Possible development in the Western Atlantic / GOM (Is Invest 97L)

[LarryWx]

Despite the 12Z Euro being much weaker, the more reliable ensembles (12Z EPS) are still quite active and still are heavily favoring either near or offshore the US E coast with just a couple of members with a TC in the E GOM.

[Nimbus]

Still coming in but 12z gfs has it in the Gulf again after several runs with nothing.
https://i.imgur.com/ZH452BU.png
https://i.imgur.com/Hirvi9Z.png

And then slows down/nearly stalls offshore of Panama City Beach, FL and gets in on Early Tuesday morning.
https://i.imgur.com/zoDJ3Kh.png

12z CMC also goes into gulf much like the 0z run.

12Z GFS run is showing the western most wave currently near ~-47W closing off into a weak low near -50W but tracks that low far south eventually over Panama in hour 174. Keeps the broad dry circulation currently near -34W from closing off till its in the gulf about hour 174. As previously noted drier environment with the GFS delays development.

[Stratton23]

I think this is likely going to end up more in the eastern gulf of mexico, a weaker system will not feel the influence of the weakness as much over the bahamas, im going with a more ICON solution given how well it did with the track of Beryl

[LarryWx]

Though not one of top 5 most followed globals, the JMA, which along with the ICON was best with Beryl's track in the W GOM, has a TC for the first time with it in the NW Bahamas moving NNW (TD at 1013 mb). Thus, counting this, that means 3 in GOM (ICON/GFS/CMC) and 3 in SW Atlantic (UKMET/Euro/JMA). So, this run has a TC for the first time on the JMA, UKMET, and ICON.

[robbielyn]

Why is the orange X way below the formation area on the NHC's chart?

because it will stay a wave and not develop until then.

[Spacecoast]

12z EPS:

Trop Storm probabilities:

[LarryWx]

I think this is likely going to end up more in the eastern gulf of mexico, a weaker system will not feel the influence of the weakness as much over the bahamas, im going with a more ICON solution given how well it did with the track of Beryl

Keep in mind that the two strongest solutions, CMC and ICON, are in the GOM.

[Stratton23]

LarryWx weird that stronger= more of a gulf threat, usually a weaker system would just continue west and not feel the weakness as much, stronger would tend to turn north quicker, at least in most cases

[Blown Away]

I think this is likely going to end up more in the eastern gulf of mexico, a weaker system will not feel the influence of the weakness as much over the bahamas, im going with a more ICON solution given how well it did with the track of Beryl

Keep in mind that the two strongest solutions, CMC and ICON, are in the GOM.

I always pause on if an AOC will actually develop into a significant TC when the Euro is E of the GFS, those models going against their bias. GFS will continue not developing before GOM if it continues tracking over all the GA islands. JMHO

[skillz305]

IMO - the very early runs of Beryl were very accurate. once Beryl actually formed, the models pointed back to the very early runs. This early run was into Florida. Can't take too much seriously until this develops and we get more accurate model data. It's a very wide spread right now. Time will tell. BOLO anywhere from Texas/North Carolina etc. (All IMO)

[Nimbus]

Though not one of top 5 most followed globals, the JMA, which along with the ICON was best with Beryl's track in the W GOM, has a TC for the first time with it in the NW Bahamas moving NNW (TD at 1013 mb). Thus, counting this, that means 3 in GOM (ICON/GFS/CMC) and 3 in SW Atlantic (UKMET/Euro/JMA). So, this run has a TC for the first time on the JMA, UKMET, and ICON.

The three models that start to recurve near Florida spin up the eastern wave.
Still pulling plenty of moisture up out of the ITCZ tonight and should the trend continue it could wrap and close off in the earlier scenario.

[Stratton23]

18z ICON has the wave a bit more over water and a little more south of cuba and its 12z run,

[AtlanticWind]

I think the complex genesis on this system is harder for the models
to resolve.

I am thinking this system will eventually be stronger then shown on most models

Hopefully in a couple of days we will have better idea on path and intensity.

[ScottNAtlanta]

I think all the people who are saying the Icon did so well with Beryl need to remember it did well after you had a coherent system. It's not very good with genesis. So far the GFS has been better on that account (it sniffed out Beryl well before the other models). Many of these models are not going to be so good until the system is forming.

[AtlanticWind]

For the forecast west of 55W, a nearly stationary front off
northeast Florida along 30N will drift SE and gradually dissipate
through Mon. The Bermuda-Azores high pressure ridge will build
across the region thereafter into mid-week, supporting gentle to
moderate winds north of 22N, and moderate to fresh winds south of
22N. Looking ahead, winds and seas associated with a vigorous
tropical wave will increase northeast of the Leeward Islands Tue
night into Wed, then move to the north of Puerto Rico and
Hispaniola through Thu.

$$
Lewitsky


From the NHC tropical weather discussion

[Blown Away]

I think all the people who are saying the Icon did so well with Beryl need to remember it did well after you had a coherent system. It's not very good with genesis. So far the GFS has been better on that account (it sniffed out Beryl well before the other models). Many of these models are not going to be so good until the system is forming.

GFS may be correct, it is a fantastic global model, but it has consistently shown a path over nearly all the GA islands which prohibits development. If GFS sees this below or above GA’s I’d bet development is possible!!

[LarryWx]

I think all the people who are saying the Icon did so well with Beryl need to remember it did well after you had a coherent system. It's not very good with genesis. So far the GFS has been better on that account (it sniffed out Beryl well before the other models). Many of these models are not going to be so good until the system is forming.

What I’ve been referring to is just for the final Beryl landfall (7/8) in the W GOM regarding the runs June 30th-July 4th, when ICON and JMA did a good bit better than the 4 others, before all models finally caught on. CMC was worst (didn’t consistently hit TX til 0Z 7/6 run) and UKMET next to worst. The tally can be seen here:

https://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopi ... 1#p3075391

[Stratton23]

In the steering pattern ive noticed a change in the 18z GFS that could be big in the long term track if this develops , it has a weaker shortwave over the SE US that eventually gets sheared apart and ridging begins to build back in, cutting off the weakness, its not a dramatic difference yet but it could be if future runs show this

[Stratton23]

GFS completely stalls out the system as it waits for the next trough to dive down

[Nimbus]

Though not one of top 5 most followed globals, the JMA, which along with the ICON was best with Beryl's track in the W GOM, has a TC for the first time with it in the NW Bahamas moving NNW (TD at 1013 mb). Thus, counting this, that means 3 in GOM (ICON/GFS/CMC) and 3 in SW Atlantic (UKMET/Euro/JMA). So, this run has a TC for the first time on the JMA, UKMET, and ICON.

The three models that start to recurve near Florida spin up the eastern wave.
Still pulling plenty of moisture up out of the ITCZ tonight and should the trend continue it could wrap and close off in the earlier scenario.

NHC also following the train, there is even a larger wave near 0W..