2024 Indicators: SST's, MSLP, Shear, SAL, Steering, Instability (Day 16+ Climate Models)

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Re: 2024 Indicators: SST's, MSLP, Shear, SAL, Steering, Instability (Day 16+ Climate Models)

#1641 Postby WaveBreaking » Sat Jul 27, 2024 10:42 am

toad strangler wrote:Morales doing an about face.

https://twitter.com/johnmoralestv/status/1817217865906327835?s=46


Doesn’t surprise me that he’s using CDAS to downplay when Coral Reef Watch looks like this :lol:

EDIT: Checking the tweet it seems like he wasn’t actually trying to downplay and instead thought that CDAS was reliable for SSTAs, as he later retracted his statement in the replies. Regardless, the MDR SSTs are still nightmarishly hot.

Image Image
Last edited by WaveBreaking on Sat Jul 27, 2024 10:54 am, edited 3 times in total.
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Re: 2024 Indicators: SST's, MSLP, Shear, SAL, Steering, Instability (Day 16+ Climate Models)

#1642 Postby WaveBreaking » Sat Jul 27, 2024 10:46 am

mpic wrote:Has the ICON picked it up yet?


ICON shows it briefly forming at ~45W before fizzling out in the ECAR.
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Re: 2024 Indicators: SST's, MSLP, Shear, SAL, Steering, Instability (Day 16+ Climate Models)

#1644 Postby Category5Kaiju » Sun Jul 28, 2024 2:20 pm

Captain Barbossa timeline, 2024 edition (thus far):

1. June 1st: Everyone is excited about the upcoming season. Many are anticipating upcoming action later in the month, but most know that the real action will most likely start in August.
2. June 30th: A Category 4 hurricane rampages through the MDR. Many are absolutely stunned at the sight.
3. July 2nd: That Category 4 hurricane is now a Category 5 hurricane in the Eastern Caribbean. Many begin to greatly worry about the future of the season.
4. July 15th: Lots of SAL is present in the Atlantic basin. However, most people are not surprised by this, as they were expecting it, althouh a select few see nothing in the models and begin to question if hyperactivity is on the table after all.
5. July 28th: Atlantic is still slow. Dry, stable air is present in the tropics. However, models are beginning to suggest things will be changing within a few days.
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Re: RE: Re: 2024 Indicators: SST's, MSLP, Shear, SAL, Steering, Instability (Day 16+ Climate Models)

#1645 Postby jlauderdal » Sun Jul 28, 2024 2:51 pm

Category5Kaiju wrote:Captain Barbossa timeline, 2024 edition (thus far):

1. June 1st: Everyone is excited about the upcoming season. Many are anticipating upcoming action later in the month, but most know that the real action will most likely start in August.
2. June 30th: A Category 4 hurricane rampages through the MDR. Many are absolutely stunned at the sight.
3. July 2nd: That Category 4 hurricane is now a Category 5 hurricane in the Eastern Caribbean. Many begin to greatly worry about the future of the season.
4. July 15th: Lots of SAL is present in the Atlantic basin. However, most people are not surprised by this, as they were expecting it, althouh a select few see nothing in the models and begin to question if hyperactivity is on the table after all.
5. July 28th: Atlantic is still slow. Dry, stable air is present in the tropics. However, models are beginning to suggest things will be changing within a few days.
July 16: Season cancel posts appear
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Re: 2024 Indicators: SST's, MSLP, Shear, SAL, Steering, Instability (Day 16+ Climate Models)

#1646 Postby AnnularCane » Sun Jul 28, 2024 2:54 pm

Category5Kaiju wrote:Captain Barbossa timeline, 2024 edition (thus far):

1. June 1st: Everyone is excited about the upcoming season. Many are anticipating upcoming action later in the month, but most know that the real action will most likely start in August.
2. June 30th: A Category 4 hurricane rampages through the MDR. Many are absolutely stunned at the sight.
3. July 2nd: That Category 4 hurricane is now a Category 5 hurricane in the Eastern Caribbean. Many begin to greatly worry about the future of the season.
4. July 15th: Lots of SAL is present in the Atlantic basin. However, most people are not surprised by this, as they were expecting it, althouh a select few see nothing in the models and begin to question if hyperactivity is on the table after all.
5. July 28th: Atlantic is still slow. Dry, stable air is present in the tropics. However, models are beginning to suggest things will be changing within a few days.



Actually I think some were expecting immediate activity because I think I recall some mild season cancelling pre-Alberto. :P
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Re: RE: Re: 2024 Indicators: SST's, MSLP, Shear, SAL, Steering, Instability (Day 16+ Climate Models)

#1647 Postby jlauderdal » Sun Jul 28, 2024 3:15 pm

AnnularCane wrote:
Category5Kaiju wrote:Captain Barbossa timeline, 2024 edition (thus far):

1. June 1st: Everyone is excited about the upcoming season. Many are anticipating upcoming action later in the month, but most know that the real action will most likely start in August.
2. June 30th: A Category 4 hurricane rampages through the MDR. Many are absolutely stunned at the sight.
3. July 2nd: That Category 4 hurricane is now a Category 5 hurricane in the Eastern Caribbean. Many begin to greatly worry about the future of the season.
4. July 15th: Lots of SAL is present in the Atlantic basin. However, most people are not surprised by this, as they were expecting it, althouh a select few see nothing in the models and begin to question if hyperactivity is on the table after all.
5. July 28th: Atlantic is still slow. Dry, stable air is present in the tropics. However, models are beginning to suggest things will be changing within a few days.



Actually I think some were expecting immediate activity because I think I recall some mild season cancelling pre-Alberto. :P
When I see season cancel, i think "it only takes one".
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Re: RE: Re: 2024 Indicators: SST's, MSLP, Shear, SAL, Steering, Instability (Day 16+ Climate Models)

#1648 Postby ScottNAtlanta » Sun Jul 28, 2024 4:54 pm

jlauderdal wrote:
AnnularCane wrote:
Category5Kaiju wrote:Captain Barbossa timeline, 2024 edition (thus far):

1. June 1st: Everyone is excited about the upcoming season. Many are anticipating upcoming action later in the month, but most know that the real action will most likely start in August.
2. June 30th: A Category 4 hurricane rampages through the MDR. Many are absolutely stunned at the sight.
3. July 2nd: That Category 4 hurricane is now a Category 5 hurricane in the Eastern Caribbean. Many begin to greatly worry about the future of the season.
4. July 15th: Lots of SAL is present in the Atlantic basin. However, most people are not surprised by this, as they were expecting it, althouh a select few see nothing in the models and begin to question if hyperactivity is on the table after all.
5. July 28th: Atlantic is still slow. Dry, stable air is present in the tropics. However, models are beginning to suggest things will be changing within a few days.



Actually I think some were expecting immediate activity because I think I recall some mild season cancelling pre-Alberto. :P
When I see season cancel, i think "it only takes one".

I just assume they are talking about the EPAC :spam:
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Re: 2024 Indicators: SST's, MSLP, Shear, SAL, Steering, Instability (Day 16+ Climate Models)

#1649 Postby weeniepatrol » Mon Jul 29, 2024 1:44 am

Excellent news, everyone! USA Today is here with riveting, cutting-edge analysis: per their team of specialists and researchers, they have come to the conclusion that hurricane season is not over!!!!!!!! :spam: :spam: :spam:

Image

:lol:


https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation/2024/07/28/tropical-disturbance-atlantic-hurricane-season/74581048007/

(No problems with the article itself, but wow. Worst headline I've ever seen)
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Re: 2024 Indicators: SST's, MSLP, Shear, SAL, Steering, Instability (Day 16+ Climate Models)

#1650 Postby ChrisH-UK » Mon Jul 29, 2024 5:13 am

weeniepatrol wrote:Excellent news, everyone! USA Today is here with riveting, cutting-edge analysis: per their team of specialists and researchers, they have come to the conclusion that hurricane season is not over!!!!!!!! :spam: :spam: :spam:

https://i.imgur.com/AE2KPPN.png

:lol:


https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation/2024/07/28/tropical-disturbance-atlantic-hurricane-season/74581048007/

(No problems with the article itself, but wow. Worst headline I've ever seen)


Or someone knows and has a joke about it.
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Re: RE: Re: 2024 Indicators: SST's, MSLP, Shear, SAL, Steering, Instability (Day 16+ Climate Models)

#1651 Postby jlauderdal » Mon Jul 29, 2024 5:34 am

ScottNAtlanta wrote:
jlauderdal wrote:
AnnularCane wrote:

Actually I think some were expecting immediate activity because I think I recall some mild season cancelling pre-Alberto. :P
When I see season cancel, i think "it only takes one".

I just assume they are talking about the EPAC :spam:

One of our local nbc mets called out "people I disagree with" yesterday on twitter. :D
https://x.com/RyanNBC6/status/1817709020041331115

His industry has guilty parties!
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Re: 2024 Indicators: SST's, MSLP, Shear, SAL, Steering, Instability (Day 16+ Climate Models)

#1653 Postby DorkyMcDorkface » Mon Jul 29, 2024 10:21 am

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Re: 2024 Indicators: SST's, MSLP, Shear, SAL, Steering, Instability (Day 16+ Climate Models)

#1654 Postby SFLcane » Mon Jul 29, 2024 11:28 am

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Re: 2024 Indicators: SST's, MSLP, Shear, SAL, Steering, Instability (Day 16+ Climate Models)

#1655 Postby MarioProtVI » Mon Jul 29, 2024 2:10 pm

EPS perking up big time with activity especially at longer range
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Re: 2024 Indicators: SST's, MSLP, Shear, SAL, Steering, Instability (Day 16+ Climate Models)

#1656 Postby zzzh » Mon Jul 29, 2024 3:30 pm

MDR sst exceeded the 91-20 climo max today.
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Re: 2024 Indicators: SST's, MSLP, Shear, SAL, Steering, Instability (Day 16+ Climate Models)

#1657 Postby cycloneye » Mon Jul 29, 2024 3:37 pm

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Re: 2024 Indicators: SST's, MSLP, Shear, SAL, Steering, Instability (Day 16+ Climate Models)

#1658 Postby MetroMike » Mon Jul 29, 2024 4:43 pm

MarioProtVI wrote:EPS perking up big time with activity especially at longer range


Where do you see those signals? In all my sites I don't see anything to suggest such activity.
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Re: 2024 Indicators: SST's, MSLP, Shear, SAL, Steering, Instability (Day 16+ Climate Models)

#1659 Postby IcyTundra » Mon Jul 29, 2024 6:32 pm

MetroMike wrote:
MarioProtVI wrote:EPS perking up big time with activity especially at longer range


Where do you see those signals? In all my sites I don't see anything to suggest such activity.


https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 2912&fh=12

Some members in the long range EPS show development from future tropical waves.
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Re: 2024 Indicators: SST's, MSLP, Shear, SAL, Steering, Instability (Day 16+ Climate Models)

#1660 Postby chaser1 » Tue Jul 30, 2024 12:22 pm

Dr. William Gray looking down with a grin "I see you all crowding around that light switch but I told'ya that you have to wait till Aug 15-20 for it to be flipped on" :wink:
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