Possible development in the Western Atlantic / GOM (Is Invest 97L)

[toad strangler]

morning vis sat loop show a low level circ trying to get spinning.
[url]https://i.ibb.co/Z6vGWks/goes16-truecolor-catl.gif [/url]

Good morning yall....where is the area u mention?...on tha right side of the image?...I have read a few forecast discussions up and down the Florida peninsula...sounding like this system will make its presence known there in whatever form it may take?...

Dry as a bone ATM

[underthwx]

morning vis sat loop show a low level circ trying to get spinning.
[url]https://i.ibb.co/Z6vGWks/goes16-truecolor-catl.gif [/url]

Good morning yall....where is the area u mention?...on tha right side of the image?...I have read a few forecast discussions up and down the Florida peninsula...sounding like this system will make its presence known there in whatever form it may take?...

Dry as a done ATM
https://i.ibb.co/9cDm6XJ/IMG-1879.jpg

Ask and I shall recieve!...thankyou!....I sure hope yall don't have to deal with another mess.....

[Frank P]

morning vis sat loop show a low level circ trying to get spinning.
[url]https://i.ibb.co/Z6vGWks/goes16-truecolor-catl.gif [/url]

Good morning yall....where is the area u mention?...on tha right side of the image?...I have read a few forecast discussions up and down the Florida peninsula...sounding like this system will make its presence known there in whatever form it may take?...

Several areas, most dominant area is near 12 deg north and 5O deg west heading west and the general area where is NHC has its X located for tagged area, the other smaller rotation is around 13 deg north and and 45 deg west heading nw

[underthwx]

morning vis sat loop show a low level circ trying to get spinning.
[url]https://i.ibb.co/Z6vGWks/goes16-truecolor-catl.gif [/url]

Good morning yall....where is the area u mention?...on tha right side of the image?...I have read a few forecast discussions up and down the Florida peninsula...sounding like this system will make its presence known there in whatever form it may take?...

Several areas, most dominant area is near 12 deg north and 5O deg west heading west and the general area where is NHC has its X located for tagged area, the other smaller rotation is around 13 deg north and and 45 deg west heading nw

Thanks Frank....

[Frank P]

morning vis sat loop show a low level circ trying to get spinning.
[url]https://i.ibb.co/Z6vGWks/goes16-truecolor-catl.gif [/url]

Good morning yall....where is the area u mention?...on tha right side of the image?...I have read a few forecast discussions up and down the Florida peninsula...sounding like this system will make its presence known there in whatever form it may take?...

Dry as a bone ATM

Yeah and expected to stay dry for the time being, but I notice the general spin in this area last night using the Ventusky app


Latest image

[chaser1]

No reason why this shouldn't be tagged an invest - by this afternoon. Seems to me that ALL the models are performing fairly decent in picking this feature up. Without getting caught up in the weeds, essentially all major models are seeing a week disturbance tracking NW over/near the Greater Antilles with development hindered until it reaches a longitude of 75W - 80W. The fact that the GFS operational does not indicate a closed low is really less material given the land interaction (along with what other factors are involved). I think the only less likely but possible surprise that "could" come out of this event might be a faster development of the discreet disturbance located at about 49W & 12N itself (which Frank pointed out above)... outside of/beyond any direct interaction of the wave to its east. In fact, I suspect that the wave itself will play less a role in potential development and more of a role impacting potential future track. My gut still tells me that this develops into a TD or weak TS either side of the Leeward Islands and tracks into the NE Caribbean where it'll be "introduced to the Rock"

[chaser1]

As a side note, this disturbance might well be quite the harbinger of numerous other storm tracks to come once the meat of the season kicks in.

[BobHarlem]

No reason why this shouldn't be tagged an invest - by this afternoon. Seems to me that ALL the models are performing fairly decent in picking this feature up. Without getting caught up in the weeds, essentially all major models are seeing a week disturbance tracking NW over/near the Greater Antilles with development hindered until it reaches a longitude of 75W - 80W. The fact that the GFS operational does not indicate a closed low is really less material given the land interaction (along with what other factors are involved). I think the only less likely but possible surprise that "could" come out of this event might be a faster development of the discreet disturbance located at about 49W & 12N itself (which Frank pointed out above)... outside of/beyond any direct interaction of the wave to its east. In fact, I suspect that the wave itself will play less a role in potential development and more of a role impacting potential future track. My gut still tells me that this develops into a TD or weak TS either side of the Leeward Islands and tracks into the NE Caribbean where it'll be "introduced to the Rock"

Invest probably won't happen for a few days, there's virtually no convection currently, (take a quick look at the WV sat) and even then what are you going to tag the center as? Honestly I don't think we're at the stage where you can say anything more than some area in the general Caribbean to Bahamas may happen later in the week.

[ScottNAtlanta]

I haven't really looked at the models yet this morning, but I see someone said something about it getting caught under a ridge and forced west. I get VERY nervous when I see that, because that is a scenario where you get some really nasty storms. I can name several that would fall into that kind of development. So, lets hope that is not how it plays out

[underthwx]

Good morning yall....where is the area u mention?...on tha right side of the image?...I have read a few forecast discussions up and down the Florida peninsula...sounding like this system will make its presence known there in whatever form it may take?...

Dry as a bone ATM

Yeah and expected to stay dry for the time being, but I notice the general spin in this area last night using the Ventusky app


Latest image [url]https://i.ibb.co/nkSs2F5/IMG-4317.png [/url]

Yeah....does not look like much atm...but what is the time frame for tbe system to begin organizing better?....about mid to late week if it does?....

[blp]

I am impressed on how the Euro picked this up so many days ago. Very complicated evolution. The other thing is just how favorable conditions are west of 75W. Every model that develops this ramps up after 75W.

[Frank P]

GFS 06z drops development... what little vorticity shown on the 700mb cyclonic vorticity model and wind run appears to be destroyed by Cuba

[jlauderdal]

I am impressed on how the Euro picked this up so many days ago. Very complicated evolution. The other thing is just how favorable conditions are west of 75W. Every model that develops this ramps up after 75W.

As much as I like the euro, way too early to give it the win. The only thing winning right now is the SAL, but after this bout, chances of more SAL decrease significantly moving forward.

[NDG]

I just want to point out what I am seeing on the ECMWF's forecast runs.
The main energy is the mid level vorticity clearly seen on the WV satellite near 40W.
The Euro forecasts this mid level vorticity to track west towards the Lesser Antilles over the next 3-4 days, it shows convection start blooming as it pulls in the low level vorticity to the SW of it near 48W this morning and moisture along with it, and as UL divergence starts getting on top of it. It shows slow organization start taking place north of Hispaniola with a broad circulation slowly start developing north of Hispaniola by Thursday.
I am not letting my guards down here in FL as I think the Euro is handling this TW better than the GFS so far.

I am not sold on a northerly track east of FL with the Atlantic ridge being stronger this year, if it does it will be much closer to FL if not over FL. The eastern GOM should not let their guards down.

[MEANINGLESS_NUMBERS]

Plenty of deterministic models and ensemble members showing no development from this system. NHC's 50% is far from a sure thing.

[Ubuntwo]

Plenty of deterministic models and ensemble members showing no development from this system. NHC's 50% is far from a sure thing.

Yes, about 55% of the GFS ensembles (plus the op) and 30% of Euro ensembles do not develop. That’s why it’s 50% at the moment and not higher . I would expect a bump to 60% later today if the 12z holds steady.

[underthwx]

morning vis sat loop show a low level circ trying to get spinning.
[url]https://i.ibb.co/Z6vGWks/goes16-truecolor-catl.gif [/url]

Good morning yall....where is the area u mention?...on tha right side of the image?...I have read a few forecast discussions up and down the Florida peninsula...sounding like this system will make its presence known there in whatever form it may take?...

Dry as a bone ATM
https://i.ibb.co/25QBhYd/IMG-1880.jpg

Looking at this satellite image....my untrained eye sees the body of the system to be....it looks like it's waiting for all the right ingredients to come together...

[LarryWx]

To review what has already been posted, yesterday’s 12Z EPS TC mean was ~100 miles NE of the NW Bahamas. But then yesterday’s 18Z Euro moved SW ~100 miles to be closer to S FL (right over NW Bahamas) with some TCs over/near S FL. However, today’s 0Z and 6Z went back ~150 miles NE and are both ~150 miles NE of the NW Bahamas. These comparisons are very easily seen on TTidbits by comparing today’s 6Z at 144 vs 0Z at 150 vs 18Z at 156 vs 12Z at 162.
Where will today’s 12Z mean be? We’ll see!

[BobHarlem]

The 12z Icon shifted right once again, it now crosses Key West now and then in north of Tampa, but pretty weak.

[Ubuntwo]

The 12z Icon shifted right once again, it now crosses Key West now and then in north of Tampa, but pretty weak.

https://i.imgur.com/0v1njlw.png

Looks like too much land interaction to really get going this run? Not much time between moving off Cuba and interacting with Florida.