Possible development in the Western Atlantic / GOM (Is Invest 97L)

[Category5Kaiju]

Good thread about the Euro and GFS/CMC discrepancy on where this system is headed:

 https://x.com/webberweather/status/1817264339797311863

[Travorum]

12z EPS

[weeniepatrol]

12z EPS
https://i.imgur.com/KjZ82XO.png

[rockice]

12z EPS
https://i.imgur.com/KjZ82XO.png

https://i.imgur.com/pxd8Rad.png

I don't think that will happen.IMO

[Beef Stew]

While this is a very intricate setup with what’s likely to initially be a broad, sprawling wave, I personally think the odds of this becoming a significant early August system are fairly high.

[sasha_B]

12z EPS
https://i.imgur.com/KjZ82XO.png

https://i.imgur.com/pxd8Rad.png

I don't think that will happen.IMO

Pardon if I'm misunderstanding, but don't think what will happen? I'm pretty sure the graphic you replied to just forecasts probabilities, rather than making a deterministic prediction about track and impact that could be said to "happen" or "not happen".

[rockice]

https://i.imgur.com/pxd8Rad.png

I don't think that will happen.IMO

Pardon if I'm misunderstanding, but don't think what will happen? I'm pretty sure the graphic you replied to just forecasts probabilities, rather than making a deterministic prediction about track and impact that could be said to "happen" or "not happen".

what I mean is we need more model support

[AutoPenalti]

Sizable shift east, wondering if it’s because that feature is developing further north

[Michele B]

There is a huge high pressure ridge over the Atlantic which would propel this thing west.

I'm wondering if it turns north due to a weakening in the ridge later next week? That would be my best scenario!

Don't want no more hurricanes in Florida!!!

Or in the Gulf.

[LarryWx]

It’s been awhile since a TC formed in the tropics in early August from an AEW being monitored E of the Caribbean. The last one was Earl of 2016, which happened to be the last time we had a forming La Niña that followed El Niño:

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Earl_(2016)

[Stratton23]

The weakness im seeing isnt overly strong, so their is still a chance this could get into the gulf of mexico, this isnt late august/September when we usually get more deep and well defined troughs to dig down and really help to pick up these systems, this trough looks generally weak, and that can be a huge factor on if this feels a weakness or not

[Nimbus]

Sizable shift east, wondering if it’s because that feature is developing further north

The 06 GFS had one frame in the Thursday range showing much stronger ridging before the ridge backed off to the east.

That might force any closed system to track with more land interaction over PR and Hispaniola but then the 06Z developed the 1935 Labor day hurricane out of nowhere so I stopped looking at it.

12Z GFS has a slightly stronger ridge at the critical steering stages but no closed circulation to steer towards the Florida straits.

The wave feeding from the ITCZ near -45W is pretty far south and its pretty dry out there so if that particular wave tried to gain latitude as the Euro suggests its not worth looking at..

[Frank P]

First time I recall the UKMO picking up anything on the tagged system by NHC. Looks like a 1012 low with inverted trough heading towards the GOM. Run stops here.

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

There is a huge high pressure ridge over the Atlantic which would propel this thing west.

I'm wondering if it turns north due to a weakening in the ridge later next week? That would be my best scenario!

Don't want no more hurricanes in Florida!!!

Or in the Gulf.

I hate high dew points thus I've been looking at the various model runs, the turn north is caused by a projected front that sweeps in from the Great Lakes around August 7th-9th.

[Stratton23]

I think one of the big problems the GFS is having right now is showing the atlantic and this wave convectively dead , while having the energy focused in the EPAC with the MJO still stuck in that region, this is a problem on the GFS because ira trying to hold back the MJO from propagating into the atlantic thus showing most of the energy focused in the EPAC, thats one reason why the GFS maybe doing poor with this wave that the euro and CMC develop

[BobHarlem]

18z gfs not doing anything with it, but it's still obsessed with the East Pacific stuff which may be why.

[sasha_B]

18z gfs not doing anything with it, but it's still obsessed with the East Pacific stuff which may be why.

Yeah, the GFS seems to have been stuck on that for weeks, without all that much to show for it. It's hard to believe that it'll start being correct about it now, especially with the Euro and CMC both starting to suggest more Atlantic activity at that range, but maybe there are factors that I'm overlooking.

[Stratton23]

Land interaction is the biggest factor with this wave , but the GFS has consistently being over aggressive in the EPAC the last few weeks and nothing has verified, i might stick to just the CMC and Euro guidances until the GFS corrects away from this biacy

[IcyTundra]

NHC upped development chances to 0/40. Looks like they aren’t buying the GFS/GEFS.

[toad strangler]

 https://twitter.com/nhc_atlantic/status/1817342512295825468