Possible development in the Western Atlantic / GOM (Is Invest 97L)

[otowntiger]

The real feature is the very large wave just behind the one the NHC mentions. It will be overtaking the first wave and adding its energy to the mix. Neither has much convection now, but that should change near the Bahamas or in the eastern Gulf on Saturday. I think NHC will be bumping chances up to 70-80% by Wednesday, with development just beyond 48 hours by then. I'm thinking that chances are as high as 90% by this weekend. Another working weekend for me. We already have clients requesting conference calls.

Wait, wxman is actually bullish on the formation of a storm? What just happened? Doesn't look like it will be much of a storm though if the models are to be trusted.

thinking the same thing, lol! It’s rare to see him more bullish than most here and especially the NHC.

[WaveBreaking]

12z Euro weakish 1008mb and comes close to the FL peninsula before moving N into SC and seems to stall just inland.... hardly moving 192 hours through to end at 240.

Yeah it seems like wherever this goes it’s going to stall out at landfall.

12z Euro

[LarryWx]

The 12Z EPS still active and is fairly similar to the 0Z/6Z with some hitting the E coast but more staying just offshore and way less activity in the Gulf vs the Atlantic.

[Stratton23]

Im starting to think an out to sea track is starting to become a less likely scenario outcome at this point, I think the EPS will correct towards the OP Euro with more tracks going into the SE coast, probably the carolinas, that upper high really builds in from the east and cuts off any escape route out to sea, unfortunately in my opinion i think the stalling scenario might be a little more on the table now , that shortwave that models were showing is weaker and quicker to exit the picture meaning steering currents will collapse as the system approaches the SE US coast

[BobHarlem]

12z UKMET


It then ends the run getting close to going back into the Atlantic near Melbourne, FL

[Nimbus]

The real feature is the very large wave just behind the one the NHC mentions. It will be overtaking the first wave and adding its energy to the mix. Neither has much convection now, but that should change near the Bahamas or in the eastern Gulf on Saturday. I think NHC will be bumping chances up to 70-80% by Wednesday, with development just beyond 48 hours by then. I'm thinking that chances are as high as 90% by this weekend. Another working weekend for me. We already have clients requesting conference calls.

Wait, wxman is actually bullish on the formation of a storm? What just happened? Doesn't look like it will be much of a storm though if the models are to be trusted.

Crews are scheduled for projects in advance and fly on and off those oil rigs by Helicopter.
So even a weak depression still means something depending on whether its going to spin up in Bahamas or gulf.
And the wave coming off Africa in a couple days could be even more of a threat to the US second week of August.

[SFLcane]

12z UKMET
https://i.imgur.com/OkGtpD9.png

It then ends the run getting close to going back into the Atlantic near Melbourne, FL

[BobHarlem]

 https://twitter.com/cfhc/status/1818017193520742657

[Keldeo1997]

Edit: By bad didn't see the hour

[AtlanticWind]

That’s not this system

[AtlanticWind]

 https://x.com/reid_lt/status/1818003115561644505

Not this system

[cycloneye]

Are we going there? A lottery?

[AtlanticWind]

 https://x.com/reid_lt/status/1818003115561644505

Not this system

That’s 360 hour

[toad strangler]

https://twitter.com/cfhc/status/1818017193520742657

Whoever that is labeled SAL this year as an “echo of 2013”

[Ubuntwo]

https://twitter.com/cfhc/status/1818017193520742657

Whoever that is labeled SAL this year as an “echo of 2013”

‘Significant development south of those islands might favor central America to Mexico.’… where are they seeing that potential? And there is no gyre, it’s a wave. Can’t take this seriously.

[Stratton23]

Ubuntwo i dont know who is saying that, no chance of this wave impacting CA or Mexico with that weakness over the SE US, farthest west i can see is maybe around new orleans, i dont know why they would mention CA or Mexico

[BobHarlem]

i thought the main point was the second area behind the highlighted area on the outlook is where to watch for development especially if they merge similar to what wxman57 said, only if something crazy like the southern one taking over would something like CA occur, but so low to not really take it into account.

[Ubuntwo]

i thought the main point was the second area behind the highlighted area on the outlook is where to watch for development especially if they merge similar to what wxman57 said, only if something crazy like the southern one taking over would something like CA occur, but so low to not really take it into account.

The low currently to the south is expected to pivot north in a fujiwhara, and may even end up north of the main wave envelope before merging. GFS has been developing (on and off) a lobe of vorticity that spins up as part of the wave axis crosses over Hispaniola from interaction w the mountains. That's as close to a south side takeover as we could get, and why there is some bifurcation between the Gulf and SW Atlantic solution. Central America is so far outside the ensemble spread it doesn't even warrant discussion. They may have been looking at long range ensembles with a separate system developing in that region.

[Ubuntwo]

GFS handling of the initial interaction doesn't really differ from other models. But its upper level setup? Night and day.

Take a look at the GFS' shear early on August 1st, while the wave is just northeast of PR. The wave would be dealing with 20kt of shear at this point, decoupling the developing area of vorticity severely and injecting dry air.


The Euro at the same time? Vastly different. There is an anticyclone situated over the wave envelope. Shear is almost negligible. The wave starts slowly building momentum starting here on the model.


The CMC is quite similar to the Euro as well.


The end result? By this frame, the 500mb and 850mb vorticity maxima are displaced by over 400 miles (!) on the GFS. The GFS is all alone in this short term high-shear solution.

[chaser1]

Well THIS is fun (from a meteorological cyclogenesis perspective)! It may be high time for a quick 48 hr. "flash" poll regarding where whether something actually forms in the W. Atlantic by Aug. 7th, and where!
I personally don't remember myself being on the opposite side of NHC and Wxman, where I was on the "no development" side of the coin