ceremony, the GFS had absolutely nothing for the development of this system

Pattern flip is real, guys.

[Ubuntwo]

Let's put this into perspective: at roughly the same time the Paris Olympics had its opening ceremony, the GFS had absolutely nothing for the development of this system

Pattern flip is real, guys.

In this case the GFS flip was caused by a minor dynamics difference in the wave interaction. It’s a very sensitive setup.

Edit: Case in point, look at the 12z GFS! There is no real environmental or pattern difference between the 6z and 12z. One has a slightly more potent wave on interaction - so a little more momentum coming into a period of hefty land interaction. The briefness of this window makes it a really tough forecast. If it can avoid land interaction the point is moot, but that’s also a game of inches.

[MetroMike]

So far the GFS has flipped back to no development at 189 hrs. Takes a while to resolve as models will do this.

[Stratton23]

and the CMC shows the opposite, it shows development of the wave which manages to avoid crossing the islands, very sensitive setup

[N2FSU]

and the CMC shows the opposite, it shows development of the wave which manages to avoid crossing the islands, very sensitive setup

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[Steve]

^^

977 with a landfall near Pascagoula and Grand Bay. You’d think a storm on that track could be much stronger. If it’s staggered from Cuba perhaps 970’s but that’s one you could see closer to the 940’s if things go right for it. Also high pressure east of Florida is strong. CMC can be right biased early and this is too early for sure.


https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 712&fh=240

[LarryWx]

So far the GFS has flipped back to no development at 189 hrs. Takes a while to resolve as models will do this.

12Z GEFS kind of supports its operational’s lack of a TC since TT maps show only 10% of members with a TC though 2 of the 3 look like Hs.

UK still has nada

[Stratton23]

12z Euro major hurricane off of NC

[BobHarlem]

12z Euro major hurricane off of NC

[LarryWx]

12Z EPS: active with almost all of its TCs near or off E coast vs GOM. So, supports Euro op

[Stratton23]

Steering pattern is complicated, the entire gulf coast and SE coastline need to watch this one

[mantis83]

12Z EPS: active with almost all of its TCs near or off E coast vs GOM. So, supports Euro op

florida force field in full effect. east coast weakness showing up just in time. maybe setting up the pattern for the rest of the season......

[Stratton23]

mantis83 I wouldnt bet on that happening, one trough coming down does not mean thats gonna be the pattern for the rest of the season, the trough isnt even all that strong on this run, barely enough to pull it east of florida and then north

[Category5Kaiju]

12Z EPS: active with almost all of its TCs near or off E coast vs GOM. So, supports Euro op

florida force field in full effect. east coast weakness showing up just in time. maybe setting up the pattern for the rest of the season......

As much as I would love that to be the case, other models like CMC and GFS still show a Gulf threat. You also cannot just hedge on this model run being evidence of a "Florida force shield" and this being proof of a theme for future storm tracks in the season (especially after we just had a storm like Beryl take on a route through the Caribbean rather than spinning on out to sea). I've noticed you have a tendency to make those kinds of statements, so I just wanted to politely disagree and add some nuance to them.

[boca]

Once we actually have something form the models will have a better idea where it’s going to go. This year I’m not to confident that a trough will save Florida like it seems like it always did in past hurricane seasons.